Kalev Tallinn II vs FCI Levadia II prediction

Kalev Tallinn II

Match start date: May 30, 2024

VS

Tournament: Estonia. Esiliiga

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FCI Levadia II

Our app uses a special algorithm to predict the outcome of the match between Kalev Tallinn II and FCI Levadia II. This algorithm is designed to detect any inaccuracies in the bookmakers' odds by analyzing a vast amount of input data.

Kalev Tallinn II

For Kalev Tallinn II, we analyze their last 8 matches, taking into account various factors such as the quality of their performance, the match results, the location of the match (whether it was played at home or away), and the strength of their opponents. To determine the strength of the opponents, we look at the results of their previous matches. For each game, we will give the team Kalev Tallinn II conditional points, which later will be used to determine the favorite.

18/05

Home

18 Elva

4:0

+89

11/05

Away

41 FC Tallinn

2:3

+36

06/05

Away

35 FCI Levadia II

0:3

+3

28/04

Home

39 Tartu JK Welco Elekter

0:3

+3

21/04

Home

55 Harju JK Laagri

1:4

+4

14/04

Away

10 Tabasalu Charma

3:3

+10

08/04

Home

40 Flora II

1:3

+4

30/03

Away

18 Elva

2:2

+18

FCI Levadia II

Similarly, for FCI Levadia II, we analyze their last 8 matches using the same approach.

26/05

Home

39 Tartu JK Welco Elekter

2:2

+37

17/05

Away

55 Harju JK Laagri

2:4

+10

06/05

Home

18 Kalev Tallinn II

3:0

+83

27/04

Away

41 FC Tallinn

4:3

+73

21/04

Away

39 Tartu JK Welco Elekter

2:3

+34

15/04

Home

13 Paide Linnameeskond II

3:0

+57

07/04

Home

55 Harju JK Laagri

1:2

+33

30/03

Away

40 Flora II

1:3

+5

Identifying the favourite

After analyzing both teams' last 8 matches, we've assigned 167 points to the home team and 332 points to the away team. This suggests that one team has an advantage over the other. However, it's important to consider that the home team (Kalev Tallinn II) is playing on their own turf, which may slightly improve their chances of winning.

Accumulated points

Kalev Tallinn II 167
FCI Levadia II 332

To determine what percentage of victories each team achieves at home and away, we've compiled statistics from several recent years to eliminate any chance-related factors. It turns out that 55.17% of victories for the team Kalev Tallinn II occurred in home matches. For the team FCI Levadia II this indicator is 57.14%. On average, this equates to 56.16%, suggesting a slight advantage for Kalev Tallinn II all other things being equal.

Percentage of home wins by teams

Kalev Tallinn II

Kalev Tallinn II 55.17%

FCI Levadia II

FCI Levadia II 57.14%

Average

Average 56.16%

Now, to determine the favorite of the match, we will take 56.16% of the home team's points and 43.84% of the away team's points. It turns out that the favorite of the match is FCI Levadia II with an advantage of 146 points against 94. If we convert it to a percentage ratio, it will be 60.8% to 39.2%.

Points earned with home win percentage

Kalev Tallinn II 94
FCI Levadia II 146

Bookmakers odds and probability

Now let's see who the bookmakers consider the favorite and compare their data with our calculations. The bookmakers estimate the probability of a draw in this match at 15.97% with a coefficient of 6.26. The coefficient for the home team's victory is 7.75, and for the away team's victory it is 1.41. If we exclude the draw, the probability of the home team's victory will be 15.36%, and the away team's victory - 84.64%. This differs from our calculations.

Comparison of calculated data with bookmakers

Bookmakers

Kalev Tallinn II 15.36%
FCI Levadia II 84.64%

Our calculation

Kalev Tallinn II 39.2%
FCI Levadia II 60.8%

Match prediction

As a result of the analysis conducted, an inaccuracy was found in the bookmaker's line. In our opinion, the probability of Kalev Tallinn II's victory is an order of magnitude higher than what the bookmakers think. The difference is 22.31%. The coefficient for the team's victory is 7.75, while in reality, it should be 3.04.

Comparison with bookmakers odds

Home Win

Draw

Away Win

Bookmakers

7.75

6.26

1.41

Our calculation

3.04

6.26

1.96

Our mathematical algorithm has detected significant inaccuracies in the bookmakers' odds for this match. Such a large difference can only mean that we have not taken into account some important factor that allows the bookmakers to set such odds. We cannot confidently recommend using our prediction for betting on this match, as the potential profit will be minimal.

Home Win

7.75

Our prediction statistics

2024 April

QUANTITY 2867

ROI +7.39%

EARNINGS +$21176

20 May 2024 - 26 May 2024

QUANTITY 564

ROI +4.61%

EARNINGS +$2602

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