For JIPPO, we analyze their last 8 matches, taking into account various factors such as the quality of their performance, the match results, the location of the match (whether it was played at home or away), and the strength of their opponents. To determine the strength of the opponents, we look at the results of their previous matches. For each game, we will give the team JIPPO conditional points, which later will be used to determine the favorite.
20/07
Away
22 PK-35
2:0
+85
17/07
Away
17 KaPa
4:1
+97
10/07
Home
24 JaPS
3:2
+35
06/07
Away
24 SJK Akatemia
2:1
+46
29/06
Away
44 Jaro
0:1
+40
19/06
Home
11 MP
0:0
+9
12/06
Away
49 KTP
1:2
+39
08/06
Away
41 TPS
0:2
+6
Similarly, for TPS, we analyze their last 8 matches using the same approach.
20/07
Home
24 JaPS
4:0
+110
17/07
Away
49 KTP
2:1
+107
13/07
Home
25 SalPa
2:3
+17
06/07
Away
17 KaPa
0:0
+20
29/06
Home
24 SJK Akatemia
1:0
+32
19/06
Home
22 PK-35
2:2
+16
12/06
Away
11 MP
3:0
+50
08/06
Home
43 JIPPO
2:0
+87
After analyzing both teams' last 8 matches, we've assigned 356 points to the home team and 439 points to the away team. This suggests that one team has an advantage over the other. However, it's important to consider that the home team (JIPPO) is playing on their own turf, which may slightly improve their chances of winning.
Accumulated points
To determine what percentage of victories each team achieves at home and away, we've compiled statistics from several recent years to eliminate any chance-related factors. It turns out that 55.56% of victories for the team JIPPO occurred in home matches. For the team TPS this indicator is 60.32%. On average, this equates to 57.94%, suggesting a slight advantage for JIPPO all other things being equal.
Percentage of home wins by teams
JIPPO
JIPPO 55.56%
TPS
TPS 60.32%
Average
Average 57.94%
Now, to determine the favorite of the match, we will take 57.94% of the home team's points and 42.06% of the away team's points. It turns out that the favorite of the match is JIPPO with an advantage of 206 points against 185. If we convert it to a percentage ratio, it will be 52.77% to 47.23%.
Points earned with home win percentage
Now let's see who the bookmakers consider the favorite and compare their data with our calculations. The bookmakers estimate the probability of a draw in this match at 29.15% with a coefficient of 3.43. The coefficient for the home team's victory is 2.92, and for the away team's victory it is 2.73. If we exclude the draw, the probability of the home team's victory will be 48.37%, and the away team's victory - 51.63%. This differs from our calculations.
Comparison of calculated data with bookmakers
Bookmakers
Our calculation
As a result of the analysis conducted, an inaccuracy was found in the bookmaker's line. In our opinion, the probability of JIPPO's victory is an order of magnitude higher than what the bookmakers think. The difference is 3.93%. The coefficient for the team's victory is 2.92, while in reality, it should be 2.67.
Comparison with bookmakers odds
Home Win
Draw
Away Win
Bookmakers
2.92
3.43
2.73
Our calculation
2.67
3.43
2.99
The mathematical analysis of the betting odds for this match did not reveal any significant inaccuracies. We cannot confidently recommend using our forecast for bets on this match, as the potential profit will be minimal.
Home Win
2.92
2024 June
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15 July 2024 - 21 July 2024
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Uruguay. Primera Division
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