Navbahor vs Olympic prediction

Navbahor

Match start date: May 30, 2024

VS

Tournament: Uzbekistan. Superligasi

Place a bet

Olympic

Our app uses a special algorithm to predict the outcome of the match between Navbahor and Olympic. This algorithm is designed to detect any inaccuracies in the bookmakers' odds by analyzing a vast amount of input data.

Navbahor

For Navbahor, we analyze their last 8 matches, taking into account various factors such as the quality of their performance, the match results, the location of the match (whether it was played at home or away), and the strength of their opponents. To determine the strength of the opponents, we look at the results of their previous matches. For each game, we will give the team Navbahor conditional points, which later will be used to determine the favorite.

24/05

Away

15 Metallurg Bekabad

1:1

+20

19/05

Home

35 Neftchi Fergana

1:0

+56

12/05

Away

33 Sogdiana Jizzakh

2:1

+66

05/05

Home

22 Lokomotiv Tashkent

4:0

+89

31/03

Home

22 Surkhon

2:2

+17

17/03

Away

15 Bunyodkor

2:2

+15

09/03

Home

34 AGMK

1:1

+26

01/03

Home

19 Dinamo Samarqand

3:1

+34

Olympic

Similarly, for Olympic, we analyze their last 8 matches using the same approach.

24/05

Home

33 Andijan

0:0

+32

18/05

Away

24 Qizilqum

4:2

+90

11/05

Home

32 Pakhtakor

1:2

+27

31/03

Home

35 Neftchi Fergana

1:0

+52

15/03

Away

33 Sogdiana Jizzakh

2:2

+36

09/03

Home

22 Lokomotiv Tashkent

0:1

+13

01/03

Away

42 Nasaf

0:2

+6

01/12

Away

15 Metallurg Bekabad

1:2

+11

Identifying the favourite

After analyzing both teams' last 8 matches, we've assigned 323 points to the home team and 266 points to the away team. This suggests that one team has an advantage over the other. However, it's important to consider that the home team (Navbahor) is playing on their own turf, which may slightly improve their chances of winning.

Accumulated points

Navbahor 323
Olympic 266

To determine what percentage of victories each team achieves at home and away, we've compiled statistics from several recent years to eliminate any chance-related factors. It turns out that 60% of victories for the team Navbahor occurred in home matches. For the team Olympic this indicator is 55.74%. On average, this equates to 57.87%, suggesting a slight advantage for Navbahor all other things being equal.

Percentage of home wins by teams

Navbahor

Navbahor 60%

Olympic

Olympic 55.74%

Average

Average 57.87%

Now, to determine the favorite of the match, we will take 57.87% of the home team's points and 42.13% of the away team's points. It turns out that the favorite of the match is Navbahor with an advantage of 187 points against 112. If we convert it to a percentage ratio, it will be 62.55% to 37.45%.

Points earned with home win percentage

Navbahor 187
Olympic 112

Bookmakers odds and probability

Now let's see who the bookmakers consider the favorite and compare their data with our calculations. The bookmakers estimate the probability of a draw in this match at 21.01% with a coefficient of 4.76. The coefficient for the home team's victory is 1.47, and for the away team's victory it is 9.07. If we exclude the draw, the probability of the home team's victory will be 86.04%, and the away team's victory - 13.96%. This differs from our calculations.

Comparison of calculated data with bookmakers

Bookmakers

Navbahor 86.04%
Olympic 13.96%

Our calculation

Navbahor 62.55%
Olympic 37.45%

Match prediction

As a result of the analysis conducted, an inaccuracy was found in the bookmaker's line. In our opinion, the probability of Olympic's victory is an order of magnitude higher than what the bookmakers think. The difference is 22.1%. The coefficient for the team's victory is 9.07, while in reality, it should be 3.38.

Comparison with bookmakers odds

Home Win

Draw

Away Win

Bookmakers

1.47

4.76

9.07

Our calculation

2.02

4.76

3.38

Our mathematical algorithm has detected significant inaccuracies in the bookmakers' odds for this match. Such a large difference can only mean that we have not taken into account some important factor that allows the bookmakers to set such odds. We cannot confidently recommend using our prediction for betting on this match, as the potential profit will be minimal.

Away Win

9.07

Our prediction statistics

2024 April

QUANTITY 2867

ROI +7.39%

EARNINGS +$21176

20 May 2024 - 26 May 2024

QUANTITY 564

ROI +4.61%

EARNINGS +$2602

Uzbekistan. Superligasi

QUANTITY 84

ROI +27.63%

EARNINGS +$2321

Current football predictions

USA. MLS

16/06

Charlotte FC - D.C. United

TOP

Home Win

2.28

16/06

New York Red Bulls - Nashville

TOP

Away Win

4.85

16/06

Montreal - Real Salt Lake

Home Win

3.44

16/06

New England Revolution - Vancouver Whitecaps

TOP

Home Win

2.46

16/06

Colorado Rapids - Austin FC

Away Win

5.75

16/06

Los Angeles Galaxy - Sporting Kansas City

Away Win

5.33

Japan. J League. Division 1

16/06

Vissel Kobe - Kawasaki Frontale

Away Win

4.37

16/06

Avispa Fukuoka - Sagan Tosu

TOP

Away Win

3.92

Japan. J League. Division 2

16/06

Iwaki - Ventforet Kofu

Away Win

3.39

16/06

Mito HollyHock - Blaublitz Akita

Away Win

3.04