For Dundee United, we analyze their last 8 matches, taking into account various factors such as the quality of their performance, the match results, the location of the match (whether it was played at home or away), and the strength of their opponents. To determine the strength of the opponents, we look at the results of their previous matches. For each game, we will give the team Dundee United conditional points, which later will be used to determine the favorite.
26/10
Away
56 Aberdeen
0:1
+57
19/10
Home
15 Hibernian
3:2
+26
05/10
Away
18 St Mirren
1:0
+36
28/09
Away
21 Kilmarnock
3:3
+25
15/09
Home
44 Rangers
0:1
+31
01/09
Away
14 Hearts
1:0
+23
24/08
Home
23 St Johnstone
2:0
+57
10/08
Away
22 Ross County
1:1
+20
Similarly, for Motherwell, we analyze their last 8 matches using the same approach.
27/10
Home
62 Celtic
0:3
+5
19/10
Home
22 Dundee
0:1
+17
05/10
Away
15 Hibernian
2:1
+30
28/09
Home
18 St Mirren
2:1
+25
14/09
Away
56 Aberdeen
1:2
+49
31/08
Away
23 St Johnstone
2:1
+36
25/08
Home
14 Hearts
3:1
+33
10/08
Away
44 Rangers
1:2
+32
After analyzing both teams' last 8 matches, we've assigned 276 points to the home team and 227 points to the away team. This suggests that one team has an advantage over the other. However, it's important to consider that the home team (Dundee United) is playing on their own turf, which may slightly improve their chances of winning.
Accumulated points
To determine what percentage of victories each team achieves at home and away, we've compiled statistics from several recent years to eliminate any chance-related factors. It turns out that 53.13% of victories for the team Dundee United occurred in home matches. For the team Motherwell this indicator is 53.45%. On average, this equates to 53.29%, suggesting a slight advantage for Dundee United all other things being equal.
Percentage of home wins by teams
Dundee United
Dundee United 53.13%
Motherwell
Motherwell 53.45%
Average
Average 53.29%
Now, to determine the favorite of the match, we will take 53.29% of the home team's points and 46.71% of the away team's points. It turns out that the favorite of the match is Dundee United with an advantage of 147 points against 106. If we convert it to a percentage ratio, it will be 58.14% to 41.86%.
Points earned with home win percentage
Now let's see who the bookmakers consider the favorite and compare their data with our calculations. The bookmakers estimate the probability of a draw in this match at 26.39% with a coefficient of 3.79. The coefficient for the home team's victory is 2.25, and for the away team's victory it is 3.42. If we exclude the draw, the probability of the home team's victory will be 60.26%, and the away team's victory - 39.74%. This differs from our calculations.
Comparison of calculated data with bookmakers
Bookmakers
Our calculation
As a result of the analysis conducted, an inaccuracy was found in the bookmaker's line. In our opinion, the probability of Motherwell's victory is an order of magnitude higher than what the bookmakers think. The difference is 2.11%. The coefficient for the team's victory is 3.42, while in reality, it should be 3.25.
Comparison with bookmakers odds
Home Win
Draw
Away Win
Bookmakers
2.25
3.79
3.42
Our calculation
2.34
3.79
3.25
The mathematical analysis of the betting odds for this match did not reveal any significant inaccuracies. We cannot confidently recommend using our forecast for bets on this match, as the potential profit will be minimal.
Away Win
3.42
2024 October
QUANTITY 2788
ROI +8.49%
EARNINGS +$23671
2024 September
QUANTITY 1553
ROI +1.18%
EARNINGS +$1831
Italy. Serie A
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