Dunav Ruse vs Pirin Blagoevgrad prediction

Dunav Ruse

Match start date: Apr 26, 2025

VS

Tournament: Bulgaria. 2nd League

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Pirin Blagoevgrad

Our app uses a special algorithm to predict the outcome of the match between Dunav Ruse and Pirin Blagoevgrad. This algorithm is designed to detect any inaccuracies in the bookmakers' odds by analyzing a vast amount of input data.

Dunav Ruse

For Dunav Ruse, we analyze their last 8 matches, taking into account various factors such as the quality of their performance, the match results, the location of the match (whether it was played at home or away), and the strength of their opponents. To determine the strength of the opponents, we look at the results of their previous matches. For each game, we will give the team Dunav Ruse conditional points, which later will be used to determine the favorite.

18/04

Home

34 CSKA 1948 II

1:0

+46

12/04

Away

28 Lokomotiv Gorna Oryahovitsa

1:2

+32

08/04

Home

27 Marek Dupnitsa

0:0

+18

03/04

Away

24 Etar

1:1

+32

29/03

Home

17 Botev Plovdiv II

4:0

+62

22/03

Away

20 Strumska Slava Radomir

0:0

+24

16/03

Home

29 Belasitsa Petrich

1:0

+27

09/03

Away

18 Minyor Pernik

2:0

+58

Pirin Blagoevgrad

Similarly, for Pirin Blagoevgrad, we analyze their last 8 matches using the same approach.

17/04

Home

44 Montana

0:4

+2

12/04

Away

34 CSKA 1948 II

1:2

+32

08/04

Home

19 Ludogorets Razgrad II

1:0

+28

04/04

Away

28 Lokomotiv Gorna Oryahovitsa

2:0

+93

29/03

Home

21 Nesebar

5:1

+102

22/03

Away

27 Marek Dupnitsa

1:0

+49

15/03

Home

24 Spartak Pleven

2:1

+31

06/03

Away

24 Etar

0:2

+3

Identifying the favourite

After analyzing both teams' last 8 matches, we've assigned 299 points to the home team and 339 points to the away team. This suggests that one team has an advantage over the other. However, it's important to consider that the home team (Dunav Ruse) is playing on their own turf, which may slightly improve their chances of winning.

Accumulated points

Dunav Ruse 299
Pirin Blagoevgrad 339

To determine what percentage of victories each team achieves at home and away, we've compiled statistics from several recent years to eliminate any chance-related factors. It turns out that 67.93% of victories for the team Dunav Ruse occurred in home matches. For the team Pirin Blagoevgrad this indicator is 47.46%. On average, this equates to 57.69%, suggesting a slight advantage for Dunav Ruse all other things being equal.

Percentage of home wins by teams

Dunav Ruse

Dunav Ruse 67.93%

Pirin Blagoevgrad

Pirin Blagoevgrad 47.46%

Average

Average 57.69%

Now, to determine the favorite of the match, we will take 57.69% of the home team's points and 42.31% of the away team's points. It turns out that the favorite of the match is Dunav Ruse with an advantage of 172 points against 144. If we convert it to a percentage ratio, it will be 54.58% to 45.42%.

Points earned with home win percentage

Dunav Ruse 172
Pirin Blagoevgrad 144

Bookmakers odds and probability

Now let's see who the bookmakers consider the favorite and compare their data with our calculations. The bookmakers estimate the probability of a draw in this match at 26.32% with a coefficient of 3.8. The coefficient for the home team's victory is 1.73, and for the away team's victory it is 6.27. If we exclude the draw, the probability of the home team's victory will be 78.36%, and the away team's victory - 21.64%. This differs from our calculations.

Comparison of calculated data with bookmakers

Bookmakers

Dunav Ruse 78.36%
Pirin Blagoevgrad 21.64%

Our calculation

Dunav Ruse 54.58%
Pirin Blagoevgrad 45.42%

Match prediction

As a result of the analysis conducted, an inaccuracy was found in the bookmaker's line. In our opinion, the probability of Pirin Blagoevgrad's victory is an order of magnitude higher than what the bookmakers think. The difference is 23.26%. The coefficient for the team's victory is 6.27, while in reality, it should be 2.99.

Comparison with bookmakers odds

Home Win

Draw

Away Win

Bookmakers

1.73

3.8

6.27

Our calculation

2.49

3.8

2.99

Our mathematical algorithm has detected significant inaccuracies in the bookmakers' odds for this match. Such a large difference can only mean that we have not taken into account some important factor that allows the bookmakers to set such odds. We cannot confidently recommend using our prediction for betting on this match, as the potential profit will be minimal.

Away Win

6.27

Our prediction statistics

2025 March

QUANTITY 2446

ROI +9.69%

EARNINGS +$23697

2025 April

QUANTITY 2401

ROI +6.95%

EARNINGS +$16694

Week

QUANTITY 371

ROI +15.8%

EARNINGS +$5862

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