For Manchester United, we analyze their last 8 matches, taking into account various factors such as the quality of their performance, the match results, the location of the match (whether it was played at home or away), and the strength of their opponents. To determine the strength of the opponents, we look at the results of their previous matches. For each game, we will give the team Manchester United conditional points, which later will be used to determine the favorite.
26/12
Away
20 Wolverhampton Wanderers
0:2
+4
22/12
Home
34 Bournemouth
0:3
+3
15/12
Away
35 Manchester City
2:1
+70
07/12
Home
41 Nottingham Forest
2:3
+29
04/12
Away
44 Arsenal
0:2
+7
01/12
Home
21 Everton
4:0
+90
24/11
Away
15 Ipswich Town
1:1
+14
10/11
Home
16 Leicester City
3:0
+55
Similarly, for Newcastle United, we analyze their last 8 matches using the same approach.
26/12
Home
33 Aston Villa
3:0
+125
21/12
Away
15 Ipswich Town
4:0
+101
14/12
Home
16 Leicester City
4:0
+68
07/12
Away
29 Brentford
2:4
+5
04/12
Home
54 Liverpool
3:3
+38
30/11
Away
23 Crystal Palace
1:1
+25
25/11
Home
26 West Ham United
0:2
+2
10/11
Away
41 Nottingham Forest
3:1
+113
After analyzing both teams' last 8 matches, we've assigned 272 points to the home team and 477 points to the away team. This suggests that one team has an advantage over the other. However, it's important to consider that the home team (Manchester United) is playing on their own turf, which may slightly improve their chances of winning.
Accumulated points
To determine what percentage of victories each team achieves at home and away, we've compiled statistics from several recent years to eliminate any chance-related factors. It turns out that 53.97% of victories for the team Manchester United occurred in home matches. For the team Newcastle United this indicator is 66.67%. On average, this equates to 60.32%, suggesting a slight advantage for Manchester United all other things being equal.
Percentage of home wins by teams
Manchester United
Manchester United 53.97%
Newcastle United
Newcastle United 66.67%
Average
Average 60.32%
Now, to determine the favorite of the match, we will take 60.32% of the home team's points and 39.68% of the away team's points. It turns out that the favorite of the match is Newcastle United with an advantage of 189 points against 164. If we convert it to a percentage ratio, it will be 53.6% to 46.4%.
Points earned with home win percentage
Now let's see who the bookmakers consider the favorite and compare their data with our calculations. The bookmakers estimate the probability of a draw in this match at 27.17% with a coefficient of 3.68. The coefficient for the home team's victory is 2.75, and for the away team's victory it is 2.75. If we exclude the draw, the probability of the home team's victory will be 50%, and the away team's victory - 50%. This differs from our calculations.
Comparison of calculated data with bookmakers
Bookmakers
Our calculation
As a result of the analysis conducted, an inaccuracy was found in the bookmaker's line. In our opinion, the probability of Newcastle United's victory is an order of magnitude higher than what the bookmakers think. The difference is 1.29%. The coefficient for the team's victory is 2.75, while in reality, it should be 2.56.
Comparison with bookmakers odds
Home Win
Draw
Away Win
Bookmakers
2.75
3.68
2.75
Our calculation
2.96
3.68
2.56
The mathematical analysis of the betting odds for this match did not reveal any significant inaccuracies. We cannot confidently recommend using our forecast for bets on this match, as the potential profit will be minimal.
Away Win
2.75
2024 December
QUANTITY 2250
ROI +3.69%
EARNINGS +$8294
30 December 2024
QUANTITY 14
ROI +103%
EARNINGS +$1442
Scotland. Premiership
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