For Nea Salamis, we analyze their last 8 matches, taking into account various factors such as the quality of their performance, the match results, the location of the match (whether it was played at home or away), and the strength of their opponents. To determine the strength of the opponents, we look at the results of their previous matches. For each game, we will give the team Nea Salamis conditional points, which later will be used to determine the favorite.
04/01
Home
28 Ethnikos Achnas
0:3
+2
22/12
Away
41 Omonia Nicosia
0:3
+4
16/12
Home
54 Paphos
0:2
+7
08/12
Home
29 Apollon Limassol
1:0
+49
01/12
Away
22 Omonia Aradippou
0:1
+17
23/11
Home
10 Omonia 29 Maiou
0:1
+7
09/11
Away
19 Karmiotissa
2:2
+18
01/11
Home
15 Enosis
1:0
+20
Similarly, for APOEL, we analyze their last 8 matches using the same approach.
04/01
Home
19 Karmiotissa
3:0
+90
23/12
Away
28 Ethnikos Achnas
2:2
+38
15/12
Home
15 Enosis
2:0
+42
07/12
Away
41 Omonia Nicosia
2:2
+50
02/12
Home
51 Aris Limassol
1:2
+32
23/11
Away
54 Paphos
1:2
+46
10/11
Home
27 AEL Limassol
4:0
+90
02/11
Away
29 Apollon Limassol
0:0
+25
After analyzing both teams' last 8 matches, we've assigned 124 points to the home team and 414 points to the away team. This suggests that one team has an advantage over the other. However, it's important to consider that the home team (Nea Salamis) is playing on their own turf, which may slightly improve their chances of winning.
Accumulated points
To determine what percentage of victories each team achieves at home and away, we've compiled statistics from several recent years to eliminate any chance-related factors. It turns out that 54.84% of victories for the team Nea Salamis occurred in home matches. For the team APOEL this indicator is 56.67%. On average, this equates to 55.75%, suggesting a slight advantage for Nea Salamis all other things being equal.
Percentage of home wins by teams
Nea Salamis
Nea Salamis 54.84%
APOEL
APOEL 56.67%
Average
Average 55.75%
Now, to determine the favorite of the match, we will take 55.75% of the home team's points and 44.25% of the away team's points. It turns out that the favorite of the match is APOEL with an advantage of 183 points against 69. If we convert it to a percentage ratio, it will be 72.65% to 27.35%.
Points earned with home win percentage
Now let's see who the bookmakers consider the favorite and compare their data with our calculations. The bookmakers estimate the probability of a draw in this match at 19.46% with a coefficient of 5.14. The coefficient for the home team's victory is 8.13, and for the away team's victory it is 1.47. If we exclude the draw, the probability of the home team's victory will be 15.27%, and the away team's victory - 84.73%. This differs from our calculations.
Comparison of calculated data with bookmakers
Bookmakers
Our calculation
As a result of the analysis conducted, an inaccuracy was found in the bookmaker's line. In our opinion, the probability of Nea Salamis's victory is an order of magnitude higher than what the bookmakers think. The difference is 11.72%. The coefficient for the team's victory is 8.13, while in reality, it should be 4.54.
Comparison with bookmakers odds
Home Win
Draw
Away Win
Bookmakers
8.13
5.14
1.47
Our calculation
4.54
5.14
1.71
We suggest using our prediction. But we do not guarantee that the bet will definitely win. Our strategy is designed to generate profits over the long term.
Home Win
8.13
2024 December
QUANTITY 2250
ROI +3.69%
EARNINGS +$8294
2025 January
QUANTITY 333
ROI +11.35%
EARNINGS +$3779
7 January 2025
QUANTITY 9
ROI +94.67%
EARNINGS +$852
Scotland. Premiership
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