Manly United vs Sydney FC U-21 prediction

Manly United

Match start date: May 31, 2024

VS

Tournament: Australia. National Premier League. New South Wales

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Sydney FC U-21

Our app uses a special algorithm to predict the outcome of the match between Manly United and Sydney FC U-21. This algorithm is designed to detect any inaccuracies in the bookmakers' odds by analyzing a vast amount of input data.

Manly United

For Manly United, we analyze their last 8 matches, taking into account various factors such as the quality of their performance, the match results, the location of the match (whether it was played at home or away), and the strength of their opponents. To determine the strength of the opponents, we look at the results of their previous matches. For each game, we will give the team Manly United conditional points, which later will be used to determine the favorite.

25/05

Away

28 St George Saints

1:1

+40

18/05

Home

28 Wollongong Wolves

2:1

+40

10/05

Home

39 Sydney United

1:1

+36

04/05

Away

35 St George City FA

1:3

+6

26/04

Home

20 Spirit

3:2

+26

20/04

Away

14 Sutherland Sharks

2:1

+24

13/04

Away

45 Marconi Stallions

1:2

+36

07/04

Home

48 Western Sydney Wanderers U-21

0:5

+2

Sydney FC U-21

Similarly, for Sydney FC U-21, we analyze their last 8 matches using the same approach.

24/05

Home

20 Spirit

1:3

+2

17/05

Home

26 Sydney Olympic

1:3

+4

12/05

Away

51 Rockdale Ilinden

1:3

+9

05/05

Home

50 APIA Tigers

1:7

+2

01/05

Home

35 St George City FA

1:3

+4

26/04

Home

39 Sydney United

0:2

+4

21/04

Away

28 Wollongong Wolves

2:3

+22

12/04

Home

14 Sutherland Sharks

0:0

+9

Identifying the favourite

After analyzing both teams' last 8 matches, we've assigned 210 points to the home team and 57 points to the away team. This suggests that one team has an advantage over the other. However, it's important to consider that the home team (Manly United) is playing on their own turf, which may slightly improve their chances of winning.

Accumulated points

Manly United 210
Sydney FC U-21 57

To determine what percentage of victories each team achieves at home and away, we've compiled statistics from several recent years to eliminate any chance-related factors. It turns out that 64.91% of victories for the team Manly United occurred in home matches. For the team Sydney FC U-21 this indicator is 62.9%. On average, this equates to 63.91%, suggesting a slight advantage for Manly United all other things being equal.

Percentage of home wins by teams

Manly United

Manly United 64.91%

Sydney FC U-21

Sydney FC U-21 62.9%

Average

Average 63.91%

Now, to determine the favorite of the match, we will take 63.91% of the home team's points and 36.09% of the away team's points. It turns out that the favorite of the match is Manly United with an advantage of 134 points against 21. If we convert it to a percentage ratio, it will be 86.61% to 13.39%.

Points earned with home win percentage

Manly United 134
Sydney FC U-21 21

Bookmakers odds and probability

Now let's see who the bookmakers consider the favorite and compare their data with our calculations. The bookmakers estimate the probability of a draw in this match at 22.08% with a coefficient of 4.53. The coefficient for the home team's victory is 1.85, and for the away team's victory it is 4.2. If we exclude the draw, the probability of the home team's victory will be 69.47%, and the away team's victory - 30.53%. This differs from our calculations.

Comparison of calculated data with bookmakers

Bookmakers

Manly United 69.47%
Sydney FC U-21 30.53%

Our calculation

Manly United 86.61%
Sydney FC U-21 13.39%

Match prediction

As a result of the analysis conducted, an inaccuracy was found in the bookmaker's line. In our opinion, the probability of Manly United's victory is an order of magnitude higher than what the bookmakers think. The difference is 14.07%. The coefficient for the team's victory is 1.85, while in reality, it should be 1.48.

Comparison with bookmakers odds

Home Win

Draw

Away Win

Bookmakers

1.85

4.53

4.2

Our calculation

1.48

4.53

9.59

We suggest using our prediction. But we do not guarantee that the bet will definitely win. Our strategy is designed to generate profits over the long term.

Home Win

1.85

Our prediction statistics

2024 April

QUANTITY 2867

ROI +7.39%

EARNINGS +$21176

Australia. National Premier League. New South Wales

QUANTITY 83

ROI +37.54%

EARNINGS +$3116

20 May 2024 - 26 May 2024

QUANTITY 564

ROI +4.61%

EARNINGS +$2602

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