Venezia vs Napoli prediction

Venezia

Match start date: Mar 16, 2025

VS

Tournament: Italy. Serie A

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Napoli

Our app uses a special algorithm to predict the outcome of the match between Venezia and Napoli. This algorithm is designed to detect any inaccuracies in the bookmakers' odds by analyzing a vast amount of input data.

Venezia

For Venezia, we analyze their last 8 matches, taking into account various factors such as the quality of their performance, the match results, the location of the match (whether it was played at home or away), and the strength of their opponents. To determine the strength of the opponents, we look at the results of their previous matches. For each game, we will give the team Venezia conditional points, which later will be used to determine the favorite.

08/03

Away

22 Como

1:1

+32

01/03

Away

49 Atalanta

0:0

+65

22/02

Home

41 Lazio

0:0

+31

17/02

Away

31 Genoa

0:2

+6

09/02

Home

38 Roma

0:1

+19

01/02

Away

29 Udinese

2:3

+24

27/01

Home

18 Verona

1:1

+11

19/01

Away

19 Parma

1:1

+19

Napoli

Similarly, for Napoli, we analyze their last 8 matches using the same approach.

09/03

Home

34 Fiorentina

2:1

+53

01/03

Home

48 Inter

1:1

+47

23/02

Away

22 Como

1:2

+21

15/02

Away

41 Lazio

2:2

+46

09/02

Home

29 Udinese

1:1

+27

02/02

Away

38 Roma

1:1

+43

25/01

Home

39 Juventus

2:1

+50

18/01

Away

49 Atalanta

3:2

+75

Identifying the favourite

After analyzing both teams' last 8 matches, we've assigned 207 points to the home team and 362 points to the away team. This suggests that one team has an advantage over the other. However, it's important to consider that the home team (Venezia) is playing on their own turf, which may slightly improve their chances of winning.

Accumulated points

Venezia 207
Napoli 362

To determine what percentage of victories each team achieves at home and away, we've compiled statistics from several recent years to eliminate any chance-related factors. It turns out that 65.57% of victories for the team Venezia occurred in home matches. For the team Napoli this indicator is 52.63%. On average, this equates to 59.1%, suggesting a slight advantage for Venezia all other things being equal.

Percentage of home wins by teams

Venezia

Venezia 65.57%

Napoli

Napoli 52.63%

Average

Average 59.1%

Now, to determine the favorite of the match, we will take 59.1% of the home team's points and 40.9% of the away team's points. It turns out that the favorite of the match is Napoli with an advantage of 148 points against 122. If we convert it to a percentage ratio, it will be 54.79% to 45.21%.

Points earned with home win percentage

Venezia 122
Napoli 148

Bookmakers odds and probability

Now let's see who the bookmakers consider the favorite and compare their data with our calculations. The bookmakers estimate the probability of a draw in this match at 22.12% with a coefficient of 4.52. The coefficient for the home team's victory is 7.88, and for the away team's victory it is 1.53. If we exclude the draw, the probability of the home team's victory will be 16.3%, and the away team's victory - 83.71%. This differs from our calculations.

Comparison of calculated data with bookmakers

Bookmakers

Venezia 16.3%
Napoli 83.71%

Our calculation

Venezia 45.21%
Napoli 54.79%

Match prediction

As a result of the analysis conducted, an inaccuracy was found in the bookmaker's line. In our opinion, the probability of Venezia's victory is an order of magnitude higher than what the bookmakers think. The difference is 28.07%. The coefficient for the team's victory is 7.88, while in reality, it should be 2.84.

Comparison with bookmakers odds

Home Win

Draw

Away Win

Bookmakers

7.88

4.52

1.53

Our calculation

2.84

4.52

2.34

Our mathematical algorithm has detected significant inaccuracies in the bookmakers' odds for this match. Such a large difference can only mean that we have not taken into account some important factor that allows the bookmakers to set such odds. We cannot confidently recommend using our prediction for betting on this match, as the potential profit will be minimal.

Home Win

7.88

Our prediction statistics

2025 February

QUANTITY 2259

ROI +13.41%

EARNINGS +$30296

2025 March

QUANTITY 1635

ROI +9.07%

EARNINGS +$14830

Previous week

QUANTITY 620

ROI +13.84%

EARNINGS +$8583

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