For Newell's Old Boys Reserves, we analyze their last 8 matches, taking into account various factors such as the quality of their performance, the match results, the location of the match (whether it was played at home or away), and the strength of their opponents. To determine the strength of the opponents, we look at the results of their previous matches. For each game, we will give the team Newell's Old Boys Reserves conditional points, which later will be used to determine the favorite.
22/05
Away
29 Huracan Reserves
0:0
+33
14/05
Home
26 Independiente Avellaneda Reserves
0:3
+2
10/05
Away
29 Tigre Reserves
0:2
+5
25/04
Home
42 Estudiantes de La Plata Reserves
2:0
+101
18/04
Away
11 Sarmiento Junin Reserves
2:1
+19
10/04
Away
34 Talleres de Cordoba Reserves
1:1
+32
03/04
Home
38 Rosario Central Reserves
0:2
+4
28/03
Home
41 Lanus Reserves
1:3
+5
Similarly, for Boca Juniors Reserves, we analyze their last 8 matches using the same approach.
22/05
Home
34 Talleres de Cordoba Reserves
1:0
+58
16/05
Away
41 Lanus Reserves
0:1
+40
10/05
Home
37 Defensa y Justicia Reserves
0:1
+24
02/05
Away
29 Huracan Reserves
5:1
+166
23/04
Away
34 Godoy Cruz Reserves
0:1
+33
18/04
Home
12 Atletico Platense Reserves
2:1
+16
12/04
Away
21 Central Cordoba Reserves
2:2
+24
05/04
Away
46 River Plate Reserves
1:4
+3
After analyzing both teams' last 8 matches, we've assigned 201 points to the home team and 363 points to the away team. This suggests that one team has an advantage over the other. However, it's important to consider that the home team (Newell's Old Boys Reserves) is playing on their own turf, which may slightly improve their chances of winning.
Accumulated points
To determine what percentage of victories each team achieves at home and away, we've compiled statistics from several recent years to eliminate any chance-related factors. It turns out that 52.73% of victories for the team Newell's Old Boys Reserves occurred in home matches. For the team Boca Juniors Reserves this indicator is 61.4%. On average, this equates to 57.07%, suggesting a slight advantage for Newell's Old Boys Reserves all other things being equal.
Percentage of home wins by teams
Newell's Old Boys Reserves
Newell's Old Boys Reserves 52.73%
Boca Juniors Reserves
Boca Juniors Reserves 61.4%
Average
Average 57.07%
Now, to determine the favorite of the match, we will take 57.07% of the home team's points and 42.93% of the away team's points. It turns out that the favorite of the match is Boca Juniors Reserves with an advantage of 156 points against 115. If we convert it to a percentage ratio, it will be 57.59% to 42.41%.
Points earned with home win percentage
Now let's see who the bookmakers consider the favorite and compare their data with our calculations. The bookmakers estimate the probability of a draw in this match at 31.55% with a coefficient of 3.17. The coefficient for the home team's victory is 2.93, and for the away team's victory it is 2.91. If we exclude the draw, the probability of the home team's victory will be 49.81%, and the away team's victory - 50.19%. This differs from our calculations.
Comparison of calculated data with bookmakers
Bookmakers
Our calculation
As a result of the analysis conducted, an inaccuracy was found in the bookmaker's line. In our opinion, the probability of Boca Juniors Reserves's victory is an order of magnitude higher than what the bookmakers think. The difference is 7.4%. The coefficient for the team's victory is 2.91, while in reality, it should be 2.54.
Comparison with bookmakers odds
Home Win
Draw
Away Win
Bookmakers
2.93
3.17
2.91
Our calculation
3.44
3.17
2.54
We suggest using our prediction. But we do not guarantee that the bet will definitely win. Our strategy is designed to generate profits over the long term.
Away Win
2.91
2024 April
QUANTITY 2867
ROI +7.39%
EARNINGS +$21176
20 May 2024 - 26 May 2024
QUANTITY 564
ROI +4.61%
EARNINGS +$2602
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