Estudiantes de La Plata vs Rosario Central prediction

Estudiantes de La Plata

Match start date: Nov 21, 2024

VS

Tournament: Argentina. Primera Division

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Rosario Central

Our app uses a special algorithm to predict the outcome of the match between Estudiantes de La Plata and Rosario Central. This algorithm is designed to detect any inaccuracies in the bookmakers' odds by analyzing a vast amount of input data.

Estudiantes de La Plata

For Estudiantes de La Plata, we analyze their last 8 matches, taking into account various factors such as the quality of their performance, the match results, the location of the match (whether it was played at home or away), and the strength of their opponents. To determine the strength of the opponents, we look at the results of their previous matches. For each game, we will give the team Estudiantes de La Plata conditional points, which later will be used to determine the favorite.

10/11

Away

27 Central Cordoba

1:1

+38

06/11

Away

27 San Lorenzo

1:1

+37

01/11

Home

22 Independiente Rivadavia

1:1

+17

25/10

Away

13 Barracas Central

1:1

+16

20/10

Home

30 Instituto

3:2

+40

08/10

Away

23 Banfield

2:1

+41

28/09

Home

26 Defensa y Justicia

1:0

+26

24/09

Away

44 Velez Sarsfield

0:2

+7

Rosario Central

Similarly, for Rosario Central, we analyze their last 8 matches using the same approach.

10/11

Home

27 San Lorenzo

0:1

+16

05/11

Away

22 Independiente Rivadavia

1:1

+33

01/11

Home

13 Barracas Central

0:1

+8

26/10

Away

30 Instituto

0:0

+39

20/10

Home

23 Banfield

1:1

+15

08/10

Away

26 Defensa y Justicia

1:2

+27

02/10

Home

44 Velez Sarsfield

3:0

+109

23/09

Away

33 Atletico Platense

0:1

+29

Identifying the favourite

After analyzing both teams' last 8 matches, we've assigned 222 points to the home team and 277 points to the away team. This suggests that one team has an advantage over the other. However, it's important to consider that the home team (Estudiantes de La Plata) is playing on their own turf, which may slightly improve their chances of winning.

Accumulated points

Estudiantes de La Plata 222
Rosario Central 277

To determine what percentage of victories each team achieves at home and away, we've compiled statistics from several recent years to eliminate any chance-related factors. It turns out that 62.26% of victories for the team Estudiantes de La Plata occurred in home matches. For the team Rosario Central this indicator is 69.23%. On average, this equates to 65.75%, suggesting a slight advantage for Estudiantes de La Plata all other things being equal.

Percentage of home wins by teams

Estudiantes de La Plata

Estudiantes de La Plata 62.26%

Rosario Central

Rosario Central 69.23%

Average

Average 65.75%

Now, to determine the favorite of the match, we will take 65.75% of the home team's points and 34.25% of the away team's points. It turns out that the favorite of the match is Estudiantes de La Plata with an advantage of 146 points against 95. If we convert it to a percentage ratio, it will be 60.59% to 39.41%.

Points earned with home win percentage

Estudiantes de La Plata 146
Rosario Central 95

Bookmakers odds and probability

Now let's see who the bookmakers consider the favorite and compare their data with our calculations. The bookmakers estimate the probability of a draw in this match at 32.05% with a coefficient of 3.12. The coefficient for the home team's victory is 2.06, and for the away team's victory it is 5.17. If we exclude the draw, the probability of the home team's victory will be 71.53%, and the away team's victory - 28.47%. This differs from our calculations.

Comparison of calculated data with bookmakers

Bookmakers

Estudiantes de La Plata 71.53%
Rosario Central 28.47%

Our calculation

Estudiantes de La Plata 60.59%
Rosario Central 39.41%

Match prediction

As a result of the analysis conducted, an inaccuracy was found in the bookmaker's line. In our opinion, the probability of Rosario Central's victory is an order of magnitude higher than what the bookmakers think. The difference is 9.12%. The coefficient for the team's victory is 5.17, while in reality, it should be 3.73.

Comparison with bookmakers odds

Home Win

Draw

Away Win

Bookmakers

2.06

3.12

5.17

Our calculation

2.43

3.12

3.73

We suggest using our prediction. But we do not guarantee that the bet will definitely win. Our strategy is designed to generate profits over the long term.

Away Win

5.17

Our prediction statistics

2024 October

QUANTITY 2852

ROI +7.78%

EARNINGS +$22186

20 November 2024

QUANTITY 30

ROI +115.57%

EARNINGS +$3467

Week

QUANTITY 71

ROI +28.63%

EARNINGS +$2033

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