Port Bangkok vs Bangkok United prediction

Port Bangkok

Match start date: Mar 16, 2025

VS

Tournament: Thailand. League 1

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Bangkok United

Our app uses a special algorithm to predict the outcome of the match between Port Bangkok and Bangkok United. This algorithm is designed to detect any inaccuracies in the bookmakers' odds by analyzing a vast amount of input data.

Port Bangkok

For Port Bangkok, we analyze their last 8 matches, taking into account various factors such as the quality of their performance, the match results, the location of the match (whether it was played at home or away), and the strength of their opponents. To determine the strength of the opponents, we look at the results of their previous matches. For each game, we will give the team Port Bangkok conditional points, which later will be used to determine the favorite.

09/03

Away

34 Muang Thong United

2:1

+81

01/03

Home

24 Nakhon Ratchasima Korat

4:2

+54

09/02

Away

38 BG Pathum United

0:1

+36

02/02

Away

51 Buriram United

1:0

+96

24/01

Home

38 Ratchaburi Dragons

3:3

+26

20/01

Away

31 Sukhothai

2:3

+29

15/01

Home

12 Khon Kaen United

1:2

+6

12/01

Away

24 Chiangrai United

0:1

+19

Bangkok United

Similarly, for Bangkok United, we analyze their last 8 matches using the same approach.

08/03

Home

24 Chiangrai United

3:2

+36

02/03

Away

31 Sukhothai

3:1

+128

23/02

Home

22 Nong Bua Pitchaya

1:0

+30

07/02

Home

23 Rayong FC

2:2

+18

02/02

Home

24 Nakhon Ratchasima Korat

2:1

+29

25/01

Away

29 Lamphun Warriors

1:0

+57

20/01

Home

20 Nakhon Pathom United

1:1

+15

16/01

Away

29 Uthai Thani

2:0

+83

Identifying the favourite

After analyzing both teams' last 8 matches, we've assigned 348 points to the home team and 395 points to the away team. This suggests that one team has an advantage over the other. However, it's important to consider that the home team (Port Bangkok) is playing on their own turf, which may slightly improve their chances of winning.

Accumulated points

Port Bangkok 348
Bangkok United 395

To determine what percentage of victories each team achieves at home and away, we've compiled statistics from several recent years to eliminate any chance-related factors. It turns out that 58.07% of victories for the team Port Bangkok occurred in home matches. For the team Bangkok United this indicator is 57.9%. On average, this equates to 57.98%, suggesting a slight advantage for Port Bangkok all other things being equal.

Percentage of home wins by teams

Port Bangkok

Port Bangkok 58.07%

Bangkok United

Bangkok United 57.9%

Average

Average 57.98%

Now, to determine the favorite of the match, we will take 57.98% of the home team's points and 42.02% of the away team's points. It turns out that the favorite of the match is Port Bangkok with an advantage of 202 points against 166. If we convert it to a percentage ratio, it will be 54.9% to 45.1%.

Points earned with home win percentage

Port Bangkok 202
Bangkok United 166

Bookmakers odds and probability

Now let's see who the bookmakers consider the favorite and compare their data with our calculations. The bookmakers estimate the probability of a draw in this match at 25.19% with a coefficient of 3.97. The coefficient for the home team's victory is 3.17, and for the away team's victory it is 2.31. If we exclude the draw, the probability of the home team's victory will be 42.11%, and the away team's victory - 57.9%. This differs from our calculations.

Comparison of calculated data with bookmakers

Bookmakers

Port Bangkok 42.11%
Bangkok United 57.9%

Our calculation

Port Bangkok 54.9%
Bangkok United 45.1%

Match prediction

As a result of the analysis conducted, an inaccuracy was found in the bookmaker's line. In our opinion, the probability of Port Bangkok's victory is an order of magnitude higher than what the bookmakers think. The difference is 11.61%. The coefficient for the team's victory is 3.17, while in reality, it should be 2.43.

Comparison with bookmakers odds

Home Win

Draw

Away Win

Bookmakers

3.17

3.97

2.31

Our calculation

2.43

3.97

2.96

We suggest using our prediction. But we do not guarantee that the bet will definitely win. Our strategy is designed to generate profits over the long term.

Home Win

3.17

Our prediction statistics

2025 February

QUANTITY 2259

ROI +13.41%

EARNINGS +$30296

2025 March

QUANTITY 1479

ROI +9.05%

EARNINGS +$13379

Previous week

QUANTITY 609

ROI +11.65%

EARNINGS +$7095

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