Manchester 62 vs St Joseph's prediction

Manchester 62

For Manchester 62, we analyze their last 8 matches, taking into account various factors such as the quality of their performance, the match results, the location of the match (whether it was played at home or away), and the strength of their opponents. To determine the strength of the opponents, we look at the results of their previous matches. For each game, we will give the team Manchester 62 conditional points, which later will be used to determine the favorite.

St Joseph's

Similarly, for St Joseph's, we analyze their last 8 matches using the same approach.

Identifying the favourite

After analyzing both teams' last 8 matches, we've assigned 420 points to the home team and 575 points to the away team. This suggests that one team has an advantage over the other. However, it's important to consider that the home team (Manchester 62) is playing on their own turf, which may slightly improve their chances of winning.

To determine what percentage of victories each team achieves at home and away, we've compiled statistics from several recent years to eliminate any chance-related factors. It turns out that 48.53% of victories for the team Manchester 62 occurred in home matches. For the team St Joseph's this indicator is 40.3%. On average, this equates to 44.41%, suggesting a slight advantage for Manchester 62 all other things being equal.

Now, to determine the favorite of the match, we will take 44.41% of the home team's points and 55.59% of the away team's points. It turns out that the favorite of the match is St Joseph's with an advantage of 320 points against 187. If we convert it to a percentage ratio, it will be 63.14% to 36.86%.

Bookmakers odds and probability

Now let's see who the bookmakers consider the favorite and compare their data with our calculations. The bookmakers estimate the probability of a draw in this match at 14.08% with a coefficient of 7.1. The coefficient for the home team's victory is 11.92, and for the away team's victory it is 1.29. If we exclude the draw, the probability of the home team's victory will be 9.76%, and the away team's victory - 90.24%. This differs from our calculations.

Match prediction

As a result of the analysis conducted, an inaccuracy was found in the bookmaker's line. In our opinion, the probability of Manchester 62's victory is an order of magnitude higher than what the bookmakers think. The difference is 26.75%. The coefficient for the team's victory is 11.92, while in reality, it should be 3.16.

Our mathematical algorithm has detected significant inaccuracies in the bookmakers' odds for this match. Such a large difference can only mean that we have not taken into account some important factor that allows the bookmakers to set such odds. We cannot confidently recommend using our prediction for betting on this match, as the potential profit will be minimal.