Varzim vs OS Belenenses prediction

Varzim

For Varzim, we analyze their last 8 matches, taking into account various factors such as the quality of their performance, the match results, the location of the match (whether it was played at home or away), and the strength of their opponents. To determine the strength of the opponents, we look at the results of their previous matches. For each game, we will give the team Varzim conditional points, which later will be used to determine the favorite.

OS Belenenses

Similarly, for OS Belenenses, we analyze their last 8 matches using the same approach.

Identifying the favourite

After analyzing both teams' last 8 matches, we've assigned 405 points to the home team and 339 points to the away team. This suggests that one team has an advantage over the other. However, it's important to consider that the home team (Varzim) is playing on their own turf, which may slightly improve their chances of winning.

To determine what percentage of victories each team achieves at home and away, we've compiled statistics from several recent years to eliminate any chance-related factors. It turns out that 67.74% of victories for the team Varzim occurred in home matches. For the team OS Belenenses this indicator is 60.71%. On average, this equates to 64.23%, suggesting a slight advantage for Varzim all other things being equal.

Now, to determine the favorite of the match, we will take 64.23% of the home team's points and 35.77% of the away team's points. It turns out that the favorite of the match is Varzim with an advantage of 260 points against 121. If we convert it to a percentage ratio, it will be 68.24% to 31.76%.

Bookmakers odds and probability

Now let's see who the bookmakers consider the favorite and compare their data with our calculations. The bookmakers estimate the probability of a draw in this match at 28.82% with a coefficient of 3.47. The coefficient for the home team's victory is 2.22, and for the away team's victory it is 3.83. If we exclude the draw, the probability of the home team's victory will be 63.3%, and the away team's victory - 36.7%. This differs from our calculations.

Match prediction

As a result of the analysis conducted, an inaccuracy was found in the bookmaker's line. In our opinion, the probability of Varzim's victory is an order of magnitude higher than what the bookmakers think. The difference is 4.94%. The coefficient for the team's victory is 2.22, while in reality, it should be 2.06.

The mathematical analysis of the betting odds for this match did not reveal any significant inaccuracies. We cannot confidently recommend using our forecast for bets on this match, as the potential profit will be minimal.