For Miramar Misiones, we analyze their last 8 matches, taking into account various factors such as the quality of their performance, the match results, the location of the match (whether it was played at home or away), and the strength of their opponents. To determine the strength of the opponents, we look at the results of their previous matches. For each game, we will give the team Miramar Misiones conditional points, which later will be used to determine the favorite.
20/07
Away
48 Nacional Montevideo
0:4
+3
13/07
Away
33 Boston River
1:2
+27
08/07
Home
24 Danubio
2:3
+20
23/06
Away
21 Rampla Juniors
2:1
+35
15/06
Home
26 Cerro
1:0
+42
08/06
Away
21 Liverpool Montevideo
1:0
+35
02/06
Away
39 Defensor Sporting
0:3
+3
25/05
Home
30 Montevideo Wanderers
2:0
+74
Similarly, for Cerro Largo, we analyze their last 8 matches using the same approach.
20/07
Home
21 Rampla Juniors
0:1
+18
14/07
Away
26 Cerro
1:0
+52
06/07
Home
21 Liverpool Montevideo
1:0
+31
23/06
Home
48 Nacional Montevideo
0:4
+2
17/06
Away
33 Boston River
2:0
+94
09/06
Home
24 Danubio
2:2
+19
04/06
Away
27 Progreso
1:0
+45
26/05
Home
39 Defensor Sporting
1:3
+4
After analyzing both teams' last 8 matches, we've assigned 239 points to the home team and 266 points to the away team. This suggests that one team has an advantage over the other. However, it's important to consider that the home team (Miramar Misiones) is playing on their own turf, which may slightly improve their chances of winning.
Accumulated points
To determine what percentage of victories each team achieves at home and away, we've compiled statistics from several recent years to eliminate any chance-related factors. It turns out that 45.28% of victories for the team Miramar Misiones occurred in home matches. For the team Cerro Largo this indicator is 50.88%. On average, this equates to 48.08%, suggesting a slight advantage for Miramar Misiones all other things being equal.
Percentage of home wins by teams
Miramar Misiones
Miramar Misiones 45.28%
Cerro Largo
Cerro Largo 50.88%
Average
Average 48.08%
Now, to determine the favorite of the match, we will take 48.08% of the home team's points and 51.92% of the away team's points. It turns out that the favorite of the match is Cerro Largo with an advantage of 138 points against 115. If we convert it to a percentage ratio, it will be 54.6% to 45.4%.
Points earned with home win percentage
Now let's see who the bookmakers consider the favorite and compare their data with our calculations. The bookmakers estimate the probability of a draw in this match at 29.94% with a coefficient of 3.34. The coefficient for the home team's victory is 2.86, and for the away team's victory it is 2.85. If we exclude the draw, the probability of the home team's victory will be 49.86%, and the away team's victory - 50.14%. This differs from our calculations.
Comparison of calculated data with bookmakers
Bookmakers
Our calculation
As a result of the analysis conducted, an inaccuracy was found in the bookmaker's line. In our opinion, the probability of Cerro Largo's victory is an order of magnitude higher than what the bookmakers think. The difference is 5.18%. The coefficient for the team's victory is 2.85, while in reality, it should be 2.61.
Comparison with bookmakers odds
Home Win
Draw
Away Win
Bookmakers
2.86
3.34
2.85
Our calculation
3.14
3.34
2.61
We suggest using our prediction. But we do not guarantee that the bet will definitely win. Our strategy is designed to generate profits over the long term.
Away Win
2.85
2024 June
QUANTITY 1383
ROI +10.03%
EARNINGS +$13868
2024 July
QUANTITY 1211
ROI +7.75%
EARNINGS +$9384
15 July 2024 - 21 July 2024
QUANTITY 280
ROI +14.85%
EARNINGS +$4158
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