For Ross County, we analyze their last 8 matches, taking into account various factors such as the quality of their performance, the match results, the location of the match (whether it was played at home or away), and the strength of their opponents. To determine the strength of the opponents, we look at the results of their previous matches. For each game, we will give the team Ross County conditional points, which later will be used to determine the favorite.
26/10
Home
21 Kilmarnock
2:1
+29
19/10
Away
23 St Johnstone
0:3
+2
06/10
Home
62 Celtic
1:2
+42
28/09
Away
14 Hearts
1:1
+17
21/09
Home
23 St Johnstone
3:3
+20
14/09
Home
22 Dundee
2:0
+48
31/08
Home
56 Aberdeen
0:1
+31
24/08
Away
44 Rangers
0:6
+2
Similarly, for Hibernian, we analyze their last 8 matches using the same approach.
27/10
Home
14 Hearts
1:1
+15
19/10
Away
35 Dundee United
2:3
+32
05/10
Home
30 Motherwell
1:2
+22
29/09
Away
44 Rangers
0:1
+40
14/09
Home
23 St Johnstone
2:0
+63
01/09
Away
21 Kilmarnock
1:1
+23
24/08
Home
22 Dundee
2:2
+17
11/08
Home
62 Celtic
0:2
+7
After analyzing both teams' last 8 matches, we've assigned 191 points to the home team and 219 points to the away team. This suggests that one team has an advantage over the other. However, it's important to consider that the home team (Ross County) is playing on their own turf, which may slightly improve their chances of winning.
Accumulated points
To determine what percentage of victories each team achieves at home and away, we've compiled statistics from several recent years to eliminate any chance-related factors. It turns out that 61.29% of victories for the team Ross County occurred in home matches. For the team Hibernian this indicator is 54.24%. On average, this equates to 57.76%, suggesting a slight advantage for Ross County all other things being equal.
Percentage of home wins by teams
Ross County
Ross County 61.29%
Hibernian
Hibernian 54.24%
Average
Average 57.76%
Now, to determine the favorite of the match, we will take 57.76% of the home team's points and 42.24% of the away team's points. It turns out that the favorite of the match is Ross County with an advantage of 111 points against 92. If we convert it to a percentage ratio, it will be 54.48% to 45.52%.
Points earned with home win percentage
Now let's see who the bookmakers consider the favorite and compare their data with our calculations. The bookmakers estimate the probability of a draw in this match at 27.4% with a coefficient of 3.65. The coefficient for the home team's victory is 3.63, and for the away team's victory it is 2.22. If we exclude the draw, the probability of the home team's victory will be 37.91%, and the away team's victory - 62.09%. This differs from our calculations.
Comparison of calculated data with bookmakers
Bookmakers
Our calculation
As a result of the analysis conducted, an inaccuracy was found in the bookmaker's line. In our opinion, the probability of Ross County's victory is an order of magnitude higher than what the bookmakers think. The difference is 16.57%. The coefficient for the team's victory is 3.63, while in reality, it should be 2.53.
Comparison with bookmakers odds
Home Win
Draw
Away Win
Bookmakers
3.63
3.65
2.22
Our calculation
2.53
3.65
3.03
Our mathematical algorithm has detected significant inaccuracies in the bookmakers' odds for this match. Such a large difference can only mean that we have not taken into account some important factor that allows the bookmakers to set such odds. We cannot confidently recommend using our prediction for betting on this match, as the potential profit will be minimal.
Home Win
3.63
2024 October
QUANTITY 2788
ROI +8.49%
EARNINGS +$23671
2024 September
QUANTITY 1553
ROI +1.18%
EARNINGS +$1831
Italy. Serie A
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