For Perth Glory U-21, we analyze their last 8 matches, taking into account various factors such as the quality of their performance, the match results, the location of the match (whether it was played at home or away), and the strength of their opponents. To determine the strength of the opponents, we look at the results of their previous matches. For each game, we will give the team Perth Glory U-21 conditional points, which later will be used to determine the favorite.
20/07
Home
34 Bayswater City
1:6
+2
13/07
Home
50 Olympic Kingsway
1:6
+2
06/07
Away
32 Armadale
3:6
+3
29/06
Home
22 Balcatta
3:4
+17
22/06
Away
34 Floreat Athena
1:0
+58
15/06
Home
13 Inglewood United
1:6
+1
08/06
Home
21 Perth
3:3
+14
01/06
Home
24 Western Knights
2:5
+1
Similarly, for Fremantle City, we analyze their last 8 matches using the same approach.
20/07
Home
46 Perth RedStar
1:1
+48
13/07
Home
37 Stirling Macedonia
2:2
+36
06/07
Away
34 Bayswater City
0:1
+35
29/06
Home
50 Olympic Kingsway
4:2
+124
22/06
Away
32 Armadale
1:3
+5
15/06
Home
22 Balcatta
0:1
+15
08/06
Away
34 Floreat Athena
2:1
+54
01/06
Away
13 Inglewood United
3:0
+52
After analyzing both teams' last 8 matches, we've assigned 98 points to the home team and 368 points to the away team. This suggests that one team has an advantage over the other. However, it's important to consider that the home team (Perth Glory U-21) is playing on their own turf, which may slightly improve their chances of winning.
Accumulated points
To determine what percentage of victories each team achieves at home and away, we've compiled statistics from several recent years to eliminate any chance-related factors. It turns out that 53.85% of victories for the team Perth Glory U-21 occurred in home matches. For the team Fremantle City this indicator is 61.43%. On average, this equates to 57.64%, suggesting a slight advantage for Perth Glory U-21 all other things being equal.
Percentage of home wins by teams
Perth Glory U-21
Perth Glory U-21 53.85%
Fremantle City
Fremantle City 61.43%
Average
Average 57.64%
Now, to determine the favorite of the match, we will take 57.64% of the home team's points and 42.36% of the away team's points. It turns out that the favorite of the match is Fremantle City with an advantage of 156 points against 57. If we convert it to a percentage ratio, it will be 73.36% to 26.64%.
Points earned with home win percentage
Now let's see who the bookmakers consider the favorite and compare their data with our calculations. The bookmakers estimate the probability of a draw in this match at 21.79% with a coefficient of 4.59. The coefficient for the home team's victory is 3.26, and for the away team's victory it is 2.1. If we exclude the draw, the probability of the home team's victory will be 39.18%, and the away team's victory - 60.83%. This differs from our calculations.
Comparison of calculated data with bookmakers
Bookmakers
Our calculation
As a result of the analysis conducted, an inaccuracy was found in the bookmaker's line. In our opinion, the probability of Fremantle City's victory is an order of magnitude higher than what the bookmakers think. The difference is 11.24%. The coefficient for the team's victory is 2.1, while in reality, it should be 1.74.
Comparison with bookmakers odds
Home Win
Draw
Away Win
Bookmakers
3.26
4.59
2.1
Our calculation
4.8
4.59
1.74
We suggest using our prediction. But we do not guarantee that the bet will definitely win. Our strategy is designed to generate profits over the long term.
Away Win
2.1
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