For Lens, we analyze their last 8 matches, taking into account various factors such as the quality of their performance, the match results, the location of the match (whether it was played at home or away), and the strength of their opponents. To determine the strength of the opponents, we look at the results of their previous matches. For each game, we will give the team Lens conditional points, which later will be used to determine the favorite.
08/03
Away
39 Marseille
1:0
+94
01/03
Home
16 Le Havre
3:4
+13
23/02
Away
18 Nantes
1:3
+3
16/02
Home
36 Strasbourg
0:2
+4
08/02
Away
41 Nice
0:2
+7
31/01
Away
12 Montpellier
2:0
+37
26/01
Home
27 Angers
1:0
+30
18/01
Home
57 Paris Saint-Germain
1:2
+32
Similarly, for Rennes, we analyze their last 8 matches using the same approach.
08/03
Home
57 Paris Saint-Germain
1:4
+5
02/03
Away
12 Montpellier
4:0
+79
21/02
Home
16 Reims
1:0
+25
16/02
Home
40 Lille
0:2
+4
08/02
Away
19 Saint-Etienne
2:0
+65
02/02
Home
36 Strasbourg
1:0
+44
25/01
Away
34 Monaco
2:3
+26
18/01
Home
32 Brest
1:2
+15
After analyzing both teams' last 8 matches, we've assigned 219 points to the home team and 263 points to the away team. This suggests that one team has an advantage over the other. However, it's important to consider that the home team (Lens) is playing on their own turf, which may slightly improve their chances of winning.
Accumulated points
To determine what percentage of victories each team achieves at home and away, we've compiled statistics from several recent years to eliminate any chance-related factors. It turns out that 58.18% of victories for the team Lens occurred in home matches. For the team Rennes this indicator is 60.61%. On average, this equates to 59.39%, suggesting a slight advantage for Lens all other things being equal.
Percentage of home wins by teams
Lens
Lens 58.18%
Rennes
Rennes 60.61%
Average
Average 59.39%
Now, to determine the favorite of the match, we will take 59.39% of the home team's points and 40.61% of the away team's points. It turns out that the favorite of the match is Lens with an advantage of 130 points against 107. If we convert it to a percentage ratio, it will be 54.91% to 45.09%.
Points earned with home win percentage
Now let's see who the bookmakers consider the favorite and compare their data with our calculations. The bookmakers estimate the probability of a draw in this match at 27.62% with a coefficient of 3.62. The coefficient for the home team's victory is 2.09, and for the away team's victory it is 4.08. If we exclude the draw, the probability of the home team's victory will be 66.1%, and the away team's victory - 33.9%. This differs from our calculations.
Comparison of calculated data with bookmakers
Bookmakers
Our calculation
As a result of the analysis conducted, an inaccuracy was found in the bookmaker's line. In our opinion, the probability of Rennes's victory is an order of magnitude higher than what the bookmakers think. The difference is 10.37%. The coefficient for the team's victory is 4.08, while in reality, it should be 3.06.
Comparison with bookmakers odds
Home Win
Draw
Away Win
Bookmakers
2.09
3.62
4.08
Our calculation
2.52
3.62
3.06
We suggest using our prediction. But we do not guarantee that the bet will definitely win. Our strategy is designed to generate profits over the long term.
Away Win
4.08
2025 February
QUANTITY 2259
ROI +13.41%
EARNINGS +$30296
2025 March
QUANTITY 1479
ROI +9.05%
EARNINGS +$13379
France. Ligue 1
QUANTITY 537
ROI +18.02%
EARNINGS +$9679
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