Kagoshima United vs Fagiano Okayama prediction

Kagoshima United

Match start date: Nov 10, 2024

VS

Tournament: Japan. J League. Division 2

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Fagiano Okayama

Our app uses a special algorithm to predict the outcome of the match between Kagoshima United and Fagiano Okayama. This algorithm is designed to detect any inaccuracies in the bookmakers' odds by analyzing a vast amount of input data.

Kagoshima United

For Kagoshima United, we analyze their last 8 matches, taking into account various factors such as the quality of their performance, the match results, the location of the match (whether it was played at home or away), and the strength of their opponents. To determine the strength of the opponents, we look at the results of their previous matches. For each game, we will give the team Kagoshima United conditional points, which later will be used to determine the favorite.

03/11

Away

37 Tokushima Vortis

0:1

+36

27/10

Away

39 V-Varen Nagasaki

1:4

+4

19/10

Home

19 Ehime

4:0

+91

06/10

Away

46 Yokohama FC

0:1

+42

28/09

Home

27 Mito HollyHock

3:0

+104

22/09

Away

22 Tochigi

1:2

+19

15/09

Home

32 Roasso Kumamoto

0:2

+4

07/09

Home

26 Iwaki

1:3

+3

Fagiano Okayama

Similarly, for Fagiano Okayama, we analyze their last 8 matches using the same approach.

03/11

Home

26 Fujieda

2:0

+78

27/10

Away

46 Yokohama FC

4:2

+167

20/10

Home

26 Iwaki

2:1

+48

05/10

Away

22 Ventforet Kofu

1:3

+3

29/09

Home

39 V-Varen Nagasaki

1:0

+59

22/09

Away

27 Mito HollyHock

0:0

+27

14/09

Home

19 Ehime

3:0

+75

08/09

Home

30 Blaublitz Akita

0:1

+20

Identifying the favourite

After analyzing both teams' last 8 matches, we've assigned 303 points to the home team and 476 points to the away team. This suggests that one team has an advantage over the other. However, it's important to consider that the home team (Kagoshima United) is playing on their own turf, which may slightly improve their chances of winning.

Accumulated points

Kagoshima United 303
Fagiano Okayama 476

To determine what percentage of victories each team achieves at home and away, we've compiled statistics from several recent years to eliminate any chance-related factors. It turns out that 61.91% of victories for the team Kagoshima United occurred in home matches. For the team Fagiano Okayama this indicator is 55.1%. On average, this equates to 58.5%, suggesting a slight advantage for Kagoshima United all other things being equal.

Percentage of home wins by teams

Kagoshima United

Kagoshima United 61.91%

Fagiano Okayama

Fagiano Okayama 55.1%

Average

Average 58.5%

Now, to determine the favorite of the match, we will take 58.5% of the home team's points and 41.5% of the away team's points. It turns out that the favorite of the match is Fagiano Okayama with an advantage of 198 points against 177. If we convert it to a percentage ratio, it will be 52.69% to 47.31%.

Points earned with home win percentage

Kagoshima United 177
Fagiano Okayama 198

Bookmakers odds and probability

Now let's see who the bookmakers consider the favorite and compare their data with our calculations. The bookmakers estimate the probability of a draw in this match at 23.92% with a coefficient of 4.18. The coefficient for the home team's victory is 5.34, and for the away team's victory it is 1.74. If we exclude the draw, the probability of the home team's victory will be 24.62%, and the away team's victory - 75.39%. This differs from our calculations.

Comparison of calculated data with bookmakers

Bookmakers

Kagoshima United 24.62%
Fagiano Okayama 75.39%

Our calculation

Kagoshima United 47.31%
Fagiano Okayama 52.69%

Match prediction

As a result of the analysis conducted, an inaccuracy was found in the bookmaker's line. In our opinion, the probability of Kagoshima United's victory is an order of magnitude higher than what the bookmakers think. The difference is 18.5%. The coefficient for the team's victory is 5.34, while in reality, it should be 2.78.

Comparison with bookmakers odds

Home Win

Draw

Away Win

Bookmakers

5.34

4.18

1.74

Our calculation

2.78

4.18

2.49

Our mathematical algorithm has detected significant inaccuracies in the bookmakers' odds for this match. Such a large difference can only mean that we have not taken into account some important factor that allows the bookmakers to set such odds. We cannot confidently recommend using our prediction for betting on this match, as the potential profit will be minimal.

Home Win

5.34

Our prediction statistics

2024 October

QUANTITY 2852

ROI +7.78%

EARNINGS +$22186

9 November 2024

QUANTITY 367

ROI +6.56%

EARNINGS +$2406

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