For Yokohama Sports and Culture Club, we analyze their last 8 matches, taking into account various factors such as the quality of their performance, the match results, the location of the match (whether it was played at home or away), and the strength of their opponents. To determine the strength of the opponents, we look at the results of their previous matches. For each game, we will give the team Yokohama Sports and Culture Club conditional points, which later will be used to determine the favorite.
20/07
Away
21 Gainare Tottori
1:1
+24
13/07
Home
31 Fukushima United
2:1
+56
07/07
Away
26 Nara
2:2
+28
29/06
Home
33 Azul Claro Numazu
1:0
+47
23/06
Away
31 Vanraure Hachinohe
0:1
+25
15/06
Home
29 Gifu
1:2
+18
08/06
Away
26 Nagano Parceiro
0:4
+1
02/06
Home
18 Tegevajaro Miyazaki
0:2
+2
Similarly, for Vanraure Hachinohe, we analyze their last 8 matches using the same approach.
20/07
Away
39 Zweigen Kanazawa
0:1
+37
13/07
Home
21 Gainare Tottori
1:0
+39
06/07
Home
30 Matsumoto Yamaga
1:0
+50
29/06
Away
29 Gifu
2:1
+53
23/06
Home
25 Yokohama Sports and Culture Club
1:0
+38
16/06
Home
18 Tegevajaro Miyazaki
0:0
+16
09/06
Away
31 Fukushima United
0:2
+4
02/06
Home
39 Zweigen Kanazawa
2:2
+30
After analyzing both teams' last 8 matches, we've assigned 201 points to the home team and 267 points to the away team. This suggests that one team has an advantage over the other. However, it's important to consider that the home team (Yokohama Sports and Culture Club) is playing on their own turf, which may slightly improve their chances of winning.
Accumulated points
To determine what percentage of victories each team achieves at home and away, we've compiled statistics from several recent years to eliminate any chance-related factors. It turns out that 54.1% of victories for the team Yokohama Sports and Culture Club occurred in home matches. For the team Vanraure Hachinohe this indicator is 51.72%. On average, this equates to 52.91%, suggesting a slight advantage for Yokohama Sports and Culture Club all other things being equal.
Percentage of home wins by teams
Yokohama Sports and Culture Club
Yokohama Sports and Culture Club 54.1%
Vanraure Hachinohe
Vanraure Hachinohe 51.72%
Average
Average 52.91%
Now, to determine the favorite of the match, we will take 52.91% of the home team's points and 47.09% of the away team's points. It turns out that the favorite of the match is Vanraure Hachinohe with an advantage of 126 points against 106. If we convert it to a percentage ratio, it will be 54.1% to 45.9%.
Points earned with home win percentage
Now let's see who the bookmakers consider the favorite and compare their data with our calculations. The bookmakers estimate the probability of a draw in this match at 29.15% with a coefficient of 3.43. The coefficient for the home team's victory is 4.34, and for the away team's victory it is 2.09. If we exclude the draw, the probability of the home team's victory will be 32.53%, and the away team's victory - 67.47%. This differs from our calculations.
Comparison of calculated data with bookmakers
Bookmakers
Our calculation
As a result of the analysis conducted, an inaccuracy was found in the bookmaker's line. In our opinion, the probability of Yokohama Sports and Culture Club's victory is an order of magnitude higher than what the bookmakers think. The difference is 12.1%. The coefficient for the team's victory is 4.34, while in reality, it should be 3.08.
Comparison with bookmakers odds
Home Win
Draw
Away Win
Bookmakers
4.34
3.43
2.09
Our calculation
3.08
3.43
2.61
We suggest using our prediction. But we do not guarantee that the bet will definitely win. Our strategy is designed to generate profits over the long term.
Home Win
4.34
2024 June
QUANTITY 1383
ROI +10.03%
EARNINGS +$13868
2024 July
QUANTITY 1211
ROI +7.75%
EARNINGS +$9384
Japan. J League. Division 3
QUANTITY 483
ROI +11.82%
EARNINGS +$5711
USA. USL. Championship
Uruguay. Primera Division
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