For Navbahor, we analyze their last 8 matches, taking into account various factors such as the quality of their performance, the match results, the location of the match (whether it was played at home or away), and the strength of their opponents. To determine the strength of the opponents, we look at the results of their previous matches. For each game, we will give the team Navbahor conditional points, which later will be used to determine the favorite.
24/05
Away
15 Metallurg Bekabad
1:1
+20
19/05
Home
35 Neftchi Fergana
1:0
+56
12/05
Away
33 Sogdiana Jizzakh
2:1
+66
05/05
Home
22 Lokomotiv Tashkent
4:0
+89
31/03
Home
22 Surkhon
2:2
+17
17/03
Away
15 Bunyodkor
2:2
+15
09/03
Home
34 AGMK
1:1
+26
01/03
Home
19 Dinamo Samarqand
3:1
+34
Similarly, for Olympic, we analyze their last 8 matches using the same approach.
24/05
Home
33 Andijan
0:0
+32
18/05
Away
24 Qizilqum
4:2
+90
11/05
Home
32 Pakhtakor
1:2
+27
31/03
Home
35 Neftchi Fergana
1:0
+52
15/03
Away
33 Sogdiana Jizzakh
2:2
+36
09/03
Home
22 Lokomotiv Tashkent
0:1
+13
01/03
Away
42 Nasaf
0:2
+6
01/12
Away
15 Metallurg Bekabad
1:2
+11
After analyzing both teams' last 8 matches, we've assigned 323 points to the home team and 266 points to the away team. This suggests that one team has an advantage over the other. However, it's important to consider that the home team (Navbahor) is playing on their own turf, which may slightly improve their chances of winning.
Accumulated points
To determine what percentage of victories each team achieves at home and away, we've compiled statistics from several recent years to eliminate any chance-related factors. It turns out that 60% of victories for the team Navbahor occurred in home matches. For the team Olympic this indicator is 55.74%. On average, this equates to 57.87%, suggesting a slight advantage for Navbahor all other things being equal.
Percentage of home wins by teams
Navbahor
Navbahor 60%
Olympic
Olympic 55.74%
Average
Average 57.87%
Now, to determine the favorite of the match, we will take 57.87% of the home team's points and 42.13% of the away team's points. It turns out that the favorite of the match is Navbahor with an advantage of 187 points against 112. If we convert it to a percentage ratio, it will be 62.55% to 37.45%.
Points earned with home win percentage
Now let's see who the bookmakers consider the favorite and compare their data with our calculations. The bookmakers estimate the probability of a draw in this match at 21.01% with a coefficient of 4.76. The coefficient for the home team's victory is 1.47, and for the away team's victory it is 9.07. If we exclude the draw, the probability of the home team's victory will be 86.04%, and the away team's victory - 13.96%. This differs from our calculations.
Comparison of calculated data with bookmakers
Bookmakers
Our calculation
As a result of the analysis conducted, an inaccuracy was found in the bookmaker's line. In our opinion, the probability of Olympic's victory is an order of magnitude higher than what the bookmakers think. The difference is 22.1%. The coefficient for the team's victory is 9.07, while in reality, it should be 3.38.
Comparison with bookmakers odds
Home Win
Draw
Away Win
Bookmakers
1.47
4.76
9.07
Our calculation
2.02
4.76
3.38
Our mathematical algorithm has detected significant inaccuracies in the bookmakers' odds for this match. Such a large difference can only mean that we have not taken into account some important factor that allows the bookmakers to set such odds. We cannot confidently recommend using our prediction for betting on this match, as the potential profit will be minimal.
Away Win
9.07
2024 April
QUANTITY 2867
ROI +7.39%
EARNINGS +$21176
Uzbekistan. Superligasi
QUANTITY 122
ROI +34.61%
EARNINGS +$4222
20 May 2024 - 26 May 2024
QUANTITY 564
ROI +4.61%
EARNINGS +$2602
Japan. J League. Division 1
China PR. Super League
2024 © betzax.com