Atlantico vs Atletico San Cristobal prediction

Atlantico

Match start date: May 30, 2024

VS

Tournament: Dominican Republic. Primera Division

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Atletico San Cristobal

Our app uses a special algorithm to predict the outcome of the match between Atlantico and Atletico San Cristobal. This algorithm is designed to detect any inaccuracies in the bookmakers' odds by analyzing a vast amount of input data.

Atlantico

For Atlantico, we analyze their last 8 matches, taking into account various factors such as the quality of their performance, the match results, the location of the match (whether it was played at home or away), and the strength of their opponents. To determine the strength of the opponents, we look at the results of their previous matches. For each game, we will give the team Atlantico conditional points, which later will be used to determine the favorite.

26/05

Away

29 Atletico Vega Real

1:0

+66

21/05

Home

44 Cibao

0:2

+6

15/05

Away

33 Moca

0:1

+35

11/05

Home

29 Atletico Pantoja

2:0

+78

05/05

Away

39 Universidad O&M

0:0

+40

01/05

Home

31 Delfines del Este

1:1

+26

28/04

Away

2 Atletico San Cristobal

5:0

+13

21/04

Home

29 Atletico Vega Real

1:2

+15

Atletico San Cristobal

Similarly, for Atletico San Cristobal, we analyze their last 8 matches using the same approach.

25/05

Away

44 Cibao

0:5

+3

16/05

Away

29 Atletico Pantoja

0:6

+2

13/05

Home

39 Universidad O&M

0:4

+2

04/05

Away

31 Delfines del Este

0:3

+3

01/05

Home

29 Atletico Vega Real

1:2

+17

28/04

Home

29 Atlantico

0:5

+1

21/04

Home

44 Cibao

0:4

+1

18/04

Away

33 Moca

1:5

+2

Identifying the favourite

After analyzing both teams' last 8 matches, we've assigned 278 points to the home team and 30 points to the away team. This suggests that one team has an advantage over the other. However, it's important to consider that the home team (Atlantico) is playing on their own turf, which may slightly improve their chances of winning.

Accumulated points

Atlantico 278
Atletico San Cristobal 30

To determine what percentage of victories each team achieves at home and away, we've compiled statistics from several recent years to eliminate any chance-related factors. It turns out that 55.36% of victories for the team Atlantico occurred in home matches. For the team Atletico San Cristobal this indicator is 59.09%. On average, this equates to 57.22%, suggesting a slight advantage for Atlantico all other things being equal.

Percentage of home wins by teams

Atlantico

Atlantico 55.36%

Atletico San Cristobal

Atletico San Cristobal 59.09%

Average

Average 57.22%

Now, to determine the favorite of the match, we will take 57.22% of the home team's points and 42.78% of the away team's points. It turns out that the favorite of the match is Atlantico with an advantage of 159 points against 13. If we convert it to a percentage ratio, it will be 92.51% to 7.49%.

Points earned with home win percentage

Atlantico 159
Atletico San Cristobal 13

Bookmakers odds and probability

Now let's see who the bookmakers consider the favorite and compare their data with our calculations. The bookmakers estimate the probability of a draw in this match at 7.09% with a coefficient of 14.11. The coefficient for the home team's victory is 1.11, and for the away team's victory it is 33.2. If we exclude the draw, the probability of the home team's victory will be 96.76%, and the away team's victory - 3.24%. This differs from our calculations.

Comparison of calculated data with bookmakers

Bookmakers

Atlantico 96.76%
Atletico San Cristobal 3.24%

Our calculation

Atlantico 92.51%
Atletico San Cristobal 7.49%

Match prediction

As a result of the analysis conducted, an inaccuracy was found in the bookmaker's line. In our opinion, the probability of Atletico San Cristobal's victory is an order of magnitude higher than what the bookmakers think. The difference is 4.03%. The coefficient for the team's victory is 33.2, while in reality, it should be 14.36.

Comparison with bookmakers odds

Home Win

Draw

Away Win

Bookmakers

1.11

14.11

33.2

Our calculation

1.16

14.11

14.36

The mathematical analysis of the betting odds for this match did not reveal any significant inaccuracies. We cannot confidently recommend using our forecast for bets on this match, as the potential profit will be minimal.

Away Win

33.2

Our prediction statistics

2024 April

QUANTITY 2867

ROI +7.39%

EARNINGS +$21176

20 May 2024 - 26 May 2024

QUANTITY 564

ROI +4.61%

EARNINGS +$2602

Dominican Republic. Primera Division

QUANTITY 20

ROI +96.75%

EARNINGS +$1935

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