Ayr United vs Dunfermline prediction

Ayr United

Match start date: Nov 23, 2024

VS

Tournament: Scotland. Championship

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Dunfermline

Our app uses a special algorithm to predict the outcome of the match between Ayr United and Dunfermline. This algorithm is designed to detect any inaccuracies in the bookmakers' odds by analyzing a vast amount of input data.

Ayr United

For Ayr United, we analyze their last 8 matches, taking into account various factors such as the quality of their performance, the match results, the location of the match (whether it was played at home or away), and the strength of their opponents. To determine the strength of the opponents, we look at the results of their previous matches. For each game, we will give the team Ayr United conditional points, which later will be used to determine the favorite.

16/11

Home

33 Queen's Park

3:2

+54

08/11

Away

22 Greenock Morton

1:1

+29

01/11

Away

23 Raith Rovers

0:2

+4

26/10

Away

8 Airdrieonians

1:0

+16

19/10

Home

43 Livingston

1:2

+23

05/10

Away

49 Falkirk

0:2

+7

28/09

Home

22 Greenock Morton

1:0

+26

21/09

Away

33 Queen's Park

1:1

+29

Dunfermline

Similarly, for Dunfermline, we analyze their last 8 matches using the same approach.

16/11

Home

8 Airdrieonians

1:0

+15

09/11

Away

33 Queen's Park

1:2

+27

02/11

Home

35 Partick Thistle

0:1

+28

29/10

Home

43 Livingston

3:0

+177

26/10

Away

49 Falkirk

1:2

+35

19/10

Home

22 Greenock Morton

0:0

+19

05/10

Away

8 Airdrieonians

1:1

+7

28/09

Home

33 Queen's Park

1:2

+22

Identifying the favourite

After analyzing both teams' last 8 matches, we've assigned 190 points to the home team and 331 points to the away team. This suggests that one team has an advantage over the other. However, it's important to consider that the home team (Ayr United) is playing on their own turf, which may slightly improve their chances of winning.

Accumulated points

Ayr United 190
Dunfermline 331

To determine what percentage of victories each team achieves at home and away, we've compiled statistics from several recent years to eliminate any chance-related factors. It turns out that 62.9% of victories for the team Ayr United occurred in home matches. For the team Dunfermline this indicator is 45.61%. On average, this equates to 54.26%, suggesting a slight advantage for Ayr United all other things being equal.

Percentage of home wins by teams

Ayr United

Ayr United 62.9%

Dunfermline

Dunfermline 45.61%

Average

Average 54.26%

Now, to determine the favorite of the match, we will take 54.26% of the home team's points and 45.74% of the away team's points. It turns out that the favorite of the match is Dunfermline with an advantage of 151 points against 103. If we convert it to a percentage ratio, it will be 59.51% to 40.49%.

Points earned with home win percentage

Ayr United 103
Dunfermline 151

Bookmakers odds and probability

Now let's see who the bookmakers consider the favorite and compare their data with our calculations. The bookmakers estimate the probability of a draw in this match at 27.62% with a coefficient of 3.62. The coefficient for the home team's victory is 2.04, and for the away team's victory it is 4.29. If we exclude the draw, the probability of the home team's victory will be 67.81%, and the away team's victory - 32.19%. This differs from our calculations.

Comparison of calculated data with bookmakers

Bookmakers

Ayr United 67.81%
Dunfermline 32.19%

Our calculation

Ayr United 40.49%
Dunfermline 59.51%

Match prediction

As a result of the analysis conducted, an inaccuracy was found in the bookmaker's line. In our opinion, the probability of Dunfermline's victory is an order of magnitude higher than what the bookmakers think. The difference is 26.98%. The coefficient for the team's victory is 4.29, while in reality, it should be 2.32.

Comparison with bookmakers odds

Home Win

Draw

Away Win

Bookmakers

2.04

3.62

4.29

Our calculation

3.41

3.62

2.32

Our mathematical algorithm has detected significant inaccuracies in the bookmakers' odds for this match. Such a large difference can only mean that we have not taken into account some important factor that allows the bookmakers to set such odds. We cannot confidently recommend using our prediction for betting on this match, as the potential profit will be minimal.

Away Win

4.29

Our prediction statistics

2024 October

QUANTITY 2852

ROI +7.78%

EARNINGS +$22186

Week

QUANTITY 451

ROI +14.91%

EARNINGS +$6723

2024 November

QUANTITY 2525

ROI +2.52%

EARNINGS +$6373

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