For Hearts, we analyze their last 8 matches, taking into account various factors such as the quality of their performance, the match results, the location of the match (whether it was played at home or away), and the strength of their opponents. To determine the strength of the opponents, we look at the results of their previous matches. For each game, we will give the team Hearts conditional points, which later will be used to determine the favorite.
29/12
Away
21 Ross County
2:2
+28
26/12
Home
26 Hibernian
1:2
+20
22/12
Home
16 St Johnstone
2:1
+26
15/12
Away
22 Kilmarnock
0:1
+22
07/12
Home
25 Dundee
2:0
+63
01/12
Home
37 Aberdeen
1:1
+29
23/11
Home
62 Celtic
1:4
+4
10/11
Away
42 Rangers
0:1
+31
Similarly, for Motherwell, we analyze their last 8 matches using the same approach.
29/12
Home
42 Rangers
2:2
+41
26/12
Away
62 Celtic
0:4
+4
20/12
Home
22 Kilmarnock
1:1
+19
14/12
Home
35 Dundee United
4:3
+54
07/12
Away
28 St Mirren
1:0
+54
04/12
Away
25 Dundee
1:4
+2
30/11
Home
26 Hibernian
0:3
+2
23/11
Away
21 Ross County
1:2
+15
After analyzing both teams' last 8 matches, we've assigned 223 points to the home team and 190 points to the away team. This suggests that one team has an advantage over the other. However, it's important to consider that the home team (Hearts) is playing on their own turf, which may slightly improve their chances of winning.
Accumulated points
To determine what percentage of victories each team achieves at home and away, we've compiled statistics from several recent years to eliminate any chance-related factors. It turns out that 56.67% of victories for the team Hearts occurred in home matches. For the team Motherwell this indicator is 55.17%. On average, this equates to 55.92%, suggesting a slight advantage for Hearts all other things being equal.
Percentage of home wins by teams
Hearts
Hearts 56.67%
Motherwell
Motherwell 55.17%
Average
Average 55.92%
Now, to determine the favorite of the match, we will take 55.92% of the home team's points and 44.08% of the away team's points. It turns out that the favorite of the match is Hearts with an advantage of 125 points against 84. If we convert it to a percentage ratio, it will be 59.8% to 40.2%.
Points earned with home win percentage
Now let's see who the bookmakers consider the favorite and compare their data with our calculations. The bookmakers estimate the probability of a draw in this match at 24.15% with a coefficient of 4.14. The coefficient for the home team's victory is 1.76, and for the away team's victory it is 5.23. If we exclude the draw, the probability of the home team's victory will be 74.77%, and the away team's victory - 25.23%. This differs from our calculations.
Comparison of calculated data with bookmakers
Bookmakers
Our calculation
As a result of the analysis conducted, an inaccuracy was found in the bookmaker's line. In our opinion, the probability of Motherwell's victory is an order of magnitude higher than what the bookmakers think. The difference is 10.97%. The coefficient for the team's victory is 5.23, while in reality, it should be 3.28.
Comparison with bookmakers odds
Home Win
Draw
Away Win
Bookmakers
1.76
4.14
5.23
Our calculation
2.2
4.14
3.28
We suggest using our prediction. But we do not guarantee that the bet will definitely win. Our strategy is designed to generate profits over the long term.
Away Win
5.23
2024 December
QUANTITY 2250
ROI +3.69%
EARNINGS +$8294
23 December 2024 - 29 December 2024
QUANTITY 262
ROI +8.11%
EARNINGS +$2124
2025 January
QUANTITY 229
ROI +6%
EARNINGS +$1374
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