For Manly United, we analyze their last 8 matches, taking into account various factors such as the quality of their performance, the match results, the location of the match (whether it was played at home or away), and the strength of their opponents. To determine the strength of the opponents, we look at the results of their previous matches. For each game, we will give the team Manly United conditional points, which later will be used to determine the favorite.
25/05
Away
28 St George Saints
1:1
+40
18/05
Home
28 Wollongong Wolves
2:1
+40
10/05
Home
39 Sydney United
1:1
+36
04/05
Away
35 St George City FA
1:3
+6
26/04
Home
20 Spirit
3:2
+26
20/04
Away
14 Sutherland Sharks
2:1
+24
13/04
Away
45 Marconi Stallions
1:2
+36
07/04
Home
48 Western Sydney Wanderers U-21
0:5
+2
Similarly, for Sydney FC U-21, we analyze their last 8 matches using the same approach.
24/05
Home
20 Spirit
1:3
+2
17/05
Home
26 Sydney Olympic
1:3
+4
12/05
Away
51 Rockdale Ilinden
1:3
+9
05/05
Home
50 APIA Tigers
1:7
+2
01/05
Home
35 St George City FA
1:3
+4
26/04
Home
39 Sydney United
0:2
+4
21/04
Away
28 Wollongong Wolves
2:3
+22
12/04
Home
14 Sutherland Sharks
0:0
+9
After analyzing both teams' last 8 matches, we've assigned 210 points to the home team and 57 points to the away team. This suggests that one team has an advantage over the other. However, it's important to consider that the home team (Manly United) is playing on their own turf, which may slightly improve their chances of winning.
Accumulated points
To determine what percentage of victories each team achieves at home and away, we've compiled statistics from several recent years to eliminate any chance-related factors. It turns out that 64.91% of victories for the team Manly United occurred in home matches. For the team Sydney FC U-21 this indicator is 62.9%. On average, this equates to 63.91%, suggesting a slight advantage for Manly United all other things being equal.
Percentage of home wins by teams
Manly United
Manly United 64.91%
Sydney FC U-21
Sydney FC U-21 62.9%
Average
Average 63.91%
Now, to determine the favorite of the match, we will take 63.91% of the home team's points and 36.09% of the away team's points. It turns out that the favorite of the match is Manly United with an advantage of 134 points against 21. If we convert it to a percentage ratio, it will be 86.61% to 13.39%.
Points earned with home win percentage
Now let's see who the bookmakers consider the favorite and compare their data with our calculations. The bookmakers estimate the probability of a draw in this match at 22.08% with a coefficient of 4.53. The coefficient for the home team's victory is 1.85, and for the away team's victory it is 4.2. If we exclude the draw, the probability of the home team's victory will be 69.47%, and the away team's victory - 30.53%. This differs from our calculations.
Comparison of calculated data with bookmakers
Bookmakers
Our calculation
As a result of the analysis conducted, an inaccuracy was found in the bookmaker's line. In our opinion, the probability of Manly United's victory is an order of magnitude higher than what the bookmakers think. The difference is 14.07%. The coefficient for the team's victory is 1.85, while in reality, it should be 1.48.
Comparison with bookmakers odds
Home Win
Draw
Away Win
Bookmakers
1.85
4.53
4.2
Our calculation
1.48
4.53
9.59
We suggest using our prediction. But we do not guarantee that the bet will definitely win. Our strategy is designed to generate profits over the long term.
Home Win
1.85
2024 April
QUANTITY 2867
ROI +7.39%
EARNINGS +$21176
Australia. National Premier League. New South Wales
QUANTITY 172
ROI +45.74%
EARNINGS +$7867
20 May 2024 - 26 May 2024
QUANTITY 564
ROI +4.61%
EARNINGS +$2602
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