Manchester United vs Newcastle United prediction

Manchester United

Match start date: Dec 30, 2024

VS

Tournament: England. Premier League

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Newcastle United

Our app uses a special algorithm to predict the outcome of the match between Manchester United and Newcastle United. This algorithm is designed to detect any inaccuracies in the bookmakers' odds by analyzing a vast amount of input data.

Manchester United

For Manchester United, we analyze their last 8 matches, taking into account various factors such as the quality of their performance, the match results, the location of the match (whether it was played at home or away), and the strength of their opponents. To determine the strength of the opponents, we look at the results of their previous matches. For each game, we will give the team Manchester United conditional points, which later will be used to determine the favorite.

26/12

Away

20 Wolverhampton Wanderers

0:2

+4

22/12

Home

34 Bournemouth

0:3

+3

15/12

Away

35 Manchester City

2:1

+70

07/12

Home

41 Nottingham Forest

2:3

+29

04/12

Away

44 Arsenal

0:2

+7

01/12

Home

21 Everton

4:0

+90

24/11

Away

15 Ipswich Town

1:1

+14

10/11

Home

16 Leicester City

3:0

+55

Newcastle United

Similarly, for Newcastle United, we analyze their last 8 matches using the same approach.

26/12

Home

33 Aston Villa

3:0

+125

21/12

Away

15 Ipswich Town

4:0

+101

14/12

Home

16 Leicester City

4:0

+68

07/12

Away

29 Brentford

2:4

+5

04/12

Home

54 Liverpool

3:3

+38

30/11

Away

23 Crystal Palace

1:1

+25

25/11

Home

26 West Ham United

0:2

+2

10/11

Away

41 Nottingham Forest

3:1

+113

Identifying the favourite

After analyzing both teams' last 8 matches, we've assigned 272 points to the home team and 477 points to the away team. This suggests that one team has an advantage over the other. However, it's important to consider that the home team (Manchester United) is playing on their own turf, which may slightly improve their chances of winning.

Accumulated points

Manchester United 272
Newcastle United 477

To determine what percentage of victories each team achieves at home and away, we've compiled statistics from several recent years to eliminate any chance-related factors. It turns out that 53.97% of victories for the team Manchester United occurred in home matches. For the team Newcastle United this indicator is 66.67%. On average, this equates to 60.32%, suggesting a slight advantage for Manchester United all other things being equal.

Percentage of home wins by teams

Manchester United

Manchester United 53.97%

Newcastle United

Newcastle United 66.67%

Average

Average 60.32%

Now, to determine the favorite of the match, we will take 60.32% of the home team's points and 39.68% of the away team's points. It turns out that the favorite of the match is Newcastle United with an advantage of 189 points against 164. If we convert it to a percentage ratio, it will be 53.6% to 46.4%.

Points earned with home win percentage

Manchester United 164
Newcastle United 189

Bookmakers odds and probability

Now let's see who the bookmakers consider the favorite and compare their data with our calculations. The bookmakers estimate the probability of a draw in this match at 27.17% with a coefficient of 3.68. The coefficient for the home team's victory is 2.75, and for the away team's victory it is 2.75. If we exclude the draw, the probability of the home team's victory will be 50%, and the away team's victory - 50%. This differs from our calculations.

Comparison of calculated data with bookmakers

Bookmakers

Manchester United 50%
Newcastle United 50%

Our calculation

Manchester United 46.4%
Newcastle United 53.6%

Match prediction

As a result of the analysis conducted, an inaccuracy was found in the bookmaker's line. In our opinion, the probability of Newcastle United's victory is an order of magnitude higher than what the bookmakers think. The difference is 1.29%. The coefficient for the team's victory is 2.75, while in reality, it should be 2.56.

Comparison with bookmakers odds

Home Win

Draw

Away Win

Bookmakers

2.75

3.68

2.75

Our calculation

2.96

3.68

2.56

The mathematical analysis of the betting odds for this match did not reveal any significant inaccuracies. We cannot confidently recommend using our forecast for bets on this match, as the potential profit will be minimal.

Away Win

2.75

Our prediction statistics

2024 December

QUANTITY 2250

ROI +3.69%

EARNINGS +$8294

30 December 2024

QUANTITY 14

ROI +103%

EARNINGS +$1442

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