For JaPS, we analyze their last 8 matches, taking into account various factors such as the quality of their performance, the match results, the location of the match (whether it was played at home or away), and the strength of their opponents. To determine the strength of the opponents, we look at the results of their previous matches. For each game, we will give the team JaPS conditional points, which later will be used to determine the favorite.
20/07
Away
41 TPS
0:4
+3
17/07
Home
11 MP
1:1
+10
10/07
Away
43 JIPPO
2:3
+42
05/07
Home
49 KTP
0:0
+41
28/06
Home
17 KaPa
2:2
+13
19/06
Away
25 SalPa
3:1
+75
11/06
Away
22 PK-35
1:4
+2
02/06
Home
24 SJK Akatemia
1:1
+17
Similarly, for Jaro, we analyze their last 8 matches using the same approach.
24/07
Home
11 MP
2:0
+29
17/07
Away
22 PK-35
1:2
+24
14/07
Home
49 KTP
5:2
+198
06/07
Away
25 SalPa
1:0
+48
29/06
Home
43 JIPPO
1:0
+58
19/06
Away
17 KaPa
3:0
+84
12/06
Home
24 SJK Akatemia
1:1
+17
02/06
Home
41 TPS
0:1
+20
After analyzing both teams' last 8 matches, we've assigned 203 points to the home team and 478 points to the away team. This suggests that one team has an advantage over the other. However, it's important to consider that the home team (JaPS) is playing on their own turf, which may slightly improve their chances of winning.
Accumulated points
To determine what percentage of victories each team achieves at home and away, we've compiled statistics from several recent years to eliminate any chance-related factors. It turns out that 61.67% of victories for the team JaPS occurred in home matches. For the team Jaro this indicator is 62.5%. On average, this equates to 62.08%, suggesting a slight advantage for JaPS all other things being equal.
Percentage of home wins by teams
JaPS
JaPS 61.67%
Jaro
Jaro 62.5%
Average
Average 62.08%
Now, to determine the favorite of the match, we will take 62.08% of the home team's points and 37.92% of the away team's points. It turns out that the favorite of the match is Jaro with an advantage of 181 points against 126. If we convert it to a percentage ratio, it will be 58.97% to 41.03%.
Points earned with home win percentage
Now let's see who the bookmakers consider the favorite and compare their data with our calculations. The bookmakers estimate the probability of a draw in this match at 18.42% with a coefficient of 5.43. The coefficient for the home team's victory is 8.9, and for the away team's victory it is 1.42. If we exclude the draw, the probability of the home team's victory will be 13.78%, and the away team's victory - 86.23%. This differs from our calculations.
Comparison of calculated data with bookmakers
Bookmakers
Our calculation
As a result of the analysis conducted, an inaccuracy was found in the bookmaker's line. In our opinion, the probability of JaPS's victory is an order of magnitude higher than what the bookmakers think. The difference is 26.14%. The coefficient for the team's victory is 8.9, while in reality, it should be 2.99.
Comparison with bookmakers odds
Home Win
Draw
Away Win
Bookmakers
8.9
5.43
1.42
Our calculation
2.99
5.43
2.08
Our mathematical algorithm has detected significant inaccuracies in the bookmakers' odds for this match. Such a large difference can only mean that we have not taken into account some important factor that allows the bookmakers to set such odds. We cannot confidently recommend using our prediction for betting on this match, as the potential profit will be minimal.
Home Win
8.9
2024 June
QUANTITY 1383
ROI +10.03%
EARNINGS +$13868
2024 July
QUANTITY 1211
ROI +7.75%
EARNINGS +$9384
15 July 2024 - 21 July 2024
QUANTITY 280
ROI +14.85%
EARNINGS +$4158
USA. USL. Championship
Uruguay. Primera Division
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