For La Serena, we analyze their last 8 matches, taking into account various factors such as the quality of their performance, the match results, the location of the match (whether it was played at home or away), and the strength of their opponents. To determine the strength of the opponents, we look at the results of their previous matches. For each game, we will give the team La Serena conditional points, which later will be used to determine the favorite.
30/04
Away
47 Deportes Limache
0:1
+46
23/04
Home
32 Deportes Santa Cruz
2:1
+44
15/04
Away
38 San Luis
1:0
+76
06/04
Home
25 Universidad Concepcion
1:0
+37
31/03
Away
23 Curico Unido
0:0
+25
23/03
Home
35 Barnechea
0:0
+24
16/03
Away
30 Santiago Morning
4:2
+87
09/03
Home
25 Santiago Wanderers
1:2
+14
Similarly, for San Marcos de Arica, we analyze their last 8 matches using the same approach.
28/04
Home
35 Barnechea
1:4
+2
20/04
Away
37 Magallanes
2:0
+151
14/04
Home
41 Rangers Talca
0:1
+29
07/04
Away
29 Deportes Recoleta
2:1
+58
01/04
Home
32 Deportes Santa Cruz
3:4
+14
24/03
Away
32 Antofagasta
1:2
+32
17/03
Away
23 Curico Unido
0:1
+20
09/03
Home
30 Santiago Morning
2:0
+50
After analyzing both teams' last 8 matches, we've assigned 353 points to the home team and 356 points to the away team. This suggests that one team has an advantage over the other. However, it's important to consider that the home team (La Serena) is playing on their own turf, which may slightly improve their chances of winning.
Accumulated points
To determine what percentage of victories each team achieves at home and away, we've compiled statistics from several recent years to eliminate any chance-related factors. It turns out that 56.25% of victories for the team La Serena occurred in home matches. For the team San Marcos de Arica this indicator is 65%. On average, this equates to 60.63%, suggesting a slight advantage for La Serena all other things being equal.
Percentage of home wins by teams
La Serena
La Serena 56.25%
San Marcos de Arica
San Marcos de Arica 65%
Average
Average 60.63%
Now, to determine the favorite of the match, we will take 60.63% of the home team's points and 39.38% of the away team's points. It turns out that the favorite of the match is La Serena with an advantage of 214 points against 140. If we convert it to a percentage ratio, it will be 60.44% to 39.56%.
Points earned with home win percentage
Now let's see who the bookmakers consider the favorite and compare their data with our calculations. The bookmakers estimate the probability of a draw in this match at 26.18% with a coefficient of 3.82. The coefficient for the home team's victory is 1.97, and for the away team's victory it is 4.32. If we exclude the draw, the probability of the home team's victory will be 68.62%, and the away team's victory - 31.38%. This differs from our calculations.
Comparison of calculated data with bookmakers
Bookmakers
Our calculation
As a result of the analysis conducted, an inaccuracy was found in the bookmaker's line. In our opinion, the probability of San Marcos de Arica's victory is an order of magnitude higher than what the bookmakers think. The difference is 4.67%. The coefficient for the team's victory is 4.32, while in reality, it should be 3.42.
Comparison with bookmakers odds
Home Win
Draw
Away Win
Bookmakers
1.97
3.82
4.32
Our calculation
2.24
3.82
3.42
The mathematical analysis of the betting odds for this match did not reveal any significant inaccuracies. We cannot confidently recommend using our forecast for bets on this match, as the potential profit will be minimal.
Away Win
4.32
2024 April
QUANTITY 2867
ROI +7.39%
EARNINGS +$21176
29 April 2024 - 5 May 2024
QUANTITY 709
ROI +5.25%
EARNINGS +$3723
6 May 2024
QUANTITY 71
ROI +34.66%
EARNINGS +$2461
Italy. Serie A
2024 © betzax.com