Beroe vs Septemvri Sofia prediction

Beroe

Match start date: Nov 24, 2024

VS

Tournament: Bulgaria. 1st League

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Septemvri Sofia

Our app uses a special algorithm to predict the outcome of the match between Beroe and Septemvri Sofia. This algorithm is designed to detect any inaccuracies in the bookmakers' odds by analyzing a vast amount of input data.

Beroe

For Beroe, we analyze their last 8 matches, taking into account various factors such as the quality of their performance, the match results, the location of the match (whether it was played at home or away), and the strength of their opponents. To determine the strength of the opponents, we look at the results of their previous matches. For each game, we will give the team Beroe conditional points, which later will be used to determine the favorite.

09/11

Home

39 Cherno More

0:1

+22

03/11

Away

24 CSKA 1948

1:1

+31

25/10

Away

40 Levski Sofia

2:0

+159

18/10

Home

39 Spartak Varna

3:0

+116

04/10

Away

39 Arda Kardzhali

1:1

+49

27/09

Home

24 Slavia Sofia

1:0

+29

21/09

Away

27 CSKA Sofia

0:1

+21

14/09

Home

46 Botev Plovdiv

0:1

+27

Septemvri Sofia

Similarly, for Septemvri Sofia, we analyze their last 8 matches using the same approach.

09/11

Away

40 Levski Sofia

3:2

+92

04/11

Home

46 Botev Plovdiv

1:0

+80

25/10

Away

39 Arda Kardzhali

1:2

+39

20/10

Home

61 Ludogorets Razgrad

0:2

+8

05/10

Away

27 CSKA Sofia

1:0

+47

30/09

Home

39 Spartak Varna

0:1

+20

25/09

Home

24 CSKA 1948

1:1

+20

20/09

Away

13 Hebar Pazardzhik

2:1

+20

Identifying the favourite

After analyzing both teams' last 8 matches, we've assigned 453 points to the home team and 326 points to the away team. This suggests that one team has an advantage over the other. However, it's important to consider that the home team (Beroe) is playing on their own turf, which may slightly improve their chances of winning.

Accumulated points

Beroe 453
Septemvri Sofia 326

To determine what percentage of victories each team achieves at home and away, we've compiled statistics from several recent years to eliminate any chance-related factors. It turns out that 64.52% of victories for the team Beroe occurred in home matches. For the team Septemvri Sofia this indicator is 53.73%. On average, this equates to 59.12%, suggesting a slight advantage for Beroe all other things being equal.

Percentage of home wins by teams

Beroe

Beroe 64.52%

Septemvri Sofia

Septemvri Sofia 53.73%

Average

Average 59.12%

Now, to determine the favorite of the match, we will take 59.12% of the home team's points and 40.88% of the away team's points. It turns out that the favorite of the match is Beroe with an advantage of 268 points against 133. If we convert it to a percentage ratio, it will be 66.81% to 33.19%.

Points earned with home win percentage

Beroe 268
Septemvri Sofia 133

Bookmakers odds and probability

Now let's see who the bookmakers consider the favorite and compare their data with our calculations. The bookmakers estimate the probability of a draw in this match at 26.53% with a coefficient of 3.77. The coefficient for the home team's victory is 1.74, and for the away team's victory it is 6.21. If we exclude the draw, the probability of the home team's victory will be 78.06%, and the away team's victory - 21.94%. This differs from our calculations.

Comparison of calculated data with bookmakers

Bookmakers

Beroe 78.06%
Septemvri Sofia 21.94%

Our calculation

Beroe 66.81%
Septemvri Sofia 33.19%

Match prediction

As a result of the analysis conducted, an inaccuracy was found in the bookmaker's line. In our opinion, the probability of Septemvri Sofia's victory is an order of magnitude higher than what the bookmakers think. The difference is 11.25%. The coefficient for the team's victory is 6.21, while in reality, it should be 4.1.

Comparison with bookmakers odds

Home Win

Draw

Away Win

Bookmakers

1.74

3.77

6.21

Our calculation

2.04

3.77

4.1

We suggest using our prediction. But we do not guarantee that the bet will definitely win. Our strategy is designed to generate profits over the long term.

Away Win

6.21

Our prediction statistics

2024 October

QUANTITY 2852

ROI +7.78%

EARNINGS +$22186

Week

QUANTITY 503

ROI +12.84%

EARNINGS +$6458

2024 November

QUANTITY 2575

ROI +2.36%

EARNINGS +$6078

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