Montpellier vs Brest prediction

Montpellier

Match start date: Nov 10, 2024

VS

Tournament: France. Ligue 1

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Brest

Our app uses a special algorithm to predict the outcome of the match between Montpellier and Brest. This algorithm is designed to detect any inaccuracies in the bookmakers' odds by analyzing a vast amount of input data.

Montpellier

For Montpellier, we analyze their last 8 matches, taking into account various factors such as the quality of their performance, the match results, the location of the match (whether it was played at home or away), and the strength of their opponents. To determine the strength of the opponents, we look at the results of their previous matches. For each game, we will give the team Montpellier conditional points, which later will be used to determine the favorite.

03/11

Away

20 Le Havre

0:1

+19

27/10

Home

27 Toulouse

0:3

+3

20/10

Home

40 Marseille

0:5

+2

06/10

Away

30 Reims

2:4

+4

28/09

Away

45 Monaco

1:2

+33

22/09

Home

32 Auxerre

3:2

+46

15/09

Away

25 Rennes

0:3

+2

31/08

Home

21 Nantes

1:3

+3

Brest

Similarly, for Brest, we analyze their last 8 matches using the same approach.

02/11

Home

35 Nice

0:1

+26

26/10

Away

30 Reims

2:1

+63

19/10

Home

25 Rennes

1:1

+21

06/10

Home

20 Le Havre

2:0

+47

27/09

Away

32 Auxerre

0:3

+3

22/09

Home

27 Toulouse

2:0

+67

14/09

Away

58 Paris Saint-Germain

1:3

+7

31/08

Home

22 Saint-Etienne

4:0

+79

Identifying the favourite

After analyzing both teams' last 8 matches, we've assigned 111 points to the home team and 313 points to the away team. This suggests that one team has an advantage over the other. However, it's important to consider that the home team (Montpellier) is playing on their own turf, which may slightly improve their chances of winning.

Accumulated points

Montpellier 111
Brest 313

To determine what percentage of victories each team achieves at home and away, we've compiled statistics from several recent years to eliminate any chance-related factors. It turns out that 50% of victories for the team Montpellier occurred in home matches. For the team Brest this indicator is 58.33%. On average, this equates to 54.17%, suggesting a slight advantage for Montpellier all other things being equal.

Percentage of home wins by teams

Montpellier

Montpellier 50%

Brest

Brest 58.33%

Average

Average 54.17%

Now, to determine the favorite of the match, we will take 54.17% of the home team's points and 45.83% of the away team's points. It turns out that the favorite of the match is Brest with an advantage of 143 points against 60. If we convert it to a percentage ratio, it will be 70.42% to 29.58%.

Points earned with home win percentage

Montpellier 60
Brest 143

Bookmakers odds and probability

Now let's see who the bookmakers consider the favorite and compare their data with our calculations. The bookmakers estimate the probability of a draw in this match at 30.3% with a coefficient of 3.3. The coefficient for the home team's victory is 3.08, and for the away team's victory it is 2.68. If we exclude the draw, the probability of the home team's victory will be 46.53%, and the away team's victory - 53.47%. This differs from our calculations.

Comparison of calculated data with bookmakers

Bookmakers

Montpellier 46.53%
Brest 53.47%

Our calculation

Montpellier 29.58%
Brest 70.42%

Match prediction

As a result of the analysis conducted, an inaccuracy was found in the bookmaker's line. In our opinion, the probability of Brest's victory is an order of magnitude higher than what the bookmakers think. The difference is 10.78%. The coefficient for the team's victory is 2.68, while in reality, it should be 2.04.

Comparison with bookmakers odds

Home Win

Draw

Away Win

Bookmakers

3.08

3.3

2.68

Our calculation

4.85

3.3

2.04

We suggest using our prediction. But we do not guarantee that the bet will definitely win. Our strategy is designed to generate profits over the long term.

Away Win

2.68

Our prediction statistics

2024 October

QUANTITY 2852

ROI +7.78%

EARNINGS +$22186

France. Ligue 1

QUANTITY 444

ROI +14.22%

EARNINGS +$6312

9 November 2024

QUANTITY 367

ROI +6.56%

EARNINGS +$2406

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