Juarez vs Guadalajara prediction

Juarez

Match start date: Mar 16, 2025

VS

Tournament: Mexico. Primera Division

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Guadalajara

Our app uses a special algorithm to predict the outcome of the match between Juarez and Guadalajara. This algorithm is designed to detect any inaccuracies in the bookmakers' odds by analyzing a vast amount of input data.

Juarez

For Juarez, we analyze their last 8 matches, taking into account various factors such as the quality of their performance, the match results, the location of the match (whether it was played at home or away), and the strength of their opponents. To determine the strength of the opponents, we look at the results of their previous matches. For each game, we will give the team Juarez conditional points, which later will be used to determine the favorite.

08/03

Away

17 Atletico San Luis

0:1

+19

02/03

Home

33 Pachuca

2:2

+32

26/02

Away

42 Tigres

1:0

+96

23/02

Home

42 Toluca

0:4

+2

15/02

Away

14 Tijuana

2:1

+30

09/02

Home

32 Monterrey

2:1

+43

02/02

Away

48 America

0:4

+2

30/01

Home

14 Santos Laguna

1:0

+15

Guadalajara

Similarly, for Guadalajara, we analyze their last 8 matches using the same approach.

09/03

Home

48 America

0:0

+39

02/03

Away

27 UNAM

1:0

+66

27/02

Away

17 Atletico San Luis

1:3

+3

23/02

Home

33 Pachuca

2:1

+44

16/02

Away

42 Toluca

1:2

+43

10/02

Home

14 Tijuana

2:1

+14

02/02

Home

23 Queretaro

1:1

+17

29/01

Away

43 Leon

1:2

+36

Identifying the favourite

After analyzing both teams' last 8 matches, we've assigned 240 points to the home team and 262 points to the away team. This suggests that one team has an advantage over the other. However, it's important to consider that the home team (Juarez) is playing on their own turf, which may slightly improve their chances of winning.

Accumulated points

Juarez 240
Guadalajara 262

To determine what percentage of victories each team achieves at home and away, we've compiled statistics from several recent years to eliminate any chance-related factors. It turns out that 55.74% of victories for the team Juarez occurred in home matches. For the team Guadalajara this indicator is 66.67%. On average, this equates to 61.2%, suggesting a slight advantage for Juarez all other things being equal.

Percentage of home wins by teams

Juarez

Juarez 55.74%

Guadalajara

Guadalajara 66.67%

Average

Average 61.2%

Now, to determine the favorite of the match, we will take 61.2% of the home team's points and 38.8% of the away team's points. It turns out that the favorite of the match is Juarez with an advantage of 147 points against 102. If we convert it to a percentage ratio, it will be 59.15% to 40.85%.

Points earned with home win percentage

Juarez 147
Guadalajara 102

Bookmakers odds and probability

Now let's see who the bookmakers consider the favorite and compare their data with our calculations. The bookmakers estimate the probability of a draw in this match at 27.86% with a coefficient of 3.59. The coefficient for the home team's victory is 3.51, and for the away team's victory it is 2.29. If we exclude the draw, the probability of the home team's victory will be 39.48%, and the away team's victory - 60.52%. This differs from our calculations.

Comparison of calculated data with bookmakers

Bookmakers

Juarez 39.48%
Guadalajara 60.52%

Our calculation

Juarez 59.15%
Guadalajara 40.85%

Match prediction

As a result of the analysis conducted, an inaccuracy was found in the bookmaker's line. In our opinion, the probability of Juarez's victory is an order of magnitude higher than what the bookmakers think. The difference is 19.52%. The coefficient for the team's victory is 3.51, while in reality, it should be 2.34.

Comparison with bookmakers odds

Home Win

Draw

Away Win

Bookmakers

3.51

3.59

2.29

Our calculation

2.34

3.59

3.39

Our mathematical algorithm has detected significant inaccuracies in the bookmakers' odds for this match. Such a large difference can only mean that we have not taken into account some important factor that allows the bookmakers to set such odds. We cannot confidently recommend using our prediction for betting on this match, as the potential profit will be minimal.

Home Win

3.51

Our prediction statistics

2025 February

QUANTITY 2259

ROI +13.41%

EARNINGS +$30296

2025 March

QUANTITY 1475

ROI +9.14%

EARNINGS +$13487

Previous week

QUANTITY 609

ROI +11.65%

EARNINGS +$7095

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