For Villa San Carlos, we analyze their last 8 matches, taking into account various factors such as the quality of their performance, the match results, the location of the match (whether it was played at home or away), and the strength of their opponents. To determine the strength of the opponents, we look at the results of their previous matches. For each game, we will give the team Villa San Carlos conditional points, which later will be used to determine the favorite.
22/07
Away
18 Sacachispas
0:0
+25
14/07
Home
33 Excursionistas
2:2
+28
09/07
Away
20 Acassuso
2:1
+41
06/07
Home
19 San Martin Burzaco
0:0
+13
29/06
Away
28 Deportivo UAI Urquiza
0:1
+26
22/06
Home
53 Colegiales
0:2
+6
15/06
Home
32 Dock Sud
2:2
+22
09/06
Away
27 Flandria
0:3
+2
Similarly, for Deportivo Merlo, we analyze their last 8 matches using the same approach.
20/07
Home
16 Sportivo Italiano
1:1
+14
14/07
Away
34 Argentino de Merlo
0:4
+2
10/07
Home
25 Liniers
0:1
+17
06/07
Away
27 Comunicaciones
0:2
+4
29/06
Home
42 Deportivo Armenio
2:2
+40
24/06
Away
35 Argentino de Quilmes
0:0
+36
18/06
Away
32 Fenix
0:2
+4
09/06
Home
40 Midland
0:0
+29
After analyzing both teams' last 8 matches, we've assigned 162 points to the home team and 146 points to the away team. This suggests that one team has an advantage over the other. However, it's important to consider that the home team (Villa San Carlos) is playing on their own turf, which may slightly improve their chances of winning.
Accumulated points
To determine what percentage of victories each team achieves at home and away, we've compiled statistics from several recent years to eliminate any chance-related factors. It turns out that 60.78% of victories for the team Villa San Carlos occurred in home matches. For the team Deportivo Merlo this indicator is 55.77%. On average, this equates to 58.28%, suggesting a slight advantage for Villa San Carlos all other things being equal.
Percentage of home wins by teams
Villa San Carlos
Villa San Carlos 60.78%
Deportivo Merlo
Deportivo Merlo 55.77%
Average
Average 58.28%
Now, to determine the favorite of the match, we will take 58.28% of the home team's points and 41.72% of the away team's points. It turns out that the favorite of the match is Villa San Carlos with an advantage of 95 points against 61. If we convert it to a percentage ratio, it will be 60.81% to 39.19%.
Points earned with home win percentage
Now let's see who the bookmakers consider the favorite and compare their data with our calculations. The bookmakers estimate the probability of a draw in this match at 33.11% with a coefficient of 3.02. The coefficient for the home team's victory is 2.91, and for the away team's victory it is 3.08. If we exclude the draw, the probability of the home team's victory will be 51.45%, and the away team's victory - 48.55%. This differs from our calculations.
Comparison of calculated data with bookmakers
Bookmakers
Our calculation
As a result of the analysis conducted, an inaccuracy was found in the bookmaker's line. In our opinion, the probability of Villa San Carlos's victory is an order of magnitude higher than what the bookmakers think. The difference is 8.79%. The coefficient for the team's victory is 2.91, while in reality, it should be 2.46.
Comparison with bookmakers odds
Home Win
Draw
Away Win
Bookmakers
2.91
3.02
3.08
Our calculation
2.46
3.02
3.82
We suggest using our prediction. But we do not guarantee that the bet will definitely win. Our strategy is designed to generate profits over the long term.
Home Win
2.91
2024 June
QUANTITY 1383
ROI +10.03%
EARNINGS +$13868
2024 July
QUANTITY 1211
ROI +7.75%
EARNINGS +$9384
15 July 2024 - 21 July 2024
QUANTITY 280
ROI +14.85%
EARNINGS +$4158
USA. USL. Championship
Uruguay. Primera Division
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