For Plaza Colonia, we analyze their last 8 matches, taking into account various factors such as the quality of their performance, the match results, the location of the match (whether it was played at home or away), and the strength of their opponents. To determine the strength of the opponents, we look at the results of their previous matches. For each game, we will give the team Plaza Colonia conditional points, which later will be used to determine the favorite.
20/07
Away
25 Cerrito
1:0
+50
13/07
Home
36 Juventud de Las Piedras
1:1
+36
09/07
Away
43 Torque
1:0
+75
05/07
Home
31 Albion
0:2
+4
24/06
Away
28 Colon
1:2
+21
15/06
Home
24 Sud America
2:0
+57
10/06
Away
25 La Luz
1:2
+17
06/06
Home
30 Uruguay Montevideo
0:1
+20
Similarly, for Oriental La Paz, we analyze their last 8 matches using the same approach.
21/07
Home
19 Atenas
5:0
+115
13/07
Home
25 Cerrito
2:1
+42
10/07
Away
36 Juventud de Las Piedras
1:1
+43
06/07
Home
43 Torque
0:2
+6
24/06
Away
31 Albion
1:1
+32
17/06
Home
28 Colon
0:4
+1
10/06
Away
24 Sud America
1:1
+23
05/06
Home
25 La Luz
1:0
+35
After analyzing both teams' last 8 matches, we've assigned 279 points to the home team and 298 points to the away team. This suggests that one team has an advantage over the other. However, it's important to consider that the home team (Plaza Colonia) is playing on their own turf, which may slightly improve their chances of winning.
Accumulated points
To determine what percentage of victories each team achieves at home and away, we've compiled statistics from several recent years to eliminate any chance-related factors. It turns out that 50% of victories for the team Plaza Colonia occurred in home matches. For the team Oriental La Paz this indicator is 56.45%. On average, this equates to 53.23%, suggesting a slight advantage for Plaza Colonia all other things being equal.
Percentage of home wins by teams
Plaza Colonia
Plaza Colonia 50%
Oriental La Paz
Oriental La Paz 56.45%
Average
Average 53.23%
Now, to determine the favorite of the match, we will take 53.23% of the home team's points and 46.77% of the away team's points. It turns out that the favorite of the match is Plaza Colonia with an advantage of 148 points against 139. If we convert it to a percentage ratio, it will be 51.61% to 48.39%.
Points earned with home win percentage
Now let's see who the bookmakers consider the favorite and compare their data with our calculations. The bookmakers estimate the probability of a draw in this match at 28.25% with a coefficient of 3.54. The coefficient for the home team's victory is 2.27, and for the away team's victory it is 3.61. If we exclude the draw, the probability of the home team's victory will be 61.39%, and the away team's victory - 38.61%. This differs from our calculations.
Comparison of calculated data with bookmakers
Bookmakers
Our calculation
As a result of the analysis conducted, an inaccuracy was found in the bookmaker's line. In our opinion, the probability of Oriental La Paz's victory is an order of magnitude higher than what the bookmakers think. The difference is 9.53%. The coefficient for the team's victory is 3.61, while in reality, it should be 2.88.
Comparison with bookmakers odds
Home Win
Draw
Away Win
Bookmakers
2.27
3.54
3.61
Our calculation
2.7
3.54
2.88
We suggest using our prediction. But we do not guarantee that the bet will definitely win. Our strategy is designed to generate profits over the long term.
Away Win
3.61
2024 June
QUANTITY 1383
ROI +10.03%
EARNINGS +$13868
2024 July
QUANTITY 1211
ROI +7.75%
EARNINGS +$9384
15 July 2024 - 21 July 2024
QUANTITY 280
ROI +14.85%
EARNINGS +$4158
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Uruguay. Primera Division
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