For JEF United, we analyze their last 8 matches, taking into account various factors such as the quality of their performance, the match results, the location of the match (whether it was played at home or away), and the strength of their opponents. To determine the strength of the opponents, we look at the results of their previous matches. For each game, we will give the team JEF United conditional points, which later will be used to determine the favorite.
14/09
Away
26 Blaublitz Akita
0:1
+26
07/09
Home
28 Mito HollyHock
4:0
+129
01/09
Away
20 Oita Trinita
2:0
+71
25/08
Home
35 Vegalta Sendai
4:2
+82
17/08
Home
32 Iwaki
0:3
+2
10/08
Away
32 Fagiano Okayama
0:0
+34
03/08
Away
54 Yokohama FC
1:2
+44
14/07
Home
23 Roasso Kumamoto
0:2
+3
Similarly, for Renofa Yamaguchi, we analyze their last 8 matches using the same approach.
14/09
Away
47 Shimizu S-Pulse
1:4
+5
07/09
Home
35 Tokushima Vortis
1:2
+30
31/08
Home
32 Fagiano Okayama
0:2
+5
24/08
Away
36 V-Varen Nagasaki
2:1
+64
17/08
Away
38 Fujieda
0:3
+3
10/08
Home
16 Tochigi
4:3
+21
03/08
Home
20 Oita Trinita
2:0
+50
14/07
Away
26 Blaublitz Akita
0:1
+16
After analyzing both teams' last 8 matches, we've assigned 391 points to the home team and 195 points to the away team. This suggests that one team has an advantage over the other. However, it's important to consider that the home team (JEF United) is playing on their own turf, which may slightly improve their chances of winning.
Accumulated points
To determine what percentage of victories each team achieves at home and away, we've compiled statistics from several recent years to eliminate any chance-related factors. It turns out that 66.15% of victories for the team JEF United occurred in home matches. For the team Renofa Yamaguchi this indicator is 52.54%. On average, this equates to 59.35%, suggesting a slight advantage for JEF United all other things being equal.
Percentage of home wins by teams
JEF United
JEF United 66.15%
Renofa Yamaguchi
Renofa Yamaguchi 52.54%
Average
Average 59.35%
Now, to determine the favorite of the match, we will take 59.35% of the home team's points and 40.65% of the away team's points. It turns out that the favorite of the match is JEF United with an advantage of 232 points against 79. If we convert it to a percentage ratio, it will be 74.58% to 25.42%.
Points earned with home win percentage
Now let's see who the bookmakers consider the favorite and compare their data with our calculations. The bookmakers estimate the probability of a draw in this match at 26.46% with a coefficient of 3.78. The coefficient for the home team's victory is 2.07, and for the away team's victory it is 3.96. If we exclude the draw, the probability of the home team's victory will be 65.66%, and the away team's victory - 34.34%. This differs from our calculations.
Comparison of calculated data with bookmakers
Bookmakers
Our calculation
As a result of the analysis conducted, an inaccuracy was found in the bookmaker's line. In our opinion, the probability of JEF United's victory is an order of magnitude higher than what the bookmakers think. The difference is 8.92%. The coefficient for the team's victory is 2.07, while in reality, it should be 1.82.
Comparison with bookmakers odds
Home Win
Draw
Away Win
Bookmakers
2.07
3.78
3.96
Our calculation
1.82
3.78
5.35
We suggest using our prediction. But we do not guarantee that the bet will definitely win. Our strategy is designed to generate profits over the long term.
Home Win
2.07
2024 August
QUANTITY 1356
ROI +8.42%
EARNINGS +$11416
2024 September
QUANTITY 702
ROI +9.86%
EARNINGS +$6924
20 September 2024
QUANTITY 27
ROI +170.41%
EARNINGS +$4601
Japan. J League. Division 2
Japan. J League. Division 1
China PR. Super League
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