St Mirren vs St Johnstone prediction

St Mirren

Match start date: Oct 30, 2024

VS

Tournament: Scotland. Premiership

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St Johnstone

Our app uses a special algorithm to predict the outcome of the match between St Mirren and St Johnstone. This algorithm is designed to detect any inaccuracies in the bookmakers' odds by analyzing a vast amount of input data.

St Mirren

For St Mirren, we analyze their last 8 matches, taking into account various factors such as the quality of their performance, the match results, the location of the match (whether it was played at home or away), and the strength of their opponents. To determine the strength of the opponents, we look at the results of their previous matches. For each game, we will give the team St Mirren conditional points, which later will be used to determine the favorite.

27/10

Away

44 Rangers

1:2

+49

19/10

Away

14 Hearts

0:4

+1

05/10

Home

35 Dundee United

0:1

+25

28/09

Away

30 Motherwell

1:2

+28

21/09

Home

14 Hearts

2:1

+19

14/09

Home

21 Kilmarnock

2:2

+14

31/08

Away

22 Dundee

2:2

+22

25/08

Home

62 Celtic

0:3

+3

St Johnstone

Similarly, for St Johnstone, we analyze their last 8 matches using the same approach.

26/10

Away

22 Dundee

2:1

+43

19/10

Home

22 Ross County

3:0

+102

06/10

Away

44 Rangers

0:2

+7

28/09

Home

62 Celtic

0:6

+3

21/09

Away

22 Ross County

3:3

+23

14/09

Away

15 Hibernian

0:2

+2

31/08

Home

30 Motherwell

1:2

+20

24/08

Away

35 Dundee United

0:2

+4

Identifying the favourite

After analyzing both teams' last 8 matches, we've assigned 162 points to the home team and 204 points to the away team. This suggests that one team has an advantage over the other. However, it's important to consider that the home team (St Mirren) is playing on their own turf, which may slightly improve their chances of winning.

Accumulated points

St Mirren 162
St Johnstone 204

To determine what percentage of victories each team achieves at home and away, we've compiled statistics from several recent years to eliminate any chance-related factors. It turns out that 62.9% of victories for the team St Mirren occurred in home matches. For the team St Johnstone this indicator is 49.21%. On average, this equates to 56.06%, suggesting a slight advantage for St Mirren all other things being equal.

Percentage of home wins by teams

St Mirren

St Mirren 62.9%

St Johnstone

St Johnstone 49.21%

Average

Average 56.06%

Now, to determine the favorite of the match, we will take 56.06% of the home team's points and 43.95% of the away team's points. It turns out that the favorite of the match is St Mirren with an advantage of 91 points against 89. If we convert it to a percentage ratio, it will be 50.36% to 49.64%.

Points earned with home win percentage

St Mirren 91
St Johnstone 89

Bookmakers odds and probability

Now let's see who the bookmakers consider the favorite and compare their data with our calculations. The bookmakers estimate the probability of a draw in this match at 25.77% with a coefficient of 3.88. The coefficient for the home team's victory is 1.93, and for the away team's victory it is 4.48. If we exclude the draw, the probability of the home team's victory will be 69.9%, and the away team's victory - 30.1%. This differs from our calculations.

Comparison of calculated data with bookmakers

Bookmakers

St Mirren 69.9%
St Johnstone 30.1%

Our calculation

St Mirren 50.36%
St Johnstone 49.64%

Match prediction

As a result of the analysis conducted, an inaccuracy was found in the bookmaker's line. In our opinion, the probability of St Johnstone's victory is an order of magnitude higher than what the bookmakers think. The difference is 19.54%. The coefficient for the team's victory is 4.48, while in reality, it should be 2.71.

Comparison with bookmakers odds

Home Win

Draw

Away Win

Bookmakers

1.93

3.88

4.48

Our calculation

2.68

3.88

2.71

Our mathematical algorithm has detected significant inaccuracies in the bookmakers' odds for this match. Such a large difference can only mean that we have not taken into account some important factor that allows the bookmakers to set such odds. We cannot confidently recommend using our prediction for betting on this match, as the potential profit will be minimal.

Away Win

4.48

Our prediction statistics

2024 October

QUANTITY 2788

ROI +8.49%

EARNINGS +$23671

2024 September

QUANTITY 1553

ROI +1.18%

EARNINGS +$1831

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