Barracas Central vs Belgrano prediction

Barracas Central

Match start date: Nov 21, 2024

VS

Tournament: Argentina. Primera Division

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Belgrano

Our app uses a special algorithm to predict the outcome of the match between Barracas Central and Belgrano. This algorithm is designed to detect any inaccuracies in the bookmakers' odds by analyzing a vast amount of input data.

Barracas Central

For Barracas Central, we analyze their last 8 matches, taking into account various factors such as the quality of their performance, the match results, the location of the match (whether it was played at home or away), and the strength of their opponents. To determine the strength of the opponents, we look at the results of their previous matches. For each game, we will give the team Barracas Central conditional points, which later will be used to determine the favorite.

10/11

Away

33 River Plate

0:3

+4

06/11

Home

34 Racing de Avellaneda

0:2

+4

01/11

Away

26 Rosario Central

1:0

+61

25/10

Home

26 Estudiantes de La Plata

1:1

+21

21/10

Away

27 San Lorenzo

0:1

+25

07/10

Home

22 Independiente Rivadavia

1:1

+16

29/09

Away

27 Central Cordoba

1:2

+21

22/09

Away

30 Instituto

1:0

+47

Belgrano

Similarly, for Belgrano, we analyze their last 8 matches using the same approach.

12/11

Home

30 Instituto

3:1

+77

06/11

Away

23 Banfield

1:1

+31

03/11

Home

26 Defensa y Justicia

1:2

+13

27/10

Away

44 Velez Sarsfield

1:1

+60

19/10

Home

33 Atletico Platense

0:1

+16

06/10

Away

32 Talleres de Cordoba

0:0

+40

29/09

Home

30 Boca Juniors

2:0

+47

23/09

Away

33 Atletico Tucuman

4:2

+107

Identifying the favourite

After analyzing both teams' last 8 matches, we've assigned 199 points to the home team and 391 points to the away team. This suggests that one team has an advantage over the other. However, it's important to consider that the home team (Barracas Central) is playing on their own turf, which may slightly improve their chances of winning.

Accumulated points

Barracas Central 199
Belgrano 391

To determine what percentage of victories each team achieves at home and away, we've compiled statistics from several recent years to eliminate any chance-related factors. It turns out that 59.62% of victories for the team Barracas Central occurred in home matches. For the team Belgrano this indicator is 68.52%. On average, this equates to 64.07%, suggesting a slight advantage for Barracas Central all other things being equal.

Percentage of home wins by teams

Barracas Central

Barracas Central 59.62%

Belgrano

Belgrano 68.52%

Average

Average 64.07%

Now, to determine the favorite of the match, we will take 64.07% of the home team's points and 35.93% of the away team's points. It turns out that the favorite of the match is Belgrano with an advantage of 141 points against 128. If we convert it to a percentage ratio, it will be 52.44% to 47.56%.

Points earned with home win percentage

Barracas Central 128
Belgrano 141

Bookmakers odds and probability

Now let's see who the bookmakers consider the favorite and compare their data with our calculations. The bookmakers estimate the probability of a draw in this match at 30.03% with a coefficient of 3.33. The coefficient for the home team's victory is 3.99, and for the away team's victory it is 2.23. If we exclude the draw, the probability of the home team's victory will be 35.82%, and the away team's victory - 64.18%. This differs from our calculations.

Comparison of calculated data with bookmakers

Bookmakers

Barracas Central 35.82%
Belgrano 64.18%

Our calculation

Barracas Central 47.56%
Belgrano 52.44%

Match prediction

As a result of the analysis conducted, an inaccuracy was found in the bookmaker's line. In our opinion, the probability of Barracas Central's victory is an order of magnitude higher than what the bookmakers think. The difference is 11.73%. The coefficient for the team's victory is 3.99, while in reality, it should be 3.01.

Comparison with bookmakers odds

Home Win

Draw

Away Win

Bookmakers

3.99

3.33

2.23

Our calculation

3.01

3.33

2.73

We suggest using our prediction. But we do not guarantee that the bet will definitely win. Our strategy is designed to generate profits over the long term.

Home Win

3.99

Our prediction statistics

2024 October

QUANTITY 2852

ROI +7.78%

EARNINGS +$22186

20 November 2024

QUANTITY 30

ROI +115.57%

EARNINGS +$3467

Week

QUANTITY 71

ROI +28.63%

EARNINGS +$2033

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