For Kalev Tallinn II, we analyze their last 8 matches, taking into account various factors such as the quality of their performance, the match results, the location of the match (whether it was played at home or away), and the strength of their opponents. To determine the strength of the opponents, we look at the results of their previous matches. For each game, we will give the team Kalev Tallinn II conditional points, which later will be used to determine the favorite.
18/05
Home
18 Elva
4:0
+89
11/05
Away
41 FC Tallinn
2:3
+36
06/05
Away
35 FCI Levadia II
0:3
+3
28/04
Home
39 Tartu JK Welco Elekter
0:3
+3
21/04
Home
55 Harju JK Laagri
1:4
+4
14/04
Away
10 Tabasalu Charma
3:3
+10
08/04
Home
40 Flora II
1:3
+4
30/03
Away
18 Elva
2:2
+18
Similarly, for FCI Levadia II, we analyze their last 8 matches using the same approach.
26/05
Home
39 Tartu JK Welco Elekter
2:2
+37
17/05
Away
55 Harju JK Laagri
2:4
+10
06/05
Home
18 Kalev Tallinn II
3:0
+83
27/04
Away
41 FC Tallinn
4:3
+73
21/04
Away
39 Tartu JK Welco Elekter
2:3
+34
15/04
Home
13 Paide Linnameeskond II
3:0
+57
07/04
Home
55 Harju JK Laagri
1:2
+33
30/03
Away
40 Flora II
1:3
+5
After analyzing both teams' last 8 matches, we've assigned 167 points to the home team and 332 points to the away team. This suggests that one team has an advantage over the other. However, it's important to consider that the home team (Kalev Tallinn II) is playing on their own turf, which may slightly improve their chances of winning.
Accumulated points
To determine what percentage of victories each team achieves at home and away, we've compiled statistics from several recent years to eliminate any chance-related factors. It turns out that 55.17% of victories for the team Kalev Tallinn II occurred in home matches. For the team FCI Levadia II this indicator is 57.14%. On average, this equates to 56.16%, suggesting a slight advantage for Kalev Tallinn II all other things being equal.
Percentage of home wins by teams
Kalev Tallinn II
Kalev Tallinn II 55.17%
FCI Levadia II
FCI Levadia II 57.14%
Average
Average 56.16%
Now, to determine the favorite of the match, we will take 56.16% of the home team's points and 43.84% of the away team's points. It turns out that the favorite of the match is FCI Levadia II with an advantage of 146 points against 94. If we convert it to a percentage ratio, it will be 60.8% to 39.2%.
Points earned with home win percentage
Now let's see who the bookmakers consider the favorite and compare their data with our calculations. The bookmakers estimate the probability of a draw in this match at 15.97% with a coefficient of 6.26. The coefficient for the home team's victory is 7.75, and for the away team's victory it is 1.41. If we exclude the draw, the probability of the home team's victory will be 15.36%, and the away team's victory - 84.64%. This differs from our calculations.
Comparison of calculated data with bookmakers
Bookmakers
Our calculation
As a result of the analysis conducted, an inaccuracy was found in the bookmaker's line. In our opinion, the probability of Kalev Tallinn II's victory is an order of magnitude higher than what the bookmakers think. The difference is 22.31%. The coefficient for the team's victory is 7.75, while in reality, it should be 3.04.
Comparison with bookmakers odds
Home Win
Draw
Away Win
Bookmakers
7.75
6.26
1.41
Our calculation
3.04
6.26
1.96
Our mathematical algorithm has detected significant inaccuracies in the bookmakers' odds for this match. Such a large difference can only mean that we have not taken into account some important factor that allows the bookmakers to set such odds. We cannot confidently recommend using our prediction for betting on this match, as the potential profit will be minimal.
Home Win
7.75
2024 April
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