For Adelaide Olympic Reserves, we analyze their last 8 matches, taking into account various factors such as the quality of their performance, the match results, the location of the match (whether it was played at home or away), and the strength of their opponents. To determine the strength of the opponents, we look at the results of their previous matches. For each game, we will give the team Adelaide Olympic Reserves conditional points, which later will be used to determine the favorite.
20/07
Away
23 Metrostars Reserves
2:0
+80
13/07
Home
45 Croydon Kings Reserves
0:3
+4
29/06
Away
46 Adelaide United Reserves
1:5
+3
22/06
Home
33 Modbury Jets Reserves
3:2
+50
15/06
Away
48 Campbelltown City Reserves
0:1
+40
08/06
Home
23 Adelaide Raiders Reserves
2:0
+58
01/06
Away
19 FK Beograd Reserves
4:4
+17
25/05
Home
30 Adelaide Comets Reserves
4:2
+62
Similarly, for Para Hills Knights Reserves, we analyze their last 8 matches using the same approach.
23/07
Home
23 Adelaide Raiders Reserves
5:2
+117
13/07
Away
23 Metrostars Reserves
2:2
+26
02/07
Home
19 FK Beograd Reserves
1:2
+15
22/06
Away
45 Croydon Kings Reserves
4:4
+39
15/06
Home
30 Adelaide Comets Reserves
5:3
+73
07/06
Away
46 Adelaide United Reserves
1:6
+2
01/06
Away
49 Adelaide City Reserves
3:1
+122
25/05
Home
33 Modbury Jets Reserves
0:2
+3
After analyzing both teams' last 8 matches, we've assigned 314 points to the home team and 398 points to the away team. This suggests that one team has an advantage over the other. However, it's important to consider that the home team (Adelaide Olympic Reserves) is playing on their own turf, which may slightly improve their chances of winning.
Accumulated points
To determine what percentage of victories each team achieves at home and away, we've compiled statistics from several recent years to eliminate any chance-related factors. It turns out that 53.85% of victories for the team Adelaide Olympic Reserves occurred in home matches. For the team Para Hills Knights Reserves this indicator is 52.94%. On average, this equates to 53.39%, suggesting a slight advantage for Adelaide Olympic Reserves all other things being equal.
Percentage of home wins by teams
Adelaide Olympic Reserves
Adelaide Olympic Reserves 53.85%
Para Hills Knights Reserves
Para Hills Knights Reserves 52.94%
Average
Average 53.39%
Now, to determine the favorite of the match, we will take 53.39% of the home team's points and 46.61% of the away team's points. It turns out that the favorite of the match is Para Hills Knights Reserves with an advantage of 186 points against 168. If we convert it to a percentage ratio, it will be 52.52% to 47.48%.
Points earned with home win percentage
Now let's see who the bookmakers consider the favorite and compare their data with our calculations. The bookmakers estimate the probability of a draw in this match at 23.42% with a coefficient of 4.27. The coefficient for the home team's victory is 2.54, and for the away team's victory it is 2.69. If we exclude the draw, the probability of the home team's victory will be 51.48%, and the away team's victory - 48.52%. This differs from our calculations.
Comparison of calculated data with bookmakers
Bookmakers
Our calculation
As a result of the analysis conducted, an inaccuracy was found in the bookmaker's line. In our opinion, the probability of Para Hills Knights Reserves's victory is an order of magnitude higher than what the bookmakers think. The difference is 4%. The coefficient for the team's victory is 2.69, while in reality, it should be 2.49.
Comparison with bookmakers odds
Home Win
Draw
Away Win
Bookmakers
2.54
4.27
2.69
Our calculation
2.75
4.27
2.49
The mathematical analysis of the betting odds for this match did not reveal any significant inaccuracies. We cannot confidently recommend using our forecast for bets on this match, as the potential profit will be minimal.
Away Win
2.69
2024 June
QUANTITY 1383
ROI +10.03%
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2024 July
QUANTITY 1211
ROI +7.75%
EARNINGS +$9384
15 July 2024 - 21 July 2024
QUANTITY 280
ROI +14.85%
EARNINGS +$4158
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