Venezia vs Udinese prediction

Venezia

Match start date: Oct 30, 2024

VS

Tournament: Italy. Serie A

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Udinese

Our app uses a special algorithm to predict the outcome of the match between Venezia and Udinese. This algorithm is designed to detect any inaccuracies in the bookmakers' odds by analyzing a vast amount of input data.

Venezia

For Venezia, we analyze their last 8 matches, taking into account various factors such as the quality of their performance, the match results, the location of the match (whether it was played at home or away), and the strength of their opponents. To determine the strength of the opponents, we look at the results of their previous matches. For each game, we will give the team Venezia conditional points, which later will be used to determine the favorite.

27/10

Away

21 Monza

2:2

+28

20/10

Home

40 Atalanta

0:2

+4

04/10

Away

20 Verona

1:2

+23

29/09

Away

25 Roma

1:2

+26

21/09

Home

14 Genoa

2:0

+26

14/09

Away

38 Milan

0:4

+2

30/08

Home

32 Torino

0:1

+17

25/08

Away

39 Fiorentina

0:0

+42

Udinese

Similarly, for Udinese, we analyze their last 8 matches using the same approach.

25/10

Home

19 Cagliari

2:0

+51

19/10

Away

38 Milan

0:1

+39

05/10

Home

17 Lecce

1:0

+27

28/09

Home

42 Inter

2:3

+31

22/09

Away

25 Roma

0:3

+2

16/09

Away

19 Parma

3:2

+32

01/09

Home

21 Como

1:0

+26

24/08

Home

38 Lazio

2:1

+45

Identifying the favourite

After analyzing both teams' last 8 matches, we've assigned 168 points to the home team and 253 points to the away team. This suggests that one team has an advantage over the other. However, it's important to consider that the home team (Venezia) is playing on their own turf, which may slightly improve their chances of winning.

Accumulated points

Venezia 168
Udinese 253

To determine what percentage of victories each team achieves at home and away, we've compiled statistics from several recent years to eliminate any chance-related factors. It turns out that 67.19% of victories for the team Venezia occurred in home matches. For the team Udinese this indicator is 55.56%. On average, this equates to 61.37%, suggesting a slight advantage for Venezia all other things being equal.

Percentage of home wins by teams

Venezia

Venezia 67.19%

Udinese

Udinese 55.56%

Average

Average 61.37%

Now, to determine the favorite of the match, we will take 61.37% of the home team's points and 38.63% of the away team's points. It turns out that the favorite of the match is Venezia with an advantage of 103 points against 98. If we convert it to a percentage ratio, it will be 51.45% to 48.55%.

Points earned with home win percentage

Venezia 103
Udinese 98

Bookmakers odds and probability

Now let's see who the bookmakers consider the favorite and compare their data with our calculations. The bookmakers estimate the probability of a draw in this match at 30.86% with a coefficient of 3.24. The coefficient for the home team's victory is 2.96, and for the away team's victory it is 2.83. If we exclude the draw, the probability of the home team's victory will be 48.82%, and the away team's victory - 51.18%. This differs from our calculations.

Comparison of calculated data with bookmakers

Bookmakers

Venezia 48.82%
Udinese 51.18%

Our calculation

Venezia 51.45%
Udinese 48.55%

Match prediction

As a result of the analysis conducted, an inaccuracy was found in the bookmaker's line. In our opinion, the probability of Venezia's victory is an order of magnitude higher than what the bookmakers think. The difference is 2.63%. The coefficient for the team's victory is 2.96, while in reality, it should be 2.81.

Comparison with bookmakers odds

Home Win

Draw

Away Win

Bookmakers

2.96

3.24

2.83

Our calculation

2.81

3.24

2.98

The mathematical analysis of the betting odds for this match did not reveal any significant inaccuracies. We cannot confidently recommend using our forecast for bets on this match, as the potential profit will be minimal.

Home Win

2.96

Our prediction statistics

2024 October

QUANTITY 2788

ROI +8.49%

EARNINGS +$23671

2024 September

QUANTITY 1553

ROI +1.18%

EARNINGS +$1831

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