For Sligo Rovers, we analyze their last 8 matches, taking into account various factors such as the quality of their performance, the match results, the location of the match (whether it was played at home or away), and the strength of their opponents. To determine the strength of the opponents, we look at the results of their previous matches. For each game, we will give the team Sligo Rovers conditional points, which later will be used to determine the favorite.
12/07
Away
25 Bohemians Dublin
2:0
+102
04/07
Home
36 Derry City
2:1
+45
28/06
Home
35 Shamrock Rovers
2:0
+76
13/06
Away
23 Dundalk
0:1
+24
07/06
Away
32 Waterford
1:4
+3
03/06
Home
18 Drogheda Utd
2:1
+20
31/05
Away
39 Shelbourne
2:1
+70
24/05
Away
36 Derry City
2:2
+39
Similarly, for Galway United, we analyze their last 8 matches using the same approach.
12/07
Home
32 Waterford
1:0
+62
04/07
Home
25 Bohemians Dublin
1:1
+24
28/06
Away
39 Shelbourne
0:2
+6
13/06
Home
18 Drogheda Utd
3:0
+74
07/06
Away
36 Derry City
0:2
+6
31/05
Away
24 St Patrick's
1:2
+18
24/05
Home
23 Dundalk
2:0
+49
17/05
Away
18 Drogheda Utd
3:2
+28
After analyzing both teams' last 8 matches, we've assigned 377 points to the home team and 267 points to the away team. This suggests that one team has an advantage over the other. However, it's important to consider that the home team (Sligo Rovers) is playing on their own turf, which may slightly improve their chances of winning.
Accumulated points
To determine what percentage of victories each team achieves at home and away, we've compiled statistics from several recent years to eliminate any chance-related factors. It turns out that 65.08% of victories for the team Sligo Rovers occurred in home matches. For the team Galway United this indicator is 55.56%. On average, this equates to 60.32%, suggesting a slight advantage for Sligo Rovers all other things being equal.
Percentage of home wins by teams
Sligo Rovers
Sligo Rovers 65.08%
Galway United
Galway United 55.56%
Average
Average 60.32%
Now, to determine the favorite of the match, we will take 60.32% of the home team's points and 39.68% of the away team's points. It turns out that the favorite of the match is Sligo Rovers with an advantage of 228 points against 106. If we convert it to a percentage ratio, it will be 68.21% to 31.79%.
Points earned with home win percentage
Now let's see who the bookmakers consider the favorite and compare their data with our calculations. The bookmakers estimate the probability of a draw in this match at 30.21% with a coefficient of 3.31. The coefficient for the home team's victory is 3.5, and for the away team's victory it is 2.43. If we exclude the draw, the probability of the home team's victory will be 40.93%, and the away team's victory - 59.08%. This differs from our calculations.
Comparison of calculated data with bookmakers
Bookmakers
Our calculation
As a result of the analysis conducted, an inaccuracy was found in the bookmaker's line. In our opinion, the probability of Sligo Rovers's victory is an order of magnitude higher than what the bookmakers think. The difference is 27.14%. The coefficient for the team's victory is 3.5, while in reality, it should be 2.1.
Comparison with bookmakers odds
Home Win
Draw
Away Win
Bookmakers
3.5
3.31
2.43
Our calculation
2.1
3.31
4.51
Our mathematical algorithm has detected significant inaccuracies in the bookmakers' odds for this match. Such a large difference can only mean that we have not taken into account some important factor that allows the bookmakers to set such odds. We cannot confidently recommend using our prediction for betting on this match, as the potential profit will be minimal.
Home Win
3.5
2024 June
QUANTITY 1383
ROI +10.03%
EARNINGS +$13868
2024 July
QUANTITY 1211
ROI +7.75%
EARNINGS +$9384
15 July 2024 - 21 July 2024
QUANTITY 280
ROI +14.85%
EARNINGS +$4158
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