For Venezia, we analyze their last 8 matches, taking into account various factors such as the quality of their performance, the match results, the location of the match (whether it was played at home or away), and the strength of their opponents. To determine the strength of the opponents, we look at the results of their previous matches. For each game, we will give the team Venezia conditional points, which later will be used to determine the favorite.
08/03
Away
22 Como
1:1
+32
01/03
Away
49 Atalanta
0:0
+65
22/02
Home
41 Lazio
0:0
+31
17/02
Away
31 Genoa
0:2
+6
09/02
Home
38 Roma
0:1
+19
01/02
Away
29 Udinese
2:3
+24
27/01
Home
18 Verona
1:1
+11
19/01
Away
19 Parma
1:1
+19
Similarly, for Napoli, we analyze their last 8 matches using the same approach.
09/03
Home
34 Fiorentina
2:1
+53
01/03
Home
48 Inter
1:1
+47
23/02
Away
22 Como
1:2
+21
15/02
Away
41 Lazio
2:2
+46
09/02
Home
29 Udinese
1:1
+27
02/02
Away
38 Roma
1:1
+43
25/01
Home
39 Juventus
2:1
+50
18/01
Away
49 Atalanta
3:2
+75
After analyzing both teams' last 8 matches, we've assigned 207 points to the home team and 362 points to the away team. This suggests that one team has an advantage over the other. However, it's important to consider that the home team (Venezia) is playing on their own turf, which may slightly improve their chances of winning.
Accumulated points
To determine what percentage of victories each team achieves at home and away, we've compiled statistics from several recent years to eliminate any chance-related factors. It turns out that 65.57% of victories for the team Venezia occurred in home matches. For the team Napoli this indicator is 52.63%. On average, this equates to 59.1%, suggesting a slight advantage for Venezia all other things being equal.
Percentage of home wins by teams
Venezia
Venezia 65.57%
Napoli
Napoli 52.63%
Average
Average 59.1%
Now, to determine the favorite of the match, we will take 59.1% of the home team's points and 40.9% of the away team's points. It turns out that the favorite of the match is Napoli with an advantage of 148 points against 122. If we convert it to a percentage ratio, it will be 54.79% to 45.21%.
Points earned with home win percentage
Now let's see who the bookmakers consider the favorite and compare their data with our calculations. The bookmakers estimate the probability of a draw in this match at 23.2% with a coefficient of 4.31. The coefficient for the home team's victory is 7.04, and for the away team's victory it is 1.6. If we exclude the draw, the probability of the home team's victory will be 18.49%, and the away team's victory - 81.51%. This differs from our calculations.
Comparison of calculated data with bookmakers
Bookmakers
Our calculation
As a result of the analysis conducted, an inaccuracy was found in the bookmaker's line. In our opinion, the probability of Venezia's victory is an order of magnitude higher than what the bookmakers think. The difference is 26.4%. The coefficient for the team's victory is 7.04, while in reality, it should be 2.88.
Comparison with bookmakers odds
Home Win
Draw
Away Win
Bookmakers
7.04
4.31
1.6
Our calculation
2.88
4.31
2.38
Our mathematical algorithm has detected significant inaccuracies in the bookmakers' odds for this match. Such a large difference can only mean that we have not taken into account some important factor that allows the bookmakers to set such odds. We cannot confidently recommend using our prediction for betting on this match, as the potential profit will be minimal.
Home Win
7.04
2025 February
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2025 March
QUANTITY 1475
ROI +9.14%
EARNINGS +$13487
Previous week
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ROI +11.65%
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