Lanus Reserves vs Central Cordoba Reserves prediction

Lanus Reserves

Match start date: May 30, 2024

VS

Tournament: Argentina. Primera Division Reserve

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Central Cordoba Reserves

Our app uses a special algorithm to predict the outcome of the match between Lanus Reserves and Central Cordoba Reserves. This algorithm is designed to detect any inaccuracies in the bookmakers' odds by analyzing a vast amount of input data.

Lanus Reserves

For Lanus Reserves, we analyze their last 8 matches, taking into account various factors such as the quality of their performance, the match results, the location of the match (whether it was played at home or away), and the strength of their opponents. To determine the strength of the opponents, we look at the results of their previous matches. For each game, we will give the team Lanus Reserves conditional points, which later will be used to determine the favorite.

23/05

Away

23 Union de Santa Fe Reserves

1:2

+25

16/05

Home

31 Boca Juniors Reserves

1:0

+50

08/05

Away

29 Huracan Reserves

1:0

+51

24/04

Home

26 Independiente Avellaneda Reserves

2:0

+73

18/04

Away

29 Tigre Reserves

2:3

+25

10/04

Home

42 Estudiantes de La Plata Reserves

2:2

+32

02/04

Home

38 Banfield Reserves

1:2

+23

28/03

Away

33 Newell's Old Boys Reserves

3:1

+85

Central Cordoba Reserves

Similarly, for Central Cordoba Reserves, we analyze their last 8 matches using the same approach.

24/05

Home

37 Defensa y Justicia Reserves

0:0

+31

14/05

Away

34 Godoy Cruz Reserves

0:2

+7

09/05

Home

12 Atletico Platense Reserves

0:1

+8

25/04

Home

11 Sarmiento Junin Reserves

1:0

+14

18/04

Away

23 Union de Santa Fe Reserves

1:1

+28

12/04

Home

31 Boca Juniors Reserves

2:2

+21

03/04

Away

20 Atletico Tucuman Reserves

0:0

+22

28/03

Away

29 Huracan Reserves

1:1

+27

Identifying the favourite

After analyzing both teams' last 8 matches, we've assigned 363 points to the home team and 157 points to the away team. This suggests that one team has an advantage over the other. However, it's important to consider that the home team (Lanus Reserves) is playing on their own turf, which may slightly improve their chances of winning.

Accumulated points

Lanus Reserves 363
Central Cordoba Reserves 157

To determine what percentage of victories each team achieves at home and away, we've compiled statistics from several recent years to eliminate any chance-related factors. It turns out that 52.86% of victories for the team Lanus Reserves occurred in home matches. For the team Central Cordoba Reserves this indicator is 62.5%. On average, this equates to 57.68%, suggesting a slight advantage for Lanus Reserves all other things being equal.

Percentage of home wins by teams

Lanus Reserves

Lanus Reserves 52.86%

Central Cordoba Reserves

Central Cordoba Reserves 62.5%

Average

Average 57.68%

Now, to determine the favorite of the match, we will take 57.68% of the home team's points and 42.32% of the away team's points. It turns out that the favorite of the match is Lanus Reserves with an advantage of 209 points against 67. If we convert it to a percentage ratio, it will be 75.89% to 24.11%.

Points earned with home win percentage

Lanus Reserves 209
Central Cordoba Reserves 67

Bookmakers odds and probability

Now let's see who the bookmakers consider the favorite and compare their data with our calculations. The bookmakers estimate the probability of a draw in this match at 25.84% with a coefficient of 3.87. The coefficient for the home team's victory is 1.78, and for the away team's victory it is 5.53. If we exclude the draw, the probability of the home team's victory will be 75.64%, and the away team's victory - 24.36%. This differs from our calculations.

Comparison of calculated data with bookmakers

Bookmakers

Lanus Reserves 75.64%
Central Cordoba Reserves 24.36%

Our calculation

Lanus Reserves 75.89%
Central Cordoba Reserves 24.11%

Match prediction

As a result of the analysis conducted, an inaccuracy was found in the bookmaker's line. In our opinion, the probability of Lanus Reserves's victory is an order of magnitude higher than what the bookmakers think. The difference is 0.25%. The coefficient for the team's victory is 1.78, while in reality, it should be 1.78.

Comparison with bookmakers odds

Home Win

Draw

Away Win

Bookmakers

1.78

3.87

5.53

Our calculation

1.78

3.87

5.59

The mathematical analysis of the betting odds for this match did not reveal any significant inaccuracies. We cannot confidently recommend using our forecast for bets on this match, as the potential profit will be minimal.

Home Win

1.78

Our prediction statistics

2024 April

QUANTITY 2867

ROI +7.39%

EARNINGS +$21176

20 May 2024 - 26 May 2024

QUANTITY 564

ROI +4.61%

EARNINGS +$2602

Argentina. Primera Division Reserve

QUANTITY 138

ROI +1.7%

EARNINGS +$235

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