For Bryne, we analyze their last 8 matches, taking into account various factors such as the quality of their performance, the match results, the location of the match (whether it was played at home or away), and the strength of their opponents. To determine the strength of the opponents, we look at the results of their previous matches. For each game, we will give the team Bryne conditional points, which later will be used to determine the favorite.
20/07
Away
37 Egersund
2:0
+143
23/06
Home
32 Lyn
5:3
+75
16/06
Away
41 Moss
0:1
+44
09/06
Home
19 Asane
1:0
+22
01/06
Away
36 Kongsvinger
1:3
+6
27/05
Home
29 Ranheim
3:2
+35
22/05
Home
15 Aalesund
2:0
+29
16/05
Away
15 Sandnes Ulf
1:2
+12
Similarly, for Sandnes Ulf, we analyze their last 8 matches using the same approach.
23/06
Away
44 Valerenga
0:8
+2
16/06
Home
22 Mjondalen
2:3
+16
01/06
Away
19 Asane
0:1
+19
27/05
Home
36 Kongsvinger
0:2
+5
23/05
Away
32 Lyn
0:5
+2
16/05
Home
38 Bryne
2:1
+49
11/05
Away
33 Sogndal
1:5
+1
04/05
Home
41 Moss
3:3
+30
After analyzing both teams' last 8 matches, we've assigned 365 points to the home team and 124 points to the away team. This suggests that one team has an advantage over the other. However, it's important to consider that the home team (Bryne) is playing on their own turf, which may slightly improve their chances of winning.
Accumulated points
To determine what percentage of victories each team achieves at home and away, we've compiled statistics from several recent years to eliminate any chance-related factors. It turns out that 68.66% of victories for the team Bryne occurred in home matches. For the team Sandnes Ulf this indicator is 54.69%. On average, this equates to 61.67%, suggesting a slight advantage for Bryne all other things being equal.
Percentage of home wins by teams
Bryne
Bryne 68.66%
Sandnes Ulf
Sandnes Ulf 54.69%
Average
Average 61.67%
Now, to determine the favorite of the match, we will take 61.67% of the home team's points and 38.33% of the away team's points. It turns out that the favorite of the match is Bryne with an advantage of 225 points against 48. If we convert it to a percentage ratio, it will be 82.54% to 17.46%.
Points earned with home win percentage
Now let's see who the bookmakers consider the favorite and compare their data with our calculations. The bookmakers estimate the probability of a draw in this match at 16.42% with a coefficient of 6.09. The coefficient for the home team's victory is 1.36, and for the away team's victory it is 10.05. If we exclude the draw, the probability of the home team's victory will be 88.1%, and the away team's victory - 11.9%. This differs from our calculations.
Comparison of calculated data with bookmakers
Bookmakers
Our calculation
As a result of the analysis conducted, an inaccuracy was found in the bookmaker's line. In our opinion, the probability of Sandnes Ulf's victory is an order of magnitude higher than what the bookmakers think. The difference is 5.36%. The coefficient for the team's victory is 10.05, while in reality, it should be 6.85.
Comparison with bookmakers odds
Home Win
Draw
Away Win
Bookmakers
1.36
6.09
10.05
Our calculation
1.45
6.09
6.85
We suggest using our prediction. But we do not guarantee that the bet will definitely win. Our strategy is designed to generate profits over the long term.
Away Win
10.05
2024 June
QUANTITY 1383
ROI +10.03%
EARNINGS +$13868
2024 July
QUANTITY 1211
ROI +7.75%
EARNINGS +$9384
15 July 2024 - 21 July 2024
QUANTITY 280
ROI +14.85%
EARNINGS +$4158
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