Al-Fateh vs Al-Wahda Mecca prediction

Al-Fateh

Match start date: Jan 9, 2025

VS

Tournament: Saudi Arabia. Pro League

Place a bet

Al-Wahda Mecca

Our app uses a special algorithm to predict the outcome of the match between Al-Fateh and Al-Wahda Mecca. This algorithm is designed to detect any inaccuracies in the bookmakers' odds by analyzing a vast amount of input data.

Al-Fateh

For Al-Fateh, we analyze their last 8 matches, taking into account various factors such as the quality of their performance, the match results, the location of the match (whether it was played at home or away), and the strength of their opponents. To determine the strength of the opponents, we look at the results of their previous matches. For each game, we will give the team Al-Fateh conditional points, which later will be used to determine the favorite.

05/12

Away

37 Al-Shabab Riyadh

2:2

+49

28/11

Home

33 Al-Riyadh

1:2

+30

24/11

Away

59 Al-Ittihad Jeddah

0:2

+10

09/11

Home

31 Al-Khaleej Saihat

1:2

+23

02/11

Home

14 Al-Fayha

1:1

+12

26/10

Away

24 Al-Raed

1:2

+18

20/10

Home

17 Al-Kholood

1:1

+13

05/10

Away

29 Al-Taawon

0:2

+4

Al-Wahda Mecca

Similarly, for Al-Wahda Mecca, we analyze their last 8 matches using the same approach.

05/12

Home

21 Al-Okhdood

2:3

+17

29/11

Away

39 Al-Ahli Jeddah

0:1

+36

23/11

Home

29 Al-Taawon

1:0

+48

09/11

Home

24 Damac

2:3

+17

31/10

Away

37 Al-Shabab Riyadh

1:3

+6

24/10

Home

31 Al-Khaleej Saihat

1:3

+4

19/10

Away

24 Al-Raed

2:2

+22

03/10

Home

14 Al-Fayha

2:2

+11

Identifying the favourite

After analyzing both teams' last 8 matches, we've assigned 159 points to the home team and 159 points to the away team. This suggests that one team has an advantage over the other. However, it's important to consider that the home team (Al-Fateh) is playing on their own turf, which may slightly improve their chances of winning.

Accumulated points

Al-Fateh 159
Al-Wahda Mecca 159

To determine what percentage of victories each team achieves at home and away, we've compiled statistics from several recent years to eliminate any chance-related factors. It turns out that 55% of victories for the team Al-Fateh occurred in home matches. For the team Al-Wahda Mecca this indicator is 54.1%. On average, this equates to 54.55%, suggesting a slight advantage for Al-Fateh all other things being equal.

Percentage of home wins by teams

Al-Fateh

Al-Fateh 55%

Al-Wahda Mecca

Al-Wahda Mecca 54.1%

Average

Average 54.55%

Now, to determine the favorite of the match, we will take 54.55% of the home team's points and 45.45% of the away team's points. It turns out that the favorite of the match is Al-Fateh with an advantage of 87 points against 72. If we convert it to a percentage ratio, it will be 54.57% to 45.43%.

Points earned with home win percentage

Al-Fateh 87
Al-Wahda Mecca 72

Bookmakers odds and probability

Now let's see who the bookmakers consider the favorite and compare their data with our calculations. The bookmakers estimate the probability of a draw in this match at 26.25% with a coefficient of 3.81. The coefficient for the home team's victory is 2.52, and for the away team's victory it is 2.94. If we exclude the draw, the probability of the home team's victory will be 53.89%, and the away team's victory - 46.11%. This differs from our calculations.

Comparison of calculated data with bookmakers

Bookmakers

Al-Fateh 53.89%
Al-Wahda Mecca 46.11%

Our calculation

Al-Fateh 54.57%
Al-Wahda Mecca 45.43%

Match prediction

As a result of the analysis conducted, an inaccuracy was found in the bookmaker's line. In our opinion, the probability of Al-Fateh's victory is an order of magnitude higher than what the bookmakers think. The difference is 0.68%. The coefficient for the team's victory is 2.52, while in reality, it should be 2.48.

Comparison with bookmakers odds

Home Win

Draw

Away Win

Bookmakers

2.52

3.81

2.94

Our calculation

2.48

3.81

2.98

The mathematical analysis of the betting odds for this match did not reveal any significant inaccuracies. We cannot confidently recommend using our forecast for bets on this match, as the potential profit will be minimal.

Home Win

2.52

Our prediction statistics

2024 December

QUANTITY 2250

ROI +3.69%

EARNINGS +$8294

2025 January

QUANTITY 343

ROI +9.96%

EARNINGS +$3416

Saudi Arabia. Pro League

QUANTITY 309

ROI +7.13%

EARNINGS +$2204

Current football predictions

Saudi Arabia. Pro League

18:00

Al-Riyadh - Al-Khaleej Saihat

Away Win

3.07

20:00

Al-Nasr Riyadh - Al-Okhdood

Away Win

10.24

17:45

Al-Fateh - Al-Wahda Mecca

Home Win

2.52

Scotland. Premiership

23:00

Dundee - Rangers

Home Win

9.81