Barry Town vs Haverfordwest County prediction

Barry Town

Match start date: Jan 14, 2025

VS

Tournament: Wales. Premier League

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Haverfordwest County

Our app uses a special algorithm to predict the outcome of the match between Barry Town and Haverfordwest County. This algorithm is designed to detect any inaccuracies in the bookmakers' odds by analyzing a vast amount of input data.

Barry Town

For Barry Town, we analyze their last 8 matches, taking into account various factors such as the quality of their performance, the match results, the location of the match (whether it was played at home or away), and the strength of their opponents. To determine the strength of the opponents, we look at the results of their previous matches. For each game, we will give the team Barry Town conditional points, which later will be used to determine the favorite.

31/12

Away

23 Briton Ferry Llansawel

0:0

+31

26/12

Home

47 Penybont

1:2

+35

21/12

Away

31 Bala Town

1:3

+5

14/12

Away

33 Caernarfon Town

2:3

+29

10/12

Home

31 Cardiff Metropolitan

2:1

+42

09/11

Home

29 Connahs Quay

3:2

+38

02/11

Home

49 The New Saints

1:4

+3

26/10

Away

22 Flint Town United

2:1

+35

Haverfordwest County

Similarly, for Haverfordwest County, we analyze their last 8 matches using the same approach.

04/01

Home

23 Briton Ferry Llansawel

5:1

+119

01/01

Home

15 Aberystwyth Town

1:0

+26

26/12

Away

17 Newtown

2:0

+58

03/12

Away

47 Penybont

0:1

+41

23/11

Home

31 Bala Town

0:0

+26

10/11

Away

49 The New Saints

1:2

+39

02/11

Home

22 Flint Town United

4:1

+80

26/10

Home

33 Caernarfon Town

0:0

+24

Identifying the favourite

After analyzing both teams' last 8 matches, we've assigned 219 points to the home team and 413 points to the away team. This suggests that one team has an advantage over the other. However, it's important to consider that the home team (Barry Town) is playing on their own turf, which may slightly improve their chances of winning.

Accumulated points

Barry Town 219
Haverfordwest County 413

To determine what percentage of victories each team achieves at home and away, we've compiled statistics from several recent years to eliminate any chance-related factors. It turns out that 60% of victories for the team Barry Town occurred in home matches. For the team Haverfordwest County this indicator is 56.36%. On average, this equates to 58.18%, suggesting a slight advantage for Barry Town all other things being equal.

Percentage of home wins by teams

Barry Town

Barry Town 60%

Haverfordwest County

Haverfordwest County 56.36%

Average

Average 58.18%

Now, to determine the favorite of the match, we will take 58.18% of the home team's points and 41.82% of the away team's points. It turns out that the favorite of the match is Haverfordwest County with an advantage of 173 points against 127. If we convert it to a percentage ratio, it will be 57.57% to 42.43%.

Points earned with home win percentage

Barry Town 127
Haverfordwest County 173

Bookmakers odds and probability

Now let's see who the bookmakers consider the favorite and compare their data with our calculations. The bookmakers estimate the probability of a draw in this match at 27.62% with a coefficient of 3.62. The coefficient for the home team's victory is 3.81, and for the away team's victory it is 2.17. If we exclude the draw, the probability of the home team's victory will be 36.25%, and the away team's victory - 63.75%. This differs from our calculations.

Comparison of calculated data with bookmakers

Bookmakers

Barry Town 36.25%
Haverfordwest County 63.75%

Our calculation

Barry Town 42.43%
Haverfordwest County 57.57%

Match prediction

As a result of the analysis conducted, an inaccuracy was found in the bookmaker's line. In our opinion, the probability of Barry Town's victory is an order of magnitude higher than what the bookmakers think. The difference is 5.39%. The coefficient for the team's victory is 3.81, while in reality, it should be 3.26.

Comparison with bookmakers odds

Home Win

Draw

Away Win

Bookmakers

3.81

3.62

2.17

Our calculation

3.26

3.62

2.4

We suggest using our prediction. But we do not guarantee that the bet will definitely win. Our strategy is designed to generate profits over the long term.

Home Win

3.81

Our prediction statistics

2024 December

QUANTITY 2250

ROI +3.69%

EARNINGS +$8294

Wales. Premier League

QUANTITY 171

ROI +43.08%

EARNINGS +$7366

2025 January

QUANTITY 749

ROI +6.06%

EARNINGS +$4539

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