Jablonec B vs Usti nad Orlici prediction

Jablonec B

Match start date: Nov 10, 2024

VS

Tournament: Czech Republic. 3rd Division. CFL

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Usti nad Orlici

Our app uses a special algorithm to predict the outcome of the match between Jablonec B and Usti nad Orlici. This algorithm is designed to detect any inaccuracies in the bookmakers' odds by analyzing a vast amount of input data.

Jablonec B

For Jablonec B, we analyze their last 8 matches, taking into account various factors such as the quality of their performance, the match results, the location of the match (whether it was played at home or away), and the strength of their opponents. To determine the strength of the opponents, we look at the results of their previous matches. For each game, we will give the team Jablonec B conditional points, which later will be used to determine the favorite.

03/11

Away

23 Teplice B

1:1

+31

23/10

Home

30 Hradec Kralove B

1:1

+26

20/10

Away

47 Sokol Brozany

2:2

+53

13/10

Home

51 Kladno

0:4

+1

06/10

Away

28 Benatky nad Jizerou

2:0

+85

28/09

Home

24 Pardubice B

1:3

+3

21/09

Away

22 Ceska Lipa

2:1

+40

07/09

Home

15 Kolin

1:1

+8

Usti nad Orlici

Similarly, for Usti nad Orlici, we analyze their last 8 matches using the same approach.

02/11

Home

40 Slovan Liberec B

1:3

+5

26/10

Away

20 Sokol Zivanice

2:1

+44

19/10

Home

19 Chlumec

2:2

+17

12/10

Away

23 Banik Most-Sous

0:5

+1

09/10

Away

15 Kolin

0:0

+19

05/10

Home

55 Usti nad Labem

1:3

+6

29/09

Away

40 Zapy

0:2

+6

21/09

Home

27 Mlada Boleslav B

0:2

+3

Identifying the favourite

After analyzing both teams' last 8 matches, we've assigned 247 points to the home team and 101 points to the away team. This suggests that one team has an advantage over the other. However, it's important to consider that the home team (Jablonec B) is playing on their own turf, which may slightly improve their chances of winning.

Accumulated points

Jablonec B 247
Usti nad Orlici 101

To determine what percentage of victories each team achieves at home and away, we've compiled statistics from several recent years to eliminate any chance-related factors. It turns out that 60% of victories for the team Jablonec B occurred in home matches. For the team Usti nad Orlici this indicator is 50.77%. On average, this equates to 55.39%, suggesting a slight advantage for Jablonec B all other things being equal.

Percentage of home wins by teams

Jablonec B

Jablonec B 60%

Usti nad Orlici

Usti nad Orlici 50.77%

Average

Average 55.39%

Now, to determine the favorite of the match, we will take 55.39% of the home team's points and 44.62% of the away team's points. It turns out that the favorite of the match is Jablonec B with an advantage of 137 points against 45. If we convert it to a percentage ratio, it will be 75.25% to 24.75%.

Points earned with home win percentage

Jablonec B 137
Usti nad Orlici 45

Bookmakers odds and probability

Now let's see who the bookmakers consider the favorite and compare their data with our calculations. The bookmakers estimate the probability of a draw in this match at 24.33% with a coefficient of 4.11. The coefficient for the home team's victory is 2.1, and for the away team's victory it is 3.57. If we exclude the draw, the probability of the home team's victory will be 63.01%, and the away team's victory - 36.99%. This differs from our calculations.

Comparison of calculated data with bookmakers

Bookmakers

Jablonec B 63.01%
Usti nad Orlici 36.99%

Our calculation

Jablonec B 75.25%
Usti nad Orlici 24.75%

Match prediction

As a result of the analysis conducted, an inaccuracy was found in the bookmaker's line. In our opinion, the probability of Jablonec B's victory is an order of magnitude higher than what the bookmakers think. The difference is 12.24%. The coefficient for the team's victory is 2.1, while in reality, it should be 1.76.

Comparison with bookmakers odds

Home Win

Draw

Away Win

Bookmakers

2.1

4.11

3.57

Our calculation

1.76

4.11

5.34

We suggest using our prediction. But we do not guarantee that the bet will definitely win. Our strategy is designed to generate profits over the long term.

Home Win

2.1

Our prediction statistics

2024 October

QUANTITY 2852

ROI +7.78%

EARNINGS +$22186

9 November 2024

QUANTITY 367

ROI +6.56%

EARNINGS +$2406

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