For Utsiktens, we analyze their last 8 matches, taking into account various factors such as the quality of their performance, the match results, the location of the match (whether it was played at home or away), and the strength of their opponents. To determine the strength of the opponents, we look at the results of their previous matches. For each game, we will give the team Utsiktens conditional points, which later will be used to determine the favorite.
21/07
Away
35 Sandvikens
2:1
+70
29/06
Home
24 Oddevold
2:3
+16
23/06
Away
26 Ostersunds
0:1
+26
15/06
Home
23 Varbergs
0:1
+18
01/06
Away
38 Degerfors
1:3
+6
27/05
Home
31 Brage
1:0
+40
23/05
Away
25 Orebro
1:0
+43
17/05
Home
42 Osters
1:1
+29
Similarly, for Sandvikens, we analyze their last 8 matches using the same approach.
21/07
Home
31 Utsiktens
1:2
+26
29/06
Away
38 Degerfors
1:4
+4
23/06
Away
25 Skovde AIK
2:0
+93
16/06
Home
24 Oddevold
2:0
+57
01/06
Away
26 Ostersunds
2:0
+86
26/05
Home
21 Orgryte
3:1
+56
22/05
Away
14 Sundsvall
0:0
+14
19/05
Home
23 Varbergs
3:1
+53
After analyzing both teams' last 8 matches, we've assigned 249 points to the home team and 389 points to the away team. This suggests that one team has an advantage over the other. However, it's important to consider that the home team (Utsiktens) is playing on their own turf, which may slightly improve their chances of winning.
Accumulated points
To determine what percentage of victories each team achieves at home and away, we've compiled statistics from several recent years to eliminate any chance-related factors. It turns out that 54.1% of victories for the team Utsiktens occurred in home matches. For the team Sandvikens this indicator is 50%. On average, this equates to 52.05%, suggesting a slight advantage for Utsiktens all other things being equal.
Percentage of home wins by teams
Utsiktens
Utsiktens 54.1%
Sandvikens
Sandvikens 50%
Average
Average 52.05%
Now, to determine the favorite of the match, we will take 52.05% of the home team's points and 47.95% of the away team's points. It turns out that the favorite of the match is Sandvikens with an advantage of 186 points against 130. If we convert it to a percentage ratio, it will be 58.98% to 41.02%.
Points earned with home win percentage
Now let's see who the bookmakers consider the favorite and compare their data with our calculations. The bookmakers estimate the probability of a draw in this match at 25.71% with a coefficient of 3.89. The coefficient for the home team's victory is 2.64, and for the away team's victory it is 2.75. If we exclude the draw, the probability of the home team's victory will be 50.99%, and the away team's victory - 49.01%. This differs from our calculations.
Comparison of calculated data with bookmakers
Bookmakers
Our calculation
As a result of the analysis conducted, an inaccuracy was found in the bookmaker's line. In our opinion, the probability of Sandvikens's victory is an order of magnitude higher than what the bookmakers think. The difference is 8.38%. The coefficient for the team's victory is 2.75, while in reality, it should be 2.28.
Comparison with bookmakers odds
Home Win
Draw
Away Win
Bookmakers
2.64
3.89
2.75
Our calculation
3.28
3.89
2.28
We suggest using our prediction. But we do not guarantee that the bet will definitely win. Our strategy is designed to generate profits over the long term.
Away Win
2.75
2024 June
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15 July 2024 - 21 July 2024
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