Hearts vs Motherwell prediction

Hearts

Match start date: Jan 2, 2025

VS

Tournament: Scotland. Premiership

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Motherwell

Our app uses a special algorithm to predict the outcome of the match between Hearts and Motherwell. This algorithm is designed to detect any inaccuracies in the bookmakers' odds by analyzing a vast amount of input data.

Hearts

For Hearts, we analyze their last 8 matches, taking into account various factors such as the quality of their performance, the match results, the location of the match (whether it was played at home or away), and the strength of their opponents. To determine the strength of the opponents, we look at the results of their previous matches. For each game, we will give the team Hearts conditional points, which later will be used to determine the favorite.

29/12

Away

21 Ross County

2:2

+28

26/12

Home

26 Hibernian

1:2

+20

22/12

Home

16 St Johnstone

2:1

+26

15/12

Away

22 Kilmarnock

0:1

+22

07/12

Home

25 Dundee

2:0

+63

01/12

Home

37 Aberdeen

1:1

+29

23/11

Home

62 Celtic

1:4

+4

10/11

Away

42 Rangers

0:1

+31

Motherwell

Similarly, for Motherwell, we analyze their last 8 matches using the same approach.

29/12

Home

42 Rangers

2:2

+41

26/12

Away

62 Celtic

0:4

+4

20/12

Home

22 Kilmarnock

1:1

+19

14/12

Home

35 Dundee United

4:3

+54

07/12

Away

28 St Mirren

1:0

+54

04/12

Away

25 Dundee

1:4

+2

30/11

Home

26 Hibernian

0:3

+2

23/11

Away

21 Ross County

1:2

+15

Identifying the favourite

After analyzing both teams' last 8 matches, we've assigned 223 points to the home team and 190 points to the away team. This suggests that one team has an advantage over the other. However, it's important to consider that the home team (Hearts) is playing on their own turf, which may slightly improve their chances of winning.

Accumulated points

Hearts 223
Motherwell 190

To determine what percentage of victories each team achieves at home and away, we've compiled statistics from several recent years to eliminate any chance-related factors. It turns out that 56.67% of victories for the team Hearts occurred in home matches. For the team Motherwell this indicator is 55.17%. On average, this equates to 55.92%, suggesting a slight advantage for Hearts all other things being equal.

Percentage of home wins by teams

Hearts

Hearts 56.67%

Motherwell

Motherwell 55.17%

Average

Average 55.92%

Now, to determine the favorite of the match, we will take 55.92% of the home team's points and 44.08% of the away team's points. It turns out that the favorite of the match is Hearts with an advantage of 125 points against 84. If we convert it to a percentage ratio, it will be 59.8% to 40.2%.

Points earned with home win percentage

Hearts 125
Motherwell 84

Bookmakers odds and probability

Now let's see who the bookmakers consider the favorite and compare their data with our calculations. The bookmakers estimate the probability of a draw in this match at 24.15% with a coefficient of 4.14. The coefficient for the home team's victory is 1.76, and for the away team's victory it is 5.23. If we exclude the draw, the probability of the home team's victory will be 74.77%, and the away team's victory - 25.23%. This differs from our calculations.

Comparison of calculated data with bookmakers

Bookmakers

Hearts 74.77%
Motherwell 25.23%

Our calculation

Hearts 59.8%
Motherwell 40.2%

Match prediction

As a result of the analysis conducted, an inaccuracy was found in the bookmaker's line. In our opinion, the probability of Motherwell's victory is an order of magnitude higher than what the bookmakers think. The difference is 10.97%. The coefficient for the team's victory is 5.23, while in reality, it should be 3.28.

Comparison with bookmakers odds

Home Win

Draw

Away Win

Bookmakers

1.76

4.14

5.23

Our calculation

2.2

4.14

3.28

We suggest using our prediction. But we do not guarantee that the bet will definitely win. Our strategy is designed to generate profits over the long term.

Away Win

5.23

Our prediction statistics

2024 December

QUANTITY 2250

ROI +3.69%

EARNINGS +$8294

23 December 2024 - 29 December 2024

QUANTITY 262

ROI +8.11%

EARNINGS +$2124

2025 January

QUANTITY 229

ROI +6%

EARNINGS +$1374

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