For Tukums-2000, we analyze their last 8 matches, taking into account various factors such as the quality of their performance, the match results, the location of the match (whether it was played at home or away), and the strength of their opponents. To determine the strength of the opponents, we look at the results of their previous matches. For each game, we will give the team Tukums-2000 conditional points, which later will be used to determine the favorite.
02/05
Home
15 Liepaja
0:0
+16
27/04
Home
39 Valmiera
1:2
+30
21/04
Away
28 Auda
0:2
+5
16/04
Home
46 Riga FC
2:1
+68
12/04
Away
50 Rigas Futbola Skola
0:5
+2
08/04
Home
21 METTA/LU
0:0
+19
04/04
Home
18 Grobinas
2:0
+39
30/03
Away
38 BFC Daugavpils
1:3
+5
Similarly, for Jelgava, we analyze their last 8 matches using the same approach.
03/05
Away
38 BFC Daugavpils
0:1
+42
28/04
Home
18 Grobinas
2:1
+27
23/04
Away
15 Liepaja
1:0
+32
18/04
Home
39 Valmiera
0:3
+3
13/04
Home
28 Auda
0:0
+23
08/04
Away
46 Riga FC
0:2
+7
03/04
Away
50 Rigas Futbola Skola
1:5
+2
29/03
Home
21 METTA/LU
0:1
+13
After analyzing both teams' last 8 matches, we've assigned 184 points to the home team and 148 points to the away team. This suggests that one team has an advantage over the other. However, it's important to consider that the home team (Tukums-2000) is playing on their own turf, which may slightly improve their chances of winning.
Accumulated points
To determine what percentage of victories each team achieves at home and away, we've compiled statistics from several recent years to eliminate any chance-related factors. It turns out that 54.55% of victories for the team Tukums-2000 occurred in home matches. For the team Jelgava this indicator is 58.73%. On average, this equates to 56.64%, suggesting a slight advantage for Tukums-2000 all other things being equal.
Percentage of home wins by teams
Tukums-2000
Tukums-2000 54.55%
Jelgava
Jelgava 58.73%
Average
Average 56.64%
Now, to determine the favorite of the match, we will take 56.64% of the home team's points and 43.36% of the away team's points. It turns out that the favorite of the match is Tukums-2000 with an advantage of 104 points against 64. If we convert it to a percentage ratio, it will be 61.87% to 38.13%.
Points earned with home win percentage
Now let's see who the bookmakers consider the favorite and compare their data with our calculations. The bookmakers estimate the probability of a draw in this match at 28.57% with a coefficient of 3.5. The coefficient for the home team's victory is 2.91, and for the away team's victory it is 2.7. If we exclude the draw, the probability of the home team's victory will be 48.13%, and the away team's victory - 51.87%. This differs from our calculations.
Comparison of calculated data with bookmakers
Bookmakers
Our calculation
As a result of the analysis conducted, an inaccuracy was found in the bookmaker's line. In our opinion, the probability of Tukums-2000's victory is an order of magnitude higher than what the bookmakers think. The difference is 12.95%. The coefficient for the team's victory is 2.91, while in reality, it should be 2.26.
Comparison with bookmakers odds
Home Win
Draw
Away Win
Bookmakers
2.91
3.5
2.7
Our calculation
2.26
3.5
3.67
We suggest using our prediction. But we do not guarantee that the bet will definitely win. Our strategy is designed to generate profits over the long term.
Home Win
2.91
2024 April
QUANTITY 2867
ROI +7.39%
EARNINGS +$21176
29 April 2024 - 5 May 2024
QUANTITY 709
ROI +5.25%
EARNINGS +$3723
6 May 2024
QUANTITY 71
ROI +34.66%
EARNINGS +$2461
Italy. Serie A
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