Mafra vs Penafiel prediction

Mafra

For Mafra, we analyze their last 8 matches, taking into account various factors such as the quality of their performance, the match results, the location of the match (whether it was played at home or away), and the strength of their opponents. To determine the strength of the opponents, we look at the results of their previous matches. For each game, we will give the team Mafra conditional points, which later will be used to determine the favorite.

Penafiel

Similarly, for Penafiel, we analyze their last 8 matches using the same approach.

Identifying the favourite

After analyzing both teams' last 8 matches, we've assigned 140 points to the home team and 290 points to the away team. This suggests that one team has an advantage over the other. However, it's important to consider that the home team (Mafra) is playing on their own turf, which may slightly improve their chances of winning.

To determine what percentage of victories each team achieves at home and away, we've compiled statistics from several recent years to eliminate any chance-related factors. It turns out that 54.55% of victories for the team Mafra occurred in home matches. For the team Penafiel this indicator is 60.66%. On average, this equates to 57.6%, suggesting a slight advantage for Mafra all other things being equal.

Now, to determine the favorite of the match, we will take 57.6% of the home team's points and 42.4% of the away team's points. It turns out that the favorite of the match is Penafiel with an advantage of 123 points against 81. If we convert it to a percentage ratio, it will be 60.39% to 39.61%.

Bookmakers odds and probability

Now let's see who the bookmakers consider the favorite and compare their data with our calculations. The bookmakers estimate the probability of a draw in this match at 30.12% with a coefficient of 3.32. The coefficient for the home team's victory is 2.39, and for the away team's victory it is 3.55. If we exclude the draw, the probability of the home team's victory will be 59.75%, and the away team's victory - 40.25%. This differs from our calculations.

Match prediction

As a result of the analysis conducted, an inaccuracy was found in the bookmaker's line. In our opinion, the probability of Penafiel's victory is an order of magnitude higher than what the bookmakers think. The difference is 15.86%. The coefficient for the team's victory is 3.55, while in reality, it should be 2.37.

Our mathematical algorithm has detected significant inaccuracies in the bookmakers' odds for this match. Such a large difference can only mean that we have not taken into account some important factor that allows the bookmakers to set such odds. We cannot confidently recommend using our prediction for betting on this match, as the potential profit will be minimal.