Wolverhampton Wanderers vs Nottingham Forest prediction

Wolverhampton Wanderers

Match start date: Jan 6, 2025

VS

Tournament: England. Premier League

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Nottingham Forest

Our app uses a special algorithm to predict the outcome of the match between Wolverhampton Wanderers and Nottingham Forest. This algorithm is designed to detect any inaccuracies in the bookmakers' odds by analyzing a vast amount of input data.

Wolverhampton Wanderers

For Wolverhampton Wanderers, we analyze their last 8 matches, taking into account various factors such as the quality of their performance, the match results, the location of the match (whether it was played at home or away), and the strength of their opponents. To determine the strength of the opponents, we look at the results of their previous matches. For each game, we will give the team Wolverhampton Wanderers conditional points, which later will be used to determine the favorite.

29/12

Away

28 Tottenham Hotspur

2:2

+37

26/12

Home

25 Manchester United

2:0

+69

22/12

Away

15 Leicester City

3:0

+90

14/12

Home

18 Ipswich Town

1:2

+11

09/12

Away

25 West Ham United

1:2

+24

04/12

Away

20 Everton

0:4

+1

30/11

Home

35 Bournemouth

2:4

+3

23/11

Away

32 Fulham

4:1

+150

Nottingham Forest

Similarly, for Nottingham Forest, we analyze their last 8 matches using the same approach.

29/12

Away

20 Everton

2:0

+70

26/12

Home

28 Tottenham Hotspur

1:0

+50

21/12

Away

30 Brentford

2:0

+107

14/12

Home

33 Aston Villa

2:1

+49

07/12

Away

25 Manchester United

3:2

+45

04/12

Away

37 Manchester City

0:3

+3

30/11

Home

18 Ipswich Town

1:0

+23

23/11

Away

44 Arsenal

0:3

+3

Identifying the favourite

After analyzing both teams' last 8 matches, we've assigned 386 points to the home team and 350 points to the away team. This suggests that one team has an advantage over the other. However, it's important to consider that the home team (Wolverhampton Wanderers) is playing on their own turf, which may slightly improve their chances of winning.

Accumulated points

Wolverhampton Wanderers 386
Nottingham Forest 350

To determine what percentage of victories each team achieves at home and away, we've compiled statistics from several recent years to eliminate any chance-related factors. It turns out that 60.94% of victories for the team Wolverhampton Wanderers occurred in home matches. For the team Nottingham Forest this indicator is 49.12%. On average, this equates to 55.03%, suggesting a slight advantage for Wolverhampton Wanderers all other things being equal.

Percentage of home wins by teams

Wolverhampton Wanderers

Wolverhampton Wanderers 60.94%

Nottingham Forest

Nottingham Forest 49.12%

Average

Average 55.03%

Now, to determine the favorite of the match, we will take 55.03% of the home team's points and 44.97% of the away team's points. It turns out that the favorite of the match is Wolverhampton Wanderers with an advantage of 213 points against 157. If we convert it to a percentage ratio, it will be 57.49% to 42.51%.

Points earned with home win percentage

Wolverhampton Wanderers 213
Nottingham Forest 157

Bookmakers odds and probability

Now let's see who the bookmakers consider the favorite and compare their data with our calculations. The bookmakers estimate the probability of a draw in this match at 27.78% with a coefficient of 3.6. The coefficient for the home team's victory is 4.14, and for the away team's victory it is 2.08. If we exclude the draw, the probability of the home team's victory will be 33.45%, and the away team's victory - 66.56%. This differs from our calculations.

Comparison of calculated data with bookmakers

Bookmakers

Wolverhampton Wanderers 33.45%
Nottingham Forest 66.56%

Our calculation

Wolverhampton Wanderers 57.49%
Nottingham Forest 42.51%

Match prediction

As a result of the analysis conducted, an inaccuracy was found in the bookmaker's line. In our opinion, the probability of Wolverhampton Wanderers's victory is an order of magnitude higher than what the bookmakers think. The difference is 19.75%. The coefficient for the team's victory is 4.14, while in reality, it should be 2.41.

Comparison with bookmakers odds

Home Win

Draw

Away Win

Bookmakers

4.14

3.6

2.08

Our calculation

2.41

3.6

3.26

Our mathematical algorithm has detected significant inaccuracies in the bookmakers' odds for this match. Such a large difference can only mean that we have not taken into account some important factor that allows the bookmakers to set such odds. We cannot confidently recommend using our prediction for betting on this match, as the potential profit will be minimal.

Home Win

4.14

Our prediction statistics

2024 December

QUANTITY 2250

ROI +3.69%

EARNINGS +$8294

2025 January

QUANTITY 323

ROI +8.49%

EARNINGS +$2742

5 January 2025

QUANTITY 69

ROI +35.26%

EARNINGS +$2433

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