Coban Imperial vs Zacapa prediction

Coban Imperial

Match start date: Nov 11, 2024

VS

Tournament: Guatemala. Liga Nacional

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Zacapa

Our app uses a special algorithm to predict the outcome of the match between Coban Imperial and Zacapa. This algorithm is designed to detect any inaccuracies in the bookmakers' odds by analyzing a vast amount of input data.

Coban Imperial

For Coban Imperial, we analyze their last 8 matches, taking into account various factors such as the quality of their performance, the match results, the location of the match (whether it was played at home or away), and the strength of their opponents. To determine the strength of the opponents, we look at the results of their previous matches. For each game, we will give the team Coban Imperial conditional points, which later will be used to determine the favorite.

03/11

Away

34 Deportivo Antigua

2:0

+158

24/10

Away

25 Deportivo Mixco

0:1

+32

20/10

Home

40 Xinabajul

0:0

+28

13/10

Home

27 Deportivo Achuapa

3:1

+52

29/09

Home

41 Xelaju

0:0

+25

21/09

Away

34 Malacateco

0:1

+35

07/09

Away

17 Marquense

1:0

+38

31/08

Home

18 Deportivo Guastatoya

3:0

+39

Zacapa

Similarly, for Zacapa, we analyze their last 8 matches using the same approach.

03/11

Home

25 Comunicaciones

0:0

+17

28/10

Away

40 Xinabajul

0:2

+9

19/10

Home

18 Deportivo Guastatoya

1:1

+8

06/10

Away

41 Xelaju

0:4

+3

29/09

Home

34 Malacateco

0:1

+11

22/09

Away

46 Municipal

0:5

+3

15/09

Home

17 Marquense

0:0

+5

09/09

Away

27 Deportivo Achuapa

2:2

+33

Identifying the favourite

After analyzing both teams' last 8 matches, we've assigned 408 points to the home team and 88 points to the away team. This suggests that one team has an advantage over the other. However, it's important to consider that the home team (Coban Imperial) is playing on their own turf, which may slightly improve their chances of winning.

Accumulated points

Coban Imperial 408
Zacapa 88

To determine what percentage of victories each team achieves at home and away, we've compiled statistics from several recent years to eliminate any chance-related factors. It turns out that 62.96% of victories for the team Coban Imperial occurred in home matches. For the team Zacapa this indicator is 76.27%. On average, this equates to 69.62%, suggesting a slight advantage for Coban Imperial all other things being equal.

Percentage of home wins by teams

Coban Imperial

Coban Imperial 62.96%

Zacapa

Zacapa 76.27%

Average

Average 69.62%

Now, to determine the favorite of the match, we will take 69.62% of the home team's points and 30.38% of the away team's points. It turns out that the favorite of the match is Coban Imperial with an advantage of 284 points against 27. If we convert it to a percentage ratio, it will be 91.35% to 8.65%.

Points earned with home win percentage

Coban Imperial 284
Zacapa 27

Bookmakers odds and probability

Now let's see who the bookmakers consider the favorite and compare their data with our calculations. The bookmakers estimate the probability of a draw in this match at 16.53% with a coefficient of 6.05. The coefficient for the home team's victory is 1.29, and for the away team's victory it is 16.65. If we exclude the draw, the probability of the home team's victory will be 92.81%, and the away team's victory - 7.2%. This differs from our calculations.

Comparison of calculated data with bookmakers

Bookmakers

Coban Imperial 92.81%
Zacapa 7.2%

Our calculation

Coban Imperial 91.35%
Zacapa 8.65%

Match prediction

As a result of the analysis conducted, an inaccuracy was found in the bookmaker's line. In our opinion, the probability of Zacapa's victory is an order of magnitude higher than what the bookmakers think. The difference is 1.46%. The coefficient for the team's victory is 16.65, while in reality, it should be 13.85.

Comparison with bookmakers odds

Home Win

Draw

Away Win

Bookmakers

1.29

6.05

16.65

Our calculation

1.31

6.05

13.85

The mathematical analysis of the betting odds for this match did not reveal any significant inaccuracies. We cannot confidently recommend using our forecast for bets on this match, as the potential profit will be minimal.

Away Win

16.65

Our prediction statistics

2024 October

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