For Wolverhampton Wanderers, we analyze their last 8 matches, taking into account various factors such as the quality of their performance, the match results, the location of the match (whether it was played at home or away), and the strength of their opponents. To determine the strength of the opponents, we look at the results of their previous matches. For each game, we will give the team Wolverhampton Wanderers conditional points, which later will be used to determine the favorite.
29/12
Away
28 Tottenham Hotspur
2:2
+37
26/12
Home
25 Manchester United
2:0
+69
22/12
Away
15 Leicester City
3:0
+90
14/12
Home
18 Ipswich Town
1:2
+11
09/12
Away
25 West Ham United
1:2
+24
04/12
Away
20 Everton
0:4
+1
30/11
Home
35 Bournemouth
2:4
+3
23/11
Away
32 Fulham
4:1
+150
Similarly, for Nottingham Forest, we analyze their last 8 matches using the same approach.
29/12
Away
20 Everton
2:0
+70
26/12
Home
28 Tottenham Hotspur
1:0
+50
21/12
Away
30 Brentford
2:0
+107
14/12
Home
33 Aston Villa
2:1
+49
07/12
Away
25 Manchester United
3:2
+45
04/12
Away
37 Manchester City
0:3
+3
30/11
Home
18 Ipswich Town
1:0
+23
23/11
Away
44 Arsenal
0:3
+3
After analyzing both teams' last 8 matches, we've assigned 386 points to the home team and 350 points to the away team. This suggests that one team has an advantage over the other. However, it's important to consider that the home team (Wolverhampton Wanderers) is playing on their own turf, which may slightly improve their chances of winning.
Accumulated points
To determine what percentage of victories each team achieves at home and away, we've compiled statistics from several recent years to eliminate any chance-related factors. It turns out that 60.94% of victories for the team Wolverhampton Wanderers occurred in home matches. For the team Nottingham Forest this indicator is 49.12%. On average, this equates to 55.03%, suggesting a slight advantage for Wolverhampton Wanderers all other things being equal.
Percentage of home wins by teams
Wolverhampton Wanderers
Wolverhampton Wanderers 60.94%
Nottingham Forest
Nottingham Forest 49.12%
Average
Average 55.03%
Now, to determine the favorite of the match, we will take 55.03% of the home team's points and 44.97% of the away team's points. It turns out that the favorite of the match is Wolverhampton Wanderers with an advantage of 213 points against 157. If we convert it to a percentage ratio, it will be 57.49% to 42.51%.
Points earned with home win percentage
Now let's see who the bookmakers consider the favorite and compare their data with our calculations. The bookmakers estimate the probability of a draw in this match at 27.78% with a coefficient of 3.6. The coefficient for the home team's victory is 4.14, and for the away team's victory it is 2.08. If we exclude the draw, the probability of the home team's victory will be 33.45%, and the away team's victory - 66.56%. This differs from our calculations.
Comparison of calculated data with bookmakers
Bookmakers
Our calculation
As a result of the analysis conducted, an inaccuracy was found in the bookmaker's line. In our opinion, the probability of Wolverhampton Wanderers's victory is an order of magnitude higher than what the bookmakers think. The difference is 19.75%. The coefficient for the team's victory is 4.14, while in reality, it should be 2.41.
Comparison with bookmakers odds
Home Win
Draw
Away Win
Bookmakers
4.14
3.6
2.08
Our calculation
2.41
3.6
3.26
Our mathematical algorithm has detected significant inaccuracies in the bookmakers' odds for this match. Such a large difference can only mean that we have not taken into account some important factor that allows the bookmakers to set such odds. We cannot confidently recommend using our prediction for betting on this match, as the potential profit will be minimal.
Home Win
4.14
2024 December
QUANTITY 2250
ROI +3.69%
EARNINGS +$8294
2025 January
QUANTITY 323
ROI +8.49%
EARNINGS +$2742
5 January 2025
QUANTITY 69
ROI +35.26%
EARNINGS +$2433
Cyprus. 1st Division
2025 © betzax.com