Nea Salamis vs APOEL prediction

Nea Salamis

Match start date: Jan 8, 2025

VS

Tournament: Cyprus. 1st Division

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APOEL

Our app uses a special algorithm to predict the outcome of the match between Nea Salamis and APOEL. This algorithm is designed to detect any inaccuracies in the bookmakers' odds by analyzing a vast amount of input data.

Nea Salamis

For Nea Salamis, we analyze their last 8 matches, taking into account various factors such as the quality of their performance, the match results, the location of the match (whether it was played at home or away), and the strength of their opponents. To determine the strength of the opponents, we look at the results of their previous matches. For each game, we will give the team Nea Salamis conditional points, which later will be used to determine the favorite.

04/01

Home

28 Ethnikos Achnas

0:3

+2

22/12

Away

41 Omonia Nicosia

0:3

+4

16/12

Home

54 Paphos

0:2

+7

08/12

Home

29 Apollon Limassol

1:0

+49

01/12

Away

22 Omonia Aradippou

0:1

+17

23/11

Home

10 Omonia 29 Maiou

0:1

+7

09/11

Away

19 Karmiotissa

2:2

+18

01/11

Home

15 Enosis

1:0

+20

APOEL

Similarly, for APOEL, we analyze their last 8 matches using the same approach.

04/01

Home

19 Karmiotissa

3:0

+90

23/12

Away

28 Ethnikos Achnas

2:2

+38

15/12

Home

15 Enosis

2:0

+42

07/12

Away

41 Omonia Nicosia

2:2

+50

02/12

Home

51 Aris Limassol

1:2

+32

23/11

Away

54 Paphos

1:2

+46

10/11

Home

27 AEL Limassol

4:0

+90

02/11

Away

29 Apollon Limassol

0:0

+25

Identifying the favourite

After analyzing both teams' last 8 matches, we've assigned 124 points to the home team and 414 points to the away team. This suggests that one team has an advantage over the other. However, it's important to consider that the home team (Nea Salamis) is playing on their own turf, which may slightly improve their chances of winning.

Accumulated points

Nea Salamis 124
APOEL 414

To determine what percentage of victories each team achieves at home and away, we've compiled statistics from several recent years to eliminate any chance-related factors. It turns out that 54.84% of victories for the team Nea Salamis occurred in home matches. For the team APOEL this indicator is 56.67%. On average, this equates to 55.75%, suggesting a slight advantage for Nea Salamis all other things being equal.

Percentage of home wins by teams

Nea Salamis

Nea Salamis 54.84%

APOEL

APOEL 56.67%

Average

Average 55.75%

Now, to determine the favorite of the match, we will take 55.75% of the home team's points and 44.25% of the away team's points. It turns out that the favorite of the match is APOEL with an advantage of 183 points against 69. If we convert it to a percentage ratio, it will be 72.65% to 27.35%.

Points earned with home win percentage

Nea Salamis 69
APOEL 183

Bookmakers odds and probability

Now let's see who the bookmakers consider the favorite and compare their data with our calculations. The bookmakers estimate the probability of a draw in this match at 19.46% with a coefficient of 5.14. The coefficient for the home team's victory is 8.13, and for the away team's victory it is 1.47. If we exclude the draw, the probability of the home team's victory will be 15.27%, and the away team's victory - 84.73%. This differs from our calculations.

Comparison of calculated data with bookmakers

Bookmakers

Nea Salamis 15.27%
APOEL 84.73%

Our calculation

Nea Salamis 27.35%
APOEL 72.65%

Match prediction

As a result of the analysis conducted, an inaccuracy was found in the bookmaker's line. In our opinion, the probability of Nea Salamis's victory is an order of magnitude higher than what the bookmakers think. The difference is 11.72%. The coefficient for the team's victory is 8.13, while in reality, it should be 4.54.

Comparison with bookmakers odds

Home Win

Draw

Away Win

Bookmakers

8.13

5.14

1.47

Our calculation

4.54

5.14

1.71

We suggest using our prediction. But we do not guarantee that the bet will definitely win. Our strategy is designed to generate profits over the long term.

Home Win

8.13

Our prediction statistics

2024 December

QUANTITY 2250

ROI +3.69%

EARNINGS +$8294

2025 January

QUANTITY 333

ROI +11.35%

EARNINGS +$3779

7 January 2025

QUANTITY 9

ROI +94.67%

EARNINGS +$852

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