Torino vs Empoli prediction

Torino

Match start date: Mar 15, 2025

VS

Tournament: Italy. Serie A

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Empoli

Our app uses a special algorithm to predict the outcome of the match between Torino and Empoli. This algorithm is designed to detect any inaccuracies in the bookmakers' odds by analyzing a vast amount of input data.

Torino

For Torino, we analyze their last 8 matches, taking into account various factors such as the quality of their performance, the match results, the location of the match (whether it was played at home or away), and the strength of their opponents. To determine the strength of the opponents, we look at the results of their previous matches. For each game, we will give the team Torino conditional points, which later will be used to determine the favorite.

08/03

Away

19 Parma

2:2

+25

02/03

Away

8 Monza

2:0

+30

22/02

Home

32 Milan

2:1

+45

14/02

Away

43 Bologna

2:3

+41

08/02

Home

28 Genoa

1:1

+22

01/02

Away

49 Atalanta

1:1

+50

24/01

Home

19 Cagliari

2:0

+39

19/01

Away

34 Fiorentina

1:1

+33

Empoli

Similarly, for Empoli, we analyze their last 8 matches using the same approach.

09/03

Home

38 Roma

0:1

+28

02/03

Away

28 Genoa

1:1

+35

23/02

Home

49 Atalanta

0:5

+2

16/02

Away

29 Udinese

0:3

+2

08/02

Home

32 Milan

0:2

+4

02/02

Away

39 Juventus

1:4

+3

25/01

Home

43 Bologna

1:1

+32

19/01

Away

48 Inter

1:3

+6

Identifying the favourite

After analyzing both teams' last 8 matches, we've assigned 285 points to the home team and 113 points to the away team. This suggests that one team has an advantage over the other. However, it's important to consider that the home team (Torino) is playing on their own turf, which may slightly improve their chances of winning.

Accumulated points

Torino 285
Empoli 113

To determine what percentage of victories each team achieves at home and away, we've compiled statistics from several recent years to eliminate any chance-related factors. It turns out that 58.82% of victories for the team Torino occurred in home matches. For the team Empoli this indicator is 50%. On average, this equates to 54.41%, suggesting a slight advantage for Torino all other things being equal.

Percentage of home wins by teams

Torino

Torino 58.82%

Empoli

Empoli 50%

Average

Average 54.41%

Now, to determine the favorite of the match, we will take 54.41% of the home team's points and 45.59% of the away team's points. It turns out that the favorite of the match is Torino with an advantage of 155 points against 51. If we convert it to a percentage ratio, it will be 75.13% to 24.87%.

Points earned with home win percentage

Torino 155
Empoli 51

Bookmakers odds and probability

Now let's see who the bookmakers consider the favorite and compare their data with our calculations. The bookmakers estimate the probability of a draw in this match at 28.09% with a coefficient of 3.56. The coefficient for the home team's victory is 2, and for the away team's victory it is 4.58. If we exclude the draw, the probability of the home team's victory will be 69.6%, and the away team's victory - 30.4%. This differs from our calculations.

Comparison of calculated data with bookmakers

Bookmakers

Torino 69.6%
Empoli 30.4%

Our calculation

Torino 75.13%
Empoli 24.87%

Match prediction

As a result of the analysis conducted, an inaccuracy was found in the bookmaker's line. In our opinion, the probability of Torino's victory is an order of magnitude higher than what the bookmakers think. The difference is 4.14%. The coefficient for the team's victory is 2, while in reality, it should be 1.85.

Comparison with bookmakers odds

Home Win

Draw

Away Win

Bookmakers

2

3.56

4.58

Our calculation

1.85

3.56

5.59

The mathematical analysis of the betting odds for this match did not reveal any significant inaccuracies. We cannot confidently recommend using our forecast for bets on this match, as the potential profit will be minimal.

Home Win

2

Our prediction statistics

2025 February

QUANTITY 2259

ROI +13.41%

EARNINGS +$30296

2025 March

QUANTITY 1621

ROI +9.89%

EARNINGS +$16035

Previous week

QUANTITY 615

ROI +14.77%

EARNINGS +$9083

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