Ipswich Town vs Newcastle United prediction

Ipswich Town

Match start date: Dec 21, 2024

VS

Tournament: England. Premier League

Place a bet

Newcastle United

Our app uses a special algorithm to predict the outcome of the match between Ipswich Town and Newcastle United. This algorithm is designed to detect any inaccuracies in the bookmakers' odds by analyzing a vast amount of input data.

Ipswich Town

For Ipswich Town, we analyze their last 8 matches, taking into account various factors such as the quality of their performance, the match results, the location of the match (whether it was played at home or away), and the strength of their opponents. To determine the strength of the opponents, we look at the results of their previous matches. For each game, we will give the team Ipswich Town conditional points, which later will be used to determine the favorite.

14/12

Away

13 Wolverhampton Wanderers

2:1

+31

08/12

Home

33 Bournemouth

1:2

+25

03/12

Home

22 Crystal Palace

0:1

+16

30/11

Away

36 Nottingham Forest

0:1

+32

24/11

Home

30 Manchester United

1:1

+26

10/11

Away

34 Tottenham Hotspur

2:1

+60

02/11

Home

19 Leicester City

1:1

+14

26/10

Away

31 Brentford

3:4

+25

Newcastle United

Similarly, for Newcastle United, we analyze their last 8 matches using the same approach.

14/12

Home

19 Leicester City

4:0

+87

07/12

Away

31 Brentford

2:4

+6

04/12

Home

51 Liverpool

3:3

+39

30/11

Away

22 Crystal Palace

1:1

+26

25/11

Home

26 West Ham United

0:2

+3

10/11

Away

36 Nottingham Forest

3:1

+112

02/11

Home

41 Arsenal

1:0

+44

27/10

Away

46 Chelsea

1:2

+40

Identifying the favourite

After analyzing both teams' last 8 matches, we've assigned 227 points to the home team and 357 points to the away team. This suggests that one team has an advantage over the other. However, it's important to consider that the home team (Ipswich Town) is playing on their own turf, which may slightly improve their chances of winning.

Accumulated points

Ipswich Town 227
Newcastle United 357

To determine what percentage of victories each team achieves at home and away, we've compiled statistics from several recent years to eliminate any chance-related factors. It turns out that 55.17% of victories for the team Ipswich Town occurred in home matches. For the team Newcastle United this indicator is 68.25%. On average, this equates to 61.71%, suggesting a slight advantage for Ipswich Town all other things being equal.

Percentage of home wins by teams

Ipswich Town

Ipswich Town 55.17%

Newcastle United

Newcastle United 68.25%

Average

Average 61.71%

Now, to determine the favorite of the match, we will take 61.71% of the home team's points and 38.29% of the away team's points. It turns out that the favorite of the match is Ipswich Town with an advantage of 140 points against 137. If we convert it to a percentage ratio, it will be 50.65% to 49.35%.

Points earned with home win percentage

Ipswich Town 140
Newcastle United 137

Bookmakers odds and probability

Now let's see who the bookmakers consider the favorite and compare their data with our calculations. The bookmakers estimate the probability of a draw in this match at 23.04% with a coefficient of 4.34. The coefficient for the home team's victory is 5.49, and for the away team's victory it is 1.7. If we exclude the draw, the probability of the home team's victory will be 23.69%, and the away team's victory - 76.31%. This differs from our calculations.

Comparison of calculated data with bookmakers

Bookmakers

Ipswich Town 23.69%
Newcastle United 76.31%

Our calculation

Ipswich Town 50.65%
Newcastle United 49.35%

Match prediction

As a result of the analysis conducted, an inaccuracy was found in the bookmaker's line. In our opinion, the probability of Ipswich Town's victory is an order of magnitude higher than what the bookmakers think. The difference is 26.39%. The coefficient for the team's victory is 5.49, while in reality, it should be 2.57.

Comparison with bookmakers odds

Home Win

Draw

Away Win

Bookmakers

5.49

4.34

1.7

Our calculation

2.57

4.34

2.63

Our mathematical algorithm has detected significant inaccuracies in the bookmakers' odds for this match. Such a large difference can only mean that we have not taken into account some important factor that allows the bookmakers to set such odds. We cannot confidently recommend using our prediction for betting on this match, as the potential profit will be minimal.

Home Win

5.49

Our prediction statistics

2024 December

QUANTITY 1837

ROI +3.87%

EARNINGS +$7117

Previous week

QUANTITY 591

ROI +10.45%

EARNINGS +$6176

20 December 2024

QUANTITY 44

ROI +5.2%

EARNINGS +$229

Current football predictions

Netherlands. Eredivisie

21/12

Heracles - Groningen

TOP

Home Win

2.4

14:15

Sparta Rotterdam - Ajax

Away Win

1.78

Turkey. Super Lig

16:00

Goztepe - Caykur Rizespor

Away Win

3.95

Portugal. Segunda Liga

14:00

Pacos de Ferreira - Alverca

TOP

Away Win

3.25

Italy. Serie A

14:30

Roma - Parma

Away Win

6.3

Scotland. Premiership

15:00

Dundee United - Celtic

Home Win

11.86

Germany. Bundesliga 2

15:30

Jahn Regensburg - Darmstadt 98

TOP

Away Win

1.84

15:30

Kaiserslautern - Koln

Home Win

4.14

15:30

Hannover 96 - Hertha Berlin

Home Win

2.17

Spain. Primera Division

16:00

Valencia - Alaves

Home Win

2.41