For Coban Imperial, we analyze their last 8 matches, taking into account various factors such as the quality of their performance, the match results, the location of the match (whether it was played at home or away), and the strength of their opponents. To determine the strength of the opponents, we look at the results of their previous matches. For each game, we will give the team Coban Imperial conditional points, which later will be used to determine the favorite.
03/11
Away
34 Deportivo Antigua
2:0
+158
24/10
Away
25 Deportivo Mixco
0:1
+32
20/10
Home
40 Xinabajul
0:0
+28
13/10
Home
27 Deportivo Achuapa
3:1
+52
29/09
Home
41 Xelaju
0:0
+25
21/09
Away
34 Malacateco
0:1
+35
07/09
Away
17 Marquense
1:0
+38
31/08
Home
18 Deportivo Guastatoya
3:0
+39
Similarly, for Zacapa, we analyze their last 8 matches using the same approach.
03/11
Home
25 Comunicaciones
0:0
+17
28/10
Away
40 Xinabajul
0:2
+9
19/10
Home
18 Deportivo Guastatoya
1:1
+8
06/10
Away
41 Xelaju
0:4
+3
29/09
Home
34 Malacateco
0:1
+11
22/09
Away
46 Municipal
0:5
+3
15/09
Home
17 Marquense
0:0
+5
09/09
Away
27 Deportivo Achuapa
2:2
+33
After analyzing both teams' last 8 matches, we've assigned 408 points to the home team and 88 points to the away team. This suggests that one team has an advantage over the other. However, it's important to consider that the home team (Coban Imperial) is playing on their own turf, which may slightly improve their chances of winning.
Accumulated points
To determine what percentage of victories each team achieves at home and away, we've compiled statistics from several recent years to eliminate any chance-related factors. It turns out that 62.96% of victories for the team Coban Imperial occurred in home matches. For the team Zacapa this indicator is 76.27%. On average, this equates to 69.62%, suggesting a slight advantage for Coban Imperial all other things being equal.
Percentage of home wins by teams
Coban Imperial
Coban Imperial 62.96%
Zacapa
Zacapa 76.27%
Average
Average 69.62%
Now, to determine the favorite of the match, we will take 69.62% of the home team's points and 30.38% of the away team's points. It turns out that the favorite of the match is Coban Imperial with an advantage of 284 points against 27. If we convert it to a percentage ratio, it will be 91.35% to 8.65%.
Points earned with home win percentage
Now let's see who the bookmakers consider the favorite and compare their data with our calculations. The bookmakers estimate the probability of a draw in this match at 16.53% with a coefficient of 6.05. The coefficient for the home team's victory is 1.29, and for the away team's victory it is 16.65. If we exclude the draw, the probability of the home team's victory will be 92.81%, and the away team's victory - 7.2%. This differs from our calculations.
Comparison of calculated data with bookmakers
Bookmakers
Our calculation
As a result of the analysis conducted, an inaccuracy was found in the bookmaker's line. In our opinion, the probability of Zacapa's victory is an order of magnitude higher than what the bookmakers think. The difference is 1.46%. The coefficient for the team's victory is 16.65, while in reality, it should be 13.85.
Comparison with bookmakers odds
Home Win
Draw
Away Win
Bookmakers
1.29
6.05
16.65
Our calculation
1.31
6.05
13.85
The mathematical analysis of the betting odds for this match did not reveal any significant inaccuracies. We cannot confidently recommend using our forecast for bets on this match, as the potential profit will be minimal.
Away Win
16.65
2024 October
QUANTITY 2852
ROI +7.78%
EARNINGS +$22186
Cyprus. 1st Division
France. Ligue 2
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