For Urawa Red Diamonds, we analyze their last 8 matches, taking into account various factors such as the quality of their performance, the match results, the location of the match (whether it was played at home or away), and the strength of their opponents. To determine the strength of the opponents, we look at the results of their previous matches. For each game, we will give the team Urawa Red Diamonds conditional points, which later will be used to determine the favorite.
14/09
Away
35 Gamba Osaka
1:0
+79
31/08
Away
43 Machida Zelvia
2:2
+48
17/08
Away
39 Kashima Antlers
0:0
+54
11/08
Away
18 Sagan Tosu
1:1
+21
20/07
Home
20 Consadole Sapporo
3:4
+12
14/07
Away
33 Kyoto Sanga
0:0
+33
06/07
Home
26 Shonan Bellmare
2:3
+15
30/06
Home
23 Jubilo Iwata
3:0
+75
Similarly, for FC Tokyo, we analyze their last 8 matches using the same approach.
14/09
Home
26 Nagoya Grampus
4:1
+111
31/08
Away
41 Sanfrecce Hiroshima
2:3
+42
24/08
Away
33 Kyoto Sanga
0:3
+3
17/08
Home
35 Tokyo Verdy
0:0
+33
11/08
Home
32 Kawasaki Frontale
0:3
+2
07/08
Away
35 Gamba Osaka
0:0
+37
20/07
Away
39 Kashima Antlers
1:2
+34
13/07
Home
29 Albirex Niigata
2:0
+57
After analyzing both teams' last 8 matches, we've assigned 337 points to the home team and 321 points to the away team. This suggests that one team has an advantage over the other. However, it's important to consider that the home team (Urawa Red Diamonds) is playing on their own turf, which may slightly improve their chances of winning.
Accumulated points
To determine what percentage of victories each team achieves at home and away, we've compiled statistics from several recent years to eliminate any chance-related factors. It turns out that 60% of victories for the team Urawa Red Diamonds occurred in home matches. For the team FC Tokyo this indicator is 62.3%. On average, this equates to 61.15%, suggesting a slight advantage for Urawa Red Diamonds all other things being equal.
Percentage of home wins by teams
Urawa Red Diamonds
Urawa Red Diamonds 60%
FC Tokyo
FC Tokyo 62.3%
Average
Average 61.15%
Now, to determine the favorite of the match, we will take 61.15% of the home team's points and 38.85% of the away team's points. It turns out that the favorite of the match is Urawa Red Diamonds with an advantage of 206 points against 125. If we convert it to a percentage ratio, it will be 62.34% to 37.66%.
Points earned with home win percentage
Now let's see who the bookmakers consider the favorite and compare their data with our calculations. The bookmakers estimate the probability of a draw in this match at 26.32% with a coefficient of 3.8. The coefficient for the home team's victory is 2.01, and for the away team's victory it is 4.17. If we exclude the draw, the probability of the home team's victory will be 67.42%, and the away team's victory - 32.58%. This differs from our calculations.
Comparison of calculated data with bookmakers
Bookmakers
Our calculation
As a result of the analysis conducted, an inaccuracy was found in the bookmaker's line. In our opinion, the probability of FC Tokyo's victory is an order of magnitude higher than what the bookmakers think. The difference is 4.91%. The coefficient for the team's victory is 4.17, while in reality, it should be 3.6.
Comparison with bookmakers odds
Home Win
Draw
Away Win
Bookmakers
2.01
3.8
4.17
Our calculation
2.18
3.8
3.6
The mathematical analysis of the betting odds for this match did not reveal any significant inaccuracies. We cannot confidently recommend using our forecast for bets on this match, as the potential profit will be minimal.
Away Win
4.17
2024 August
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Japan. J League. Division 1
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2024 September
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