For Barry Town, we analyze their last 8 matches, taking into account various factors such as the quality of their performance, the match results, the location of the match (whether it was played at home or away), and the strength of their opponents. To determine the strength of the opponents, we look at the results of their previous matches. For each game, we will give the team Barry Town conditional points, which later will be used to determine the favorite.
31/12
Away
23 Briton Ferry Llansawel
0:0
+31
26/12
Home
47 Penybont
1:2
+35
21/12
Away
31 Bala Town
1:3
+5
14/12
Away
33 Caernarfon Town
2:3
+29
10/12
Home
31 Cardiff Metropolitan
2:1
+42
09/11
Home
29 Connahs Quay
3:2
+38
02/11
Home
49 The New Saints
1:4
+3
26/10
Away
22 Flint Town United
2:1
+35
Similarly, for Haverfordwest County, we analyze their last 8 matches using the same approach.
04/01
Home
23 Briton Ferry Llansawel
5:1
+119
01/01
Home
15 Aberystwyth Town
1:0
+26
26/12
Away
17 Newtown
2:0
+58
03/12
Away
47 Penybont
0:1
+41
23/11
Home
31 Bala Town
0:0
+26
10/11
Away
49 The New Saints
1:2
+39
02/11
Home
22 Flint Town United
4:1
+80
26/10
Home
33 Caernarfon Town
0:0
+24
After analyzing both teams' last 8 matches, we've assigned 219 points to the home team and 413 points to the away team. This suggests that one team has an advantage over the other. However, it's important to consider that the home team (Barry Town) is playing on their own turf, which may slightly improve their chances of winning.
Accumulated points
To determine what percentage of victories each team achieves at home and away, we've compiled statistics from several recent years to eliminate any chance-related factors. It turns out that 60% of victories for the team Barry Town occurred in home matches. For the team Haverfordwest County this indicator is 56.36%. On average, this equates to 58.18%, suggesting a slight advantage for Barry Town all other things being equal.
Percentage of home wins by teams
Barry Town
Barry Town 60%
Haverfordwest County
Haverfordwest County 56.36%
Average
Average 58.18%
Now, to determine the favorite of the match, we will take 58.18% of the home team's points and 41.82% of the away team's points. It turns out that the favorite of the match is Haverfordwest County with an advantage of 173 points against 127. If we convert it to a percentage ratio, it will be 57.57% to 42.43%.
Points earned with home win percentage
Now let's see who the bookmakers consider the favorite and compare their data with our calculations. The bookmakers estimate the probability of a draw in this match at 27.62% with a coefficient of 3.62. The coefficient for the home team's victory is 3.81, and for the away team's victory it is 2.17. If we exclude the draw, the probability of the home team's victory will be 36.25%, and the away team's victory - 63.75%. This differs from our calculations.
Comparison of calculated data with bookmakers
Bookmakers
Our calculation
As a result of the analysis conducted, an inaccuracy was found in the bookmaker's line. In our opinion, the probability of Barry Town's victory is an order of magnitude higher than what the bookmakers think. The difference is 5.39%. The coefficient for the team's victory is 3.81, while in reality, it should be 3.26.
Comparison with bookmakers odds
Home Win
Draw
Away Win
Bookmakers
3.81
3.62
2.17
Our calculation
3.26
3.62
2.4
We suggest using our prediction. But we do not guarantee that the bet will definitely win. Our strategy is designed to generate profits over the long term.
Home Win
3.81
2024 December
QUANTITY 2250
ROI +3.69%
EARNINGS +$8294
Wales. Premier League
QUANTITY 171
ROI +43.08%
EARNINGS +$7366
2025 January
QUANTITY 749
ROI +6.06%
EARNINGS +$4539
Germany. Bundesliga
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