For Aalesund, we analyze their last 8 matches, taking into account various factors such as the quality of their performance, the match results, the location of the match (whether it was played at home or away), and the strength of their opponents. To determine the strength of the opponents, we look at the results of their previous matches. For each game, we will give the team Aalesund conditional points, which later will be used to determine the favorite.
23/06
Home
29 Ranheim
1:2
+22
16/06
Away
29 Levanger
0:4
+2
09/06
Home
36 Kongsvinger
4:4
+34
01/06
Away
41 Moss
0:1
+38
27/05
Home
19 Asane
4:1
+66
22/05
Away
38 Bryne
0:2
+6
16/05
Home
33 Sogndal
0:2
+4
11/05
Home
44 Valerenga
0:2
+5
Similarly, for Egersund, we analyze their last 8 matches using the same approach.
20/07
Home
38 Bryne
0:2
+5
23/06
Away
22 Mjondalen
3:0
+115
16/06
Home
44 Valerenga
1:1
+49
09/06
Away
33 Sogndal
2:2
+35
05/06
Home
19 Asane
1:0
+27
01/06
Home
27 Raufoss
1:2
+20
27/05
Away
35 Stabaek
5:4
+57
22/05
Home
29 Levanger
2:2
+24
After analyzing both teams' last 8 matches, we've assigned 177 points to the home team and 332 points to the away team. This suggests that one team has an advantage over the other. However, it's important to consider that the home team (Aalesund) is playing on their own turf, which may slightly improve their chances of winning.
Accumulated points
To determine what percentage of victories each team achieves at home and away, we've compiled statistics from several recent years to eliminate any chance-related factors. It turns out that 58.73% of victories for the team Aalesund occurred in home matches. For the team Egersund this indicator is 46.15%. On average, this equates to 52.44%, suggesting a slight advantage for Aalesund all other things being equal.
Percentage of home wins by teams
Aalesund
Aalesund 58.73%
Egersund
Egersund 46.15%
Average
Average 52.44%
Now, to determine the favorite of the match, we will take 52.44% of the home team's points and 47.56% of the away team's points. It turns out that the favorite of the match is Egersund with an advantage of 158 points against 93. If we convert it to a percentage ratio, it will be 63.02% to 36.98%.
Points earned with home win percentage
Now let's see who the bookmakers consider the favorite and compare their data with our calculations. The bookmakers estimate the probability of a draw in this match at 22.27% with a coefficient of 4.49. The coefficient for the home team's victory is 1.88, and for the away team's victory it is 4.08. If we exclude the draw, the probability of the home team's victory will be 68.46%, and the away team's victory - 31.54%. This differs from our calculations.
Comparison of calculated data with bookmakers
Bookmakers
Our calculation
As a result of the analysis conducted, an inaccuracy was found in the bookmaker's line. In our opinion, the probability of Egersund's victory is an order of magnitude higher than what the bookmakers think. The difference is 31.47%. The coefficient for the team's victory is 4.08, while in reality, it should be 2.04.
Comparison with bookmakers odds
Home Win
Draw
Away Win
Bookmakers
1.88
4.49
4.08
Our calculation
3.48
4.49
2.04
Our mathematical algorithm has detected significant inaccuracies in the bookmakers' odds for this match. Such a large difference can only mean that we have not taken into account some important factor that allows the bookmakers to set such odds. We cannot confidently recommend using our prediction for betting on this match, as the potential profit will be minimal.
Away Win
4.08
2024 June
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2024 July
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ROI +7.75%
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15 July 2024 - 21 July 2024
QUANTITY 280
ROI +14.85%
EARNINGS +$4158
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